I had an extraordinary experience at the end of the 2014 baseball season. I attended Derek Jeter’s last game at Yankee Stadium. The extraordinary thing wasn’t merely Jeter’s unbelievable, Hollywood-scripted storybook ending, but that it came at the end of an unbelievable storybook career. All throughout, Jeter has given us moments that have made us in the stands and press box turn and ask each other, “Did you see that?” “Can you believe that?” You literally don’t believe it sometimes. “He did what?”

But we’ve been here, bearing witness to these moments, his whole career. We try to leave a written record for the historians who will come in future generations, who didn’t see him play, trying to explain what he was like—not “how good” he was or “how bad” he was, but how he was.

Simple, right? No. It’s difficult to strive for accuracy when a player continually defies belief. We find ourselves constantly swept into the realm of emotion—of course, because if we didn’t care we wouldn’t bother to research, analyze, and write about him. But when belief comes into the equation, now we’re talking about faith. It was a Tinkerbell moment in the ninth inning at Yankee Stadium on September 25, 2014. The fans were there to say goodbye to their idol regardless of the game’s outcome. The Yankees had been eliminated from contention the day before.

In the seventh inning we thought we saw the last of Jeter, in a broken-bat, RBI-producing at-bat that gave the Yankees the lead. Kinda clutch. But David Robertson, the closer, coughed up two hairballs in the ninth. Two homers let the Orioles tie the game and let the Yankees bat again in the bottom of the inning. With Jeter due up third.

So here’s a piece of history. I saw it. It happened like clockwork: Jose Pirela led off with a hit, was replaced by pinch-runner Antoan Richardson, who was sac-bunted to second by Brett Gardner. Up came Jeter. I call these moments “Tinkerbell” moments because it feels like if the fans clap loud enough, the magic will happen. It doesn’t always; sometimes Mighty Casey strikes out. But this time, with his classic inside-out swing, Jeter laced the first pitch into right, for a completely Jeterian walk-off game-winner. What happened in that game is not in question: the world witnessed it. Yes, that really happened.

But we witnessed Jeter’s whole career. And yet the debates about him are only getting started. At the very first SABR convention I attended (2002 in Boston), one of the first presentations I attended was about who was the better shortstop: Jeter or Nomar. (Results were inconclusive at the time.) I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the elements we debate about Jeter-as-player represent the things we debate most hotly in sabermetrics overall. Was he a “good” or “bad” fielder? We’re still trying to figure out the best way to answer that question for all players. Advanced defensive metrics—that’s the cutting edge.

Jeter was often knocked for not being a power hitter. But how much weight to give to power in overall player evaluation metrics like WAR, total player rating, et cetera—that’s the stuff that top sabermetricians are tinkering with right now, not just in Internet debates, but in the Decision Sciences departments of MLB front offices.

One thing that no one ever knocked about Jeter was his sportsmanship, his demeanor, his “intangibles.” Can psychological “intangibles” be made tangible? Can they be measured? I predict that’s the frontier in player evaluation and development that will be bushwhacked next.

As historians and sabermetricians, our role is dual: both record and interpret. We don’t just write down numbers and names. That doesn’t tell the story. We tell the story.

Sometimes we re-tell the story in light of new information or new insights. In this issue, Bryan Soderholm-Difatte looks back 100 years to how George Stallings eked a championship from the 1914 Braves. David E. Skelton, meanwhile, looks at how the events at the end of the regular season in 1966 might have cost the Dodgers the World Series.

At the other end of the spectrum we have several papers on the subject of predictions and probability itself. What were the odds that Douglas Jordan, Stanley Rothman, John A. Richards, and Matt Haechrel would all have their papers ready for publication at the same time? Slim odds. But sometimes that’s how things work out.

Sometimes amazing things happen. I’m honored to bear witness.

CECILIA M. TAN is SABR’s Publications Editor. She can be reached at ctan@sabr.org.

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This appendix accompanies the article “Probabilities of Victory in Head-to-Head Team Matchups” written by John A. Richards and published in the Fall 2014 Baseball Research Journal.

It presents empirical win probabilities for head-to-head matchups in the seven major league eras defined in that article, as calculated from the full set of decisive games in each era. The format of these tables is exactly the same as that of Table 2 in the full article.

Click the images below to enlarge.

Table 10: Empirical win probabilities in the pre-modern era (1871-1900)

Table 11: Empirical win probabilities in the dead-ball era (1901-1919)

Table 12: Empirical win probabilities in the live-ball era (1920-1946)

Table 13: Empirical win probabilities in the integration era (1947-1960)

Table 14: Empirical win probabilities in the expansion era (1961-1976)

Table 15: Empirical win probabilities in the free-agency era (1977-1996)

Table 16: Empirical win probabilities in the interleague era (1997-2013)

Methodology for Determining Starting Line-Up Platoons

A position “platoon” is defined as two (or sometimes three) players being used in the starting line-up at the same position by their manager on a regular basis depending primarily on whether the opposing starting pitcher is left-handed or right-handed, but also right-handed batting catchers alternated by their manager on a game-to-game basis. I relied on data included under the “Defensive Lineups” tab in the website www.baseball-reference.com for each team in every year beginning in 1914 to determine starting line-up platoons. These data were made available through the painstaking efforts of Retrosheet researchers.

• For starting line-up platoons at any position (or across any of the three outfield positions), left-handed batters are identified by their names in italics. Switch-hitters are identified by an (x) after their name, and their names are italicized for their ability to bat left-handed if the player who shared their position was a right-handed batter.

• I required that a position platoon must have been in effect for at least one month to be acknowledged. This takes into account situations where a manager may have used a platoon combination to replace his intended day-to-day regular at any given position because of injury, illness, or some other reason.

• In some cases, managers platooned aging veterans with younger players. The platoon situation must be obvious, most typically dependent on whether the opposing starter was a right-handed or left-handed pitcher. Veteran players are identified with a (v) after their name.

• In a few cases, young or relatively-recent players in the major leagues were used by their managers in a starting line-up platoon even though both batted from the same side. I determined such platoons based on either one player almost never starting against, for example, left-handed pitchers, or by a clear pattern of use indicating the manager was alternating them virtually game-to-game.

• For any player who was a day-to-day regular in the starting line-up mostly at one position, but who platooned with another player at a different position, his primary position will be noted in parenthesis after his name. I do not include in this rotational mix everyday outfielders who play anywhere in the outfield depending upon which of the platooned players is in the line-up.

• Teams for each year are listed in the order of their final standing for the season. Pennant or division-winning teams are identified in bold face.

National League platoons, 1914-20

NL managers who platooned most often, 1914-1920

• George Stallings (6)—1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, 1918, 1920
• John McGraw (4)—1914, 1917, 1918, 1920
• Wilbert Robinson (3)—1916, 1919, 1920
• Pat Moran (3)—1918, 1919, 1920

Where NL teams platooned, 1914-1920

• Boston Braves (6 years)—10 OF
• Cincinnati Reds (5 years)—2 OF, 5 C
• New York Giants (4 years)—4 OF, 1 C
• St. Louis Cardinals (4 years)—5 OF, 1 C
• Brooklyn Dodgers (3 years)—3 OF
• Pittsburgh Pirates (3 years)—1 OF, 1 C, 1 1B
• Chicago Cubs (2 years)—3 OF
• Philadelphia Phillies (2 years)—1 C, 1 3B

Positions platooned: 28 OF, 9 C, 1 1B, 1 3B

National League platoons, 1921-30

NL managers who platooned most often, 1921-1930

• John McGraw (8)—1921, 1922, 1923, 1924, 1926, 1927, 1928, 1930
• Branch Rickey (6)—1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924, 1925
• Wilbert Robinson (6)—1921, 1922, 1923, 1924, 1926, 1929
• Bill McKechnie (5)—1922, 1923, 1925, 1929, 1930

Where NL teams platooned, 1921-1930

• Boston Braves (8 years)—8 OF, 1 1B
• New York Giants (8 years)—9 OF, 1 C
• St. Louis Cardinals (7 years)—10 OF, 1 1B
• Philadelphia Phillies (7 years)—8 OF, 2 1B, 1 3B
• Brooklyn Dodgers (6 years)—6 OF, 1 3B
• Chicago Cubs (4 years)—5 OF
• Pittsburgh Pirates (3 years)—2 OF, 1 1B
• Cincinnati Reds (1 year)—1 C

Positions platooned: 48 OF, 5 1B, 2 3B, 2 C

National League platoons, 1931-40

NL managers who platooned most often, 1931-1940

• Bill Terry (4)—1932, 1933, 1934, 1940
• Pie Traynor (3)—1934, 1935, 1936

Where NL teams platooned, 1931-1940

• New York Giants (5 years)—5 OF
• Pittsburgh Pirates (5 years)—2 OF, 2 C, 1 3B
• Brooklyn Dodgers (4 years)—3 OF, 2 C
• St. Louis Cardinals (3 years)—3 OF, 1 C
• Cincinnati Reds (2 years)—2 OF, 1 2B
• Chicago Cubs (2 years)—2 OF
• Boston Braves and Philadelphia Phillies (did not platoon this decade)

Positions platooned: 17 OF, 5 C, 1 2B, 1 3B

American League platoons, 1914-20

AL managers who platooned most often, 1914-1920

• Hughie Jennings (4)—1914, 1915, 1919, 1920
• Bill Carrigan (3)—1914, 1915, 1916
• Pants Rowland (3)—1916, 1917, 1918

Where AL teams platooned, 1914-1920

• Boston Red Sox (5 years)—2 OF, 3 1B, 2 C
• Detroit Tigers (4 years)—3 OF, 1 C, 1 3B
• Chicago White Sox (4 years)—4 OF
• Cleveland Indians (3 years)—4 OF
• New York Yankees (2 years)—1 C, 1 OF
• St. Louis Browns (1 year)—1 OF
• Washington Senators (1 year)—1 OF
• Philadelphia Athletics—did not platoon

Positions platooned: 16 OF, 4 C, 3 1B, 1 3B

American League platoons, 1921-30

AL managers who platooned most often, 1921-1930

• Tris Speaker (7)—1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924, 1925
• Miller Huggins (5)—1918, 1925, 1927, 1928, 1929
• Lee Fohl (5)—1916, 1919, 1923, 1924, 1925

Where AL teams platooned, 1921-30

• Cleveland Indians (7 years)—7 OF, 2 C, 2 1B, 1 SS
• Chicago White Sox (5 years)—5 OF, 1 1B
• New York Yankees (5 years)—5 C, 1 OF
• St. Louis Browns (5 years)—3 OF, 2 3B
• Boston Red Sox (4 years)—2 OF, 1 3B
• Detroit Tigers (4 years)—3 OF, 1 SS
• Washington Senators (3 years)—2 OF, 1 C
• Philadelphia Athletics (3 years)—2 OF, 1 C

Positions platooned: 25 OF, 9 C, 3 1B, 3 3B, 2 SS

American League platoons, 1931-40

AL managers who platooned most often, 1931-1940

• Walter Johnson (6)—1929, 1930, 1931, 1932, 1934, 1935
• Bucky Harris (4)—1935, 1936, 1938, 1939
• Joe McCarthy (4)—1935, 1936, 1937, 1938

Where AL teams platooned, 1931-1940

• Washington Senators (7 years)—7 OF, 1 2B, 1 SS
• Cleveland Indians (6 years)—5 OF, 1 C
• St. Louis Browns (5 years)—4 OF, 1 C, 1 3B
• New York Yankees (4 years)—5 OF
• Chicago White Sox (2 years)—2 OF
• Detroit Tigers (2 years)—1 OF, 1 C
• Philadelphia Athletics (1 year)—2B
• Boston Red Sox (did not platoon this decade)

Positions platooned: 24 OF, 3 C, 2 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B