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	<title>Articles.2006-BRJ35 &#8211; Society for American Baseball Research</title>
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		<title>The Composition of Kings: The Monroe Monarchs and the Negro Southern League, 1932</title>
		<link>https://sabr.org/journal/article/the-composition-of-kings-the-monroe-monarchs-and-the-negro-southern-league-1932/</link>
		
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		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Dec 2006 07:39:40 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[When Negro National League officials agreed to close operations for 1932 due to the hard realities of the Great Depression, the usually minor Negro Southern League and the newly created East-West Colored League became black baseball’s “major leagues.” Low attendance figures, disillusionment with the National League collapse, doubts about the ability of the leagues to [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When Negro National League officials agreed to close operations for 1932 due to the hard realities of the Great Depression, the usually minor Negro Southern League and the newly created East-West Colored League became black baseball’s “major leagues.” Low attendance figures, disillusionment with the National League collapse, doubts about the ability of the leagues to complete a season, and the complications of player trade disputes led to a muddled portrait of black baseball in 1932. The collapse of the East-West in early July didn’t help. The cumulative result was an historiographical lapse in coverage of black baseball in 1932. But baseball happened in the black communities that year—baseball with important consequences for the development of the Negro Leagues—and one of the year’s most relevant teams was the Monroe Monarchs.</p>
<p>Monroe was in the northeast corner of Louisiana, the hub of a poor cotton-farming region in the Mississippi Delta approximately 70 miles from the river and 40 from the Arkansas border.1 Its 10,112 African Americans constituted 38.9% of the city’s 26,028 residents. Almost 43% of the black population was out of work, and almost 17% were unable to read. 19,041 of Ouachita Parish’s 54,337 were black. Of those, close to 10,000 were gainfully employed and slightly more than 3,000 were illiterate.2 In 1919, Monroe earned the moniker “lynch law center of Louisiana,” and from the turn of the century to the close of 1918, the region witnessed 30 lynchings.3 As Michael Lomax demonstrated in his study of 19th-century black baseball entrepreneurship, the Negro Leagues as a “unifying element” of a community is so common and self- evident a conclusion that it lacks any tangible edifying power.4 Monroe’s situation, however, served as a paradigmatic example of the need for this “unifying element.” And unlike many small town baseball teams, the Monarchs’ impact extended far beyond Monroe’s city limits.</p>
<p>Fred Stovall wanted his Monarchs to be part of a new league in 1932 rather than the 1931 Texas League, which his team won. A white Dallas native, Stovall came to Monroe in 1917, and by 1932 owned both the Stovall Drilling Company and the J. M. Supply Company, among other enterprises, allowing him to found his black baseball team in 1930 with drilling employees. He never incorporated the team, even after its success led him to hire veteran professionals. Even before the pros arrived, however, Stovall built his team—and the larger black community, many of whom he employed at his various businesses—Casino Park, which included not only a ball field but a swimming pool and dance pavilion. Historian Robert Peterson echoes contemporary reports that the erection of the stadium was largely the product of generosity. (Of course, Stovall was a businessman, and the entry fees of 25 and 50 cents demonstrated that profit was also a motive.)5</p>
<p>Through a series of negotiations, Stovall maneuvered his team into the newly formed Negro Southern League for 1932, with a far more prestigious roster of teams than Monroe had ever faced. The Atlanta Black Crackers, Birmingham Black Barons, Memphis Red Sox, Montgomery Grey Sox, Little Rock Greys, and Nashville Elite Giants were joined by newcomers the Indianapolis ABCs, Louisville Black Caps, and Chicago American Giants (under the new ownership of Robert A. Cole), along with the Monarchs.6</p>
<p>The Monarchs acquitted themselves well the first half of the season. They were 33–7 on the Fourth of July. Chicago’s 30–9 record kept them slightly behind the Monarchs. “All is not well in the Southern League,” the <em>Chicago Defender</em> reported. League President Reuben B. Jackson issued a ruling at the close of the first-half schedule that, due to its use of players claimed by other teams, two Memphis Red Sox games against Cole’s American Giants would be forfeited. Rather than nullifying the outcomes, however, Jackson ruled the games to be Chicago wins. The controversial decision gave Chicago the first-half pennant.7</p>
<p>The <em>Louisiana Weekly</em> acknowledged the league ruling on the games, but declared Monroe the victor anyway. The paper’s coverage noted the protests mailed to the league office by Monroe fans, arguing that the NSL attempted “to give the Chicago nine something they have not rightfully won. All the southern papers as well as some of the northern and eastern papers carry the standing just as it is with Monroe leading and naturally, the fans are not fooled.”8</p>
<p>Various reports of the first-half standings led to uncertainty. The <em>Defender’s</em> first half standings gave Chicago first place with a 34–7 record, while Monroe was 33–7.9 The <em>Morning World</em> reported that the Monarchs’ record trumped Chicago’s 28–9.10 As of mid-August, the remainder of the Southern League season seemed in doubt, with Monroe (according to the <em>Defender</em>) not playing any league games, and Chicago canceling a scheduled trip to Memphis. Montgomery, Atlanta, Little Rock, and Birmingham had already abandoned league play.11</p>
<p>In this confused state, Nashville took the second-half pennant. Although Chicago and Nashville began referring to the NSL championship as the only championship, the Pittsburgh Crawfords (who played games against the East-West and the Southern, not officially joining either in 1932) scheduled a series with the Monroe Monarchs billed in most black weeklies as the “World Series.”12 The season had been as beneficial for the Crawfords as it had for the Monarchs. Gus Greenlee, the team’s owner, took the opportunity created by the financial destitution of the leagues to lure the best players from its Pittsburgh rival, the Homestead Grays. The Crawfords moved from beneath the shadow of Cumberland Posey’s Grays to become a premier team in their own right. When playing at home, the Crawfords played in the newly opened Greenlee Park, which held 6,000 fans.13</p>
<p>The Monarchs opened their World Series in front of a capacity crowd on September 3. “Returns of the games at Pittsburgh will be given at Tenth and Desiard Streets every day starting about 2 o’clock,” announced the <em>Morning World</em>. “This is the first time a Negro southern team has won the right to take part in the Negro World Series and the entire south is pulling for the Monarchs to win the series.” The first game in front of that crowd was unsuccessful for the Monarchs, while the second was a win.</p>
<p>The Monarchs broke a 1–1 tie in the 10th inning for what would be their only World Series victory. The following day was Labor Day, and the Pittsburgh fans celebrated “Louisiana Day” in honor of the visiting Monarchs as the team from Monroe lost a doubleheader. “The hustling, whole-hearted assault of the Monarchs, even though behind, made a hit with Greenlee field fans,” reported the <em>Courier</em>. “Rounds of applause greeted their determined efforts to stage a batting rally at two or three different points.” One of the Labor Day doubleheader losses served as an exhibition game, “with gate receipts going to charity,” so the Monarchs returned home down two games to one.14</p>
<p>For the first home game, Stovall made arrangements with area railroads, both the Missouri Pacific and Illinois Central, “for the purpose of bringing spectators from Little Rock, New Orleans, Alexandria, Shreveport and intervening points.” Though Chicago defeated Nashville four games to three to take the “Dixie World Series,” the Monarchs held a Negro Southern League pennant-raising ceremony prior to the opening inning of the first home game against Pittsburgh. The game that followed served as something of an anticlimax as the teams played to a 6–6 tie before darkness halted the contest. The following day, a September 11 Crawfords win made them one short of series victory. On September 12, the Monarchs lost once and for all.15</p>
<p>The Crawfords’ 1932 squad was managed by Oscar Charleston, who also played first base. Josh Gibson, Judy Johnson, Satchel Paige, and Ted Radcliffe were also on the team. Those players are now in the pantheon of Negro Leagues immortals. The Crawfords, too, continued to be a successful franchise even after its stars moved to other teams. Monroe, however, quickly faded away. The team resumed play in a reformulated “minor” Dixie League the following season and dissolved by 1936. But many of its players—who contributed to such a successful season and brought a small Southern town, “the lynch law center of Louisiana,” to the precipice of a national championship (however makeshift it may have been)—went on to successful careers in larger markets.</p>
<p>Indeed, their talent was prolific. Homer “Blue Goose” Curry (a late-season addition from Memphis) played left field and pitched for the team, later enjoying a long and distinguished career with the Baltimore Elite Giants, Philadelphia Stars, and (again) Memphis Red Sox. Catcher Harry Else went on to play in the mid-1930s with the Kansas City Monarchs, making the East-West All-Star game in 1936. Monroe’s shortstop, Leroy Morney, had a well-traveled but substantial all-star career for a variety of Negro National League teams through 1944. Pitchers Barney Morris and Samuel Thompson enjoyed success after leaving Monroe, Morris with the New York Cubans and Thompson with the Philadelphia Stars and Chicago American Giants.</p>
<p>Right fielder Zollie Wright was another former Monarch to become an East-West All-Star, playing for Baltimore, New York, and Philadelphia. Roy Parnell played center field and pitched for the Monarchs. He played on a variety of minor Southern teams before coming to Monroe. His most productive years came with the Philadelphia Stars in the 1940s, and his success earned him candidacy for a special 2006 Negro and Pre-Negro Leagues election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Though Parnell was ultimately not included in the final group of enshrined players, his candidacy validates his talent.</p>
<p>But the player who would become the most famous on the team did not join it until late August, when he came to Monroe from the Austin Black Senators. Hilton Smith’s impressive showing against the Monarchs convinced the team to purchase his rights for the remainder of the season, and he would stay in Monroe for two more years. Smith would become a powerful pitcher for the Kansas City Monarchs in the 1930s and 1940s, though his career was often overshadowed by fellow Kansas City pitcher (and former 1932 World Series foe) Satchel Paige. He is now a member of the National Baseball Hall of Fame.16</p>
<p>The statistics of these players and the rest of the 1932 Monarchs that follow are necessarily incomplete. The statistical inconsistencies of the Negro Leagues were only exacerbated in the Monarchs’ situation by (1) a newly created league struggling to stay afloat in the face of the Depression and (2) the realities of a small-town Southern team two years from its inception and four from its eventual demise. Monroe had a viable black press in 1932, though its <em>Southern Broadcast</em> did not begin until the middle of the year. Sherman Briscoe founded the <em>Broadcast</em>, which remained a solvent publication until 1939. Though Briscoe went on to serve as a press officer for the U.S. Department of Agriculture and Executive Director of the National Newspaper Publishers Association, his paper’s longevity did not match his own. Only scattered editions of the Southern Broadcast from 1936 and 1937 now exist.17</p>
<p>Many of the surviving box scores of the Monarchs’ 1932 season come from the town’s white newspapers, the <em>Monroe Morning World</em> and the <em>Monroe News Star</em>, which, when compared with far larger mainstream newspapers in far larger markets, gave a significant amount of coverage to the local black team. Though many African-American papers throughout the nation published reports of the Monarchs’ games, fewer carried box scores. The <em>Louisiana Weekly</em>, <em>Memphis World</em>, <em>Atlanta Daily World</em>, <em>Chicago Defender</em>, and <em>Pittsburgh Courier</em> were among those who did.</p>
<p>What follows is an attempt to take some of the raw data from those papers and from other sources to create a statistical archive of the 1932 season—a measured documentation of a team whose prior appearances in scholarly work has been scarce and woefully unmeasured.</p>
<p>Part 2 of this study provides the Monarchs’ schedule and results, along with win and loss totals divided by month and by team played. It compares Monroe’s played schedule with the print- ed schedule as announced by the Negro Southern League. Finally, the section compares the author’s results to other statistical tallies from encyclopedic accounts that are incomplete and incorrect. Part 3 provides a timeline of player and personnel acquisitions prior to and during the season.</p>
<p>Part 4 catalogues the Monarchs’ 1932 roster and compares the complete roster to the accounts of other encyclopedic treatments that are incomplete and incorrect. The fifth and final part provides a statistical analysis of the available data for the Monarchs’ 1932 season. It includes an evaluation of the statistics of Monarchs’ opponents and leaders from other leagues to gauge the comparative success of the team.</p>
<p>Throughout most of the 1930s, the Monroe Monarchs remained on the periphery of Negro Leagues baseball. But the 1932 team proved a success. A questionable midseason decision by the president of the Negro Southern League kept the Monarchs from a pennant, but their participation in what most of the nation considered the black baseball championship for 1932 gave the team its proverbial 15 minutes of fame. What follows is an attempt to document those 15 minutes of fame, to return them to black baseball’s historical memory.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><em>Click on images to enlarge:</em></p>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-1.jpg"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-94861" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-1.jpg" alt="Monroe Monarchs stats (THOMAS AIELLO)" width="612" height="792" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-1.jpg 612w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-1-232x300.jpg 232w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-1-545x705.jpg 545w" sizes="(max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-2.jpg"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-94860" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-2.jpg" alt="Monroe Monarchs stats (THOMAS AIELLO)" width="612" height="792" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-2.jpg 612w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-2-232x300.jpg 232w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-2-545x705.jpg 545w" sizes="(max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-3.jpg"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-94859" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-3.jpg" alt="Monroe Monarchs stats (THOMAS AIELLO)" width="612" height="792" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-3.jpg 612w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-3-232x300.jpg 232w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-3-545x705.jpg 545w" sizes="(max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-4.jpg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-94858" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-4.jpg" alt="Monroe Monarchs stats (THOMAS AIELLO)" width="612" height="792" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-4.jpg 612w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-4-232x300.jpg 232w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-4-545x705.jpg 545w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-5.jpg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-94857" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-5.jpg" alt="Monroe Monarchs stats (THOMAS AIELLO)" width="612" height="792" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-5.jpg 612w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-5-232x300.jpg 232w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-5-545x705.jpg 545w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-6.jpg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-94856" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-6.jpg" alt="Monroe Monarchs stats (THOMAS AIELLO)" width="612" height="792" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-6.jpg 612w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-6-232x300.jpg 232w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-6-545x705.jpg 545w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-7.jpg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-94855" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-7.jpg" alt="Monroe Monarchs stats (THOMAS AIELLO)" width="612" height="792" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-7.jpg 612w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-7-232x300.jpg 232w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-7-545x705.jpg 545w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-8.jpg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-94854" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-8.jpg" alt="Monroe Monarchs stats (THOMAS AIELLO)" width="612" height="792" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-8.jpg 612w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-8-232x300.jpg 232w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-8-545x705.jpg 545w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-9.jpg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-94853" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-9.jpg" alt="Monroe Monarchs stats (THOMAS AIELLO)" width="612" height="792" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-9.jpg 612w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-9-232x300.jpg 232w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/Monroe-Monarchs-9-545x705.jpg 545w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /></a></p>
<p><em><strong>THOMAS AIELLO</strong> is a doctoral candidate in the Department of History at the University of Arkansas.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Notes</strong></p>
<ol>
<li>
<p>Fifteenth Census of the United States: 1930, vol. III, part I, Alabama–Missouri (US Government Printing Office, Washington: 1932), 979.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Fifteenth Census, vol. III, 965, 982, 990, 999, 1003.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>New Orleans Item, May 6, 1919; New Orleans Times-Picayune, May 12, 1919; “The Monroe Lynching,” Southwestern Christian Advocate, June 12, 1919, 1–2; National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, Thirty Years of Lynching in the United States, 1889–1918 (New York: Arno Press, 1969), 71–73, 104–105; and Papers of the NAACP, Part 7: The Anti-Lynching Campaign, 1912–1955, Series A, reel 12 of 30 (Bethesda, MD: University Publications of America, 1982), 348–352, 354, 356, 373–380, 383, 393.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Michael E. Lomax, Black Baseball Entrepreneurs, 1860–1901: Operating by Any Means Necessary (Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press, 2003), xv–-xvi, xvii.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Robert Peterson, Only the Ball Was White: A History of Legendary Black Players and All-Black Professional Teams (New York: Oxford University Press, 1970), 122; DeMorris Smith, interview, September 2, 2004; “The Realty Investment Co. Ltd. to J.M. Supply Co. Inc.—Mortgage Deed, Sale of Land,” Record 79482, April 23, 1927, Conveyance Record, Ouachita Parish, Book 157, pp. 775–778, Ouachita Parish Clerk of Court; “J.M. Supply Co., Inc. to the Realty Investment Co., Ltd.—Mortgage Deed, Vendor’s Lien,” Record 79482, April 23, 1927, Mortgage Record, Ouachita Parish, Book 129, pp. 707–710, Ouachita Parish Clerk of Court; “J.M. Supply Co., Inc. to Fred Stovall—Cash Deed, Sale of Land,” Record 139386, May 21, 1930, Conveyance Record, Ouachita Parish, Book 20, pp. 435–456, Ouachita Parish Clerk of Court; Philip J. Lowry, Green Cathedrals: The Ultimate Celebration of All 271 Major League and Negro League Ballparks Past and Present (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., 1992), 81; and Who’s Who in the Twin Cities (West Monroe: H.H. Brinsmade, 1931), 167.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Atlanta Daily World, 20, March 22, 1932; Pittsburgh Courier, March 19, 1932; and Birmingham Reporter, 12, March 26, 1932, April 2, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Chicago Defender, 4, 11, June 25, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Louisiana Weekly, July 9, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>This is the formula generally repeated in historical accounts. Peterson’s Only the Ball Was White sets the standings as follows: Cole’s American Giants, 34–7, .829 winning percentage; Monroe Monarchs, 33–7, .825 winning percentage. The account of Dick Clark and Larry Lester is the same for the two front-running teams. John Holway’s The Complete Book of Baseball’s Negro Leagues offered a season total for the Southern League teams, and wrongly noted “Nashville was awarded the first half, Chicago the second.”: Chicago American Giants, 52–31, .627 winning percentage; Monroe Monarchs, 26–22, .542 winning percentage. Chicago Defender, July 23, 1932; Robert Peterson, Only the Ball Was White; Dick Clark and Larry Lester, eds., The Negro Leagues Book (Cleveland: Society for American Baseball Research, 1994), 164; and John Holway, The Complete Book of Baseball’s Negro Leagues: The Other Half of Baseball History (Fern Park, FL: Hastings House, 2001), 288, 292–293. See Part 2 for further details.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>According to the Morning World, the first-half standings looked like this: Monroe, 33–7, .825 winning percentage; Chicago, 28–9, .756 winning percentage. The Pittsburgh Courier’s first-half standings as of July 3 tallied eight losses for Chicago: Monroe, 31–7, .816 winning percentage; Chicago, 31–8, .795 winning percentage. In contrast to Holway’s 26 wins and 22 losses for the season, the Courier tallied Monroe’s total as 60 wins and 22 losses. Monroe Morning World, July 6, 1932; and Pittsburgh Courier, July 9, 1932, September 3, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Monroe Morning World, July 28, 1932; Pittsburgh Courier, July 16, 1932; and Chicago Defender, July 9, 1932, August 13, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>For more on coverage of the series by the African-American press in 1932, see Thomas Aiello, “Black Newspapers’ Presentation of Black Baseball, 1932: A Case of Cultural Forgetting,” NINE: A Journal of Baseball History and Culture 15 (Fall 2006).</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Jim Bankes, The Pittsburgh Crawfords: The Lives and Times of Black Baseball’s Most Exciting Team (Dubuque, IA: William C. Brown Publishers, 1991), 23, 26–27; Chicago Defender, July 2, 1932; and Pittsburgh Courier, April 9, 1932, August 27, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Much of this brief treatment of the 1932 World Series comes from Thomas Aiello, “The Casino and Its Kings Are Gone: The Transient Relationship of Monroe, Louisiana with Major League Black Baseball, 1932,” North Louisiana History 37 (Winter 2006): 15–38. Though one of the Pittsburgh games was scheduled to be played in Cleveland, all took place at Greenlee Park. Pittsburgh Courier, September 10, 1932; Chicago Defender, August 27, 1932; Monroe Morning World, August 31, 1932, September 10, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Monroe Morning World, September 13, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Two years later, another Hall of Fame player would come from Shreveport to start his career with the Monroe Monarchs. Willard Brown played shortstop for the team before being purchased by J.L. Wilkinson to play for the Kansas City Monarchs. The same special 2006 Hall of Fame election that failed to elect Roy Parnell did elect Brown for induction. Much of this brief account comes from Riley’s Biographical Encyclopedia, 206–207, 209, 266–267, 568, 569–570, 605, 723–725, 781–782, 884–885. Additional information from “Hilton Smith Autobiographical Account,” Player File: Smith, Hilton, A. Bartlett Giamatti Research Center, National Baseball Hall of Fame, Cooperstown, NY; Tri-State Defender, April 13, 1974; “Pre-Negro Leagues Candidate Profile: Roy A. ‘Red’ Parnell,” National Baseball Hall of Fame, www.baseballhalloffame.org/hofers_and_honorees/parnell_red.htm, accessed February 21, 2006; “Pre-Negro Leagues Candidate Profile: Willard Jessie ‘Home Run’ Brown,” National Baseball Hall of Fame, www. baseballhalloffame.org/hofers_and_honorees/brown_willard. htm, accessed February 21, 2006; and Steve Rock, “Former Monarchs Pitcher Hilton Smith Elected to Baseball Hall of Fame,” Kansas City Star, March 7, 2001.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Jessie Parkhurst Guzman, ed., 1952 Negro Year Book: A Review of Events Affecting Negro Life (New York: William H. Wise &amp; Co., 1952), v; Who’s Who Among Black Americans, 1977–1978, 2nd ed., vol. 1 (Northbrook, IL: Who’s Who Among Black Americans Publishing Company, 1978), 98; and Southern Broadcast, July 11, 1936, February 6, 1937.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The exhibitions were against the Rube Foster Memorial Giants—often confused, even in contemporary press reports— as the Chicago American Giants. A series of articles in the Kansas City Call in early April report on both teams and make their differences clear. Kansas City Call, 1, April 8, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The game total by this count is 42, with 35 wins and six losses (minus the exhibitions). This differs from any other account, contemporary or historical, of the season’s first half. I stand by this count. The selective presentation by newspapers and the overall confused state of Negro League Baseball in 1932 both argue for the necessity of a new count. The contemporary and historical controversy over the first half standings, if nothing else, discredits any consistency in former counts. See below for a catalog of other tallies and for the Monarchs’ original schedule as announced by the Negro Southern League in March 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Available box scores come from the following sources: Monroe Morning World, March 27, 1932, April 4, 5, 11, 12, 1932, May 7, 8, 9, 15, 22, 1932, June 12, 13, 14, 19, 20, 21, 1932, July 3, 4, 5, 1932, August 1, 2, 8, 9, 29, 30, 31, 1932, September 5, 11, 12, 1932; Monroe News Star, May 16, 17, 23, 1932; Memphis Commercial Appeal, May 1, 2, 3, 1932, July 10, 11, 12, 1932; Pittsburgh Courier, September 10, 1932; Kansas City Call, April 22, 1932; Chicago Defender, June 11, 1932, July 2, 16, 23, 1932; Atlanta Daily World, June 30, 1932, Afro-American, July 23, 1932; and Louisiana Weekly, September 17, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The four final games with the Lincoln Giants of Alexandria, Louisiana are considered exhibition games, as they take place after the close of the World Series.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Pittsburgh Courier, 19 March 1932; and Atlanta Daily World, March 22, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Pittsburgh Courier, July 16, 1932; and Chicago Defender, July 9, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Robert Peterson, Only the Ball Was White: A History of Legendary Black Players and All-Black Professional Teams (New York: Oxford University Press, 1970), 269; and Dick Clark and Larry Lester, eds., The Negro Leagues Book (Cleveland: Society for American Baseball Research, 1994), 164.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>John Holway, The Complete Book of Baseball’s Negro Leagues: The Other Half of Baseball History (Fern Park, FL: Hastings House Publishers, 2001), 288, 292–293.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Monroe Morning World, July 6, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Pittsburgh Courier, July 9, 1932, September 3, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Pittsburgh Courier, September 3, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Louisiana Weekly, March 5, 1932; and Shreveport Sun, March 19, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Murray never played for the Monarchs in the first half of the season. He somehow made his way to Memphis, before returning to the Monarchs in late August. See below. Monroe News Star, March 24, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Chicago Defender, April 2, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Monroe Morning World, April 8, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Monroe Morning World, April 9, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Monroe Morning World, April 21, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Louisiana Weekly, May 21, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Thompson was the losing pitcher on Tuesday, 19 July loss to Chicago, described by the Chicago Defender as the “former Indianapolis twirler.” Chicago Defender, July 23, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Announced in the Monroe Morning World, August 26, 1932. But the players appeared in games versus the Lincoln Giants beginning on August 11.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>His first appearance came at Austin, August 22, 1932. Monroe Morning World, August 23, 26, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Monroe Morning World, September 10, 1932.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>See “The Walker Discrepancy” in Part 5.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Gillespie was suspended by the Southern League for the second half of the season. See Pittsburgh Courier, September 7, 1932 for his return.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Batting average is the only statistic in this section not physically provided by the actual box scores. Further derivative statistics follow under the heading “Derivative Statistics.”</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>On June 12, the Monarchs played a doubleheader with the Montgomery Grey Sox, and the box score for the first game lists the left fielder as Maher—a name never mentioned before or after. The number of incorrect spellings and misinterpretations of names leads the observer to conclude that the handwritten box score submission that included Walker appeared to be Maher to the Monroe Morning World’s typesetter. Walker (Maher) was 1 for 4 with 0 runs.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>There here exists a discrepancy that must be acknowledged. James Riley’s The Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Baseball Leagues lists two Walkers as players for the 1932 Monarchs. Neither are very well known. W. Walker is listed as a left fielder. H. Walker is listed as a catcher. In a game against the Chicago American Giants, the box score of which appears in the Chicago Defender, 23 July 1932, Walker is listed as playing lf and c in the Saturday box score. The dearth of information available about these players (even accurate first names) leaves open the very real possibility that this is these two players are the same, particularly with the prevalence of box score typographical errors. Box scores generally list “Walker” and a position, so absolute accuracy is impossible. For the sake of the best possible sample, however, I have separated the catching Walker from the left fielding Walker. One newspaper account, however, describes W. Walker as W.C. Walker, “former Campbell College star.” This information doesn’t discount the possibility that H. and W. Walker were different players, but it seems to suggest that there was one known Walker on the team, making the possibility that W.C. Walker was the only member of the 1932 Monarchs more than plausible. Atlanta Daily World, 15 September 1932; and James Riley, The Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Baseball Leagues (New York: Carroll and Graf Publishers, Inc., 1994), 809, 811. Following the combined season totals below, the statistics of both possible Walkers are combined to demonstrate the totals of one player, W.C., (in the event that the Walkers were indeed one player) under the heading “The Walker Discrepancy,” page 10.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>All totals derived from the available data. Wins, losses, and scores are totals from Part 2: 1932 Monroe Monarchs Schedule and Results. Statistical performance numbers are totals from the “Season Totals” section of Part 5: Statistical Analysis of the Available Data for the 1932 Monroe Monarchs, page 8. As in the First and Second Half statistical breakdowns, exhibition games with available scores (with the exception of those taking place after the close of the World Series) are included in the total runs scored and allowed.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Winning percentage is the only pitching statistic not physically provided by the actual box scores. The lack of consistent details about specific pitching performance categories makes derivative pitching statistics virtually impossible to provide. The percentage is calculated by dividing the number of wins by the number of decisions.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The run totals for this section of the team statistics are derived from available box scores, and thus from fewer games than are the run totals based solely on the reported wins and losses. Addition of runs not included in the box scores cannot be included in this section, as they would skew the representative sample the box score statistical analysis is supposed to provide.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Batting average is the only statistic in this section not physically provided by the actual box scores. Further derivative statistics follow under the heading “Derivative Statistics.”</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Batting average is simply the batter’s number of hits divided by his number of at bats (AB above).</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Slugging percentage follows this formula: [singles + (2 x doubles) + (3 x triples) + (4 x home runs)] / at bats.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The total bases statistic follows this formula: singles + (2 x doubles) + (3 x triples) + (4 x home runs).</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The isolated power statistic follows this formula: total bases – hits / at bats. The original formula calculated the “total bases” by awarding a 0 for singles, 1 for doubles, 2 for triples, and 3 for home runs. Here, total bases is calculated as described in note 3 above.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Home run ratio is calculated by dividing the number of a batter’s home runs by his number of at bats.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Batting average is the only statistic in this section not physically provided by the actual box scores. Further derivative statistics follow under the heading “Derivative Statistics,” pages 26-27.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Note, as mentioned above, that hits, runs, errors, and at bats are the most consistently noted statistics. In this section, for example, though Chicago has scored 15 runs, they have no listed rbi’s. The box scores for games with Chicago did not include rbi as a statistic, and so is not there. While the first four numbers are clearly the most complete, the numbers to the left of the rbi column are reasonably accurate. The same derivatives generated above are generated below the hard numbers section. The given numbers are for the games noted in Part 2, “1932 Monroe Monarchs Schedule and Results,” as having an available box score. The total number of games used to derive each team’s statistics against the Monarchs follows the team name in parentheses.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The Pittsburgh statistics presented here include the three World Series games with available box scores and the early exhibition game. Pittsburgh’s individual and team World Series statistics are included below.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The statistics here correspond to the three box scores used to compile the Monarchs World Series statistics. See above.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>This Jud Wilson, one in a litany of future Hall of Fame inductees from the 1932 Crawfords, is the same Jud Wilson who led the 1932 East-West League in batting average for 1932. Wilson moved to the Crawfords after the East-West collapse. See below.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The East-West League, the other major Negro Baseball League in 1932, folded early in June. The final statistical release by the league was published in the Baltimore Afro American, 11 June 1932. The statistics and derivative numbers for individual and team East-West sections come from that source.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Minimum of fifty at bats, for batting average and the rest of the East-West League statistical leaders.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Smith was 4 and 0 in six games, with thirty innings pitched.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The Cuban Stars’ home run ratio just edges Baltimore’s .017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>This statistic comes from the Baltimore Afro American, 25 June 1932. Soon after this standings release, the league folded.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The Cotton States League was a white minor league of teams from Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. It included, among other teams, the Monroe Twins, who played across town from the Monarchs in Desiard Park. The league, however, did not outlast the NSL. It folded early in July. The final statistical release by the league was published in the Monroe Morning World, 10 July 1932. The statistics and derivative numbers for individual and team Cotton States sections come from that source, as do the Monroe Twins statistics that follow.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Minimum of fifty innings pitched imposed by the author.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The Pine Bluff rookie came from Dallas, and though the local paper used first names in its reports on the Pine Bluff Judges, Danforth was always called C.B., often with the nickname “Tarzan” added. Pine Bluff Daily Graphic, 22, 24, 26 April 1932, 1, 15, 27 May 1932.</p>
</li>
</ol>
]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Effect of Batting Order (Not Lineup) on Scoring</title>
		<link>https://sabr.org/journal/article/effect-of-batting-order-not-lineup-on-scoring/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[admin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Nov 2006 21:52:12 +0000</pubDate>
				<guid isPermaLink="false">https://sabr.org/?post_type=journal_articles&#038;p=94340</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[This present study is an outgrowth of my presentation in 2004 at SABR 34 in which I addressed the pattern of scoring in a game, such as the possible importance of one-run wins, come-from-behind wins, etc. The first point to establish is the rate of scoring by home and road teams in each inning. The [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This present study is an outgrowth of my presentation in 2004 at SABR 34 in which I addressed the pattern of scoring in a game, such as the possible importance of one-run wins, come-from-behind wins, etc. The first point to establish is the rate of scoring by home and road teams in each inning. The results for 1957–2005 are in Figure 1.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.02.15-PM.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-94342" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.02.15-PM-300x205.png" alt="Figure 1: Average Runs in Each Inning, 1957-2005" width="315" height="215" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.02.15-PM-300x205.png 300w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.02.15-PM-495x340.png 495w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.02.15-PM.png 498w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 315px) 100vw, 315px" /></a></p>
<p><em>(Click all images to enlarge)</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Two points of special note are:</p>
<ol>
<li>
<p>More runs are scored in the first inning than any other, and this difference is by a wide margin, especially for the home team.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The home team averages more runs than the visitors in each of the first eight innings, although that pattern reverses in the ninth inning and later.</p>
</li>
</ol>
<p>This second point deserves an additional comment. At first glance, it might seem surprising that the home team scoring drops so dramatically in the ninth and extra innings. However, most of this apparent decline is accounted for by the fact of “walk-off” wins. That is, when the home team gets enough runs to win in the ninth inning or later, they stop batting, with the result that fewer total runs are scored. For the period studied here, 1957–2005, there were 9,053 walk-off wins, which works out to one in every 10.5 games. This sizable number would seem to be enough to account for a substantial portion of the observed drop. Included in this total are 4,646 extra-inning wins by the home team, all of which are, of course, walk-offs.</p>
<p>My friend Clem Comly suggested a different way to look at scoring rate for these innings, which is to normalize scoring per three outs made in each inning. In this way the partial innings of the walk-offs will be mitigated to some extent. The result of that recalculation is seen in Figure 2.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-4.57.53-PM.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-94343" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-4.57.53-PM-300x177.png" alt="Figure 2" width="319" height="188" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-4.57.53-PM-300x177.png 300w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-4.57.53-PM.png 574w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 319px) 100vw, 319px" /></a></p>
<p>The values for the first eight innings are, of course, unchanged, as are those for the visitors in the ninth and extra innings. The rates for the home team in these last two categories are increased, as expected, but they don’t quite catch up to the visitors because there are still many potential runs that are not scored due to the walkoffs.</p>
<p>It occurred to me and to several who saw these results at SABR34 that a good place to start in trying to figure out the underlying factors causing this pattern was to consider which batters were likely to bat in each inning. Therefore, I began my journey into the land of lineup studies, territory already well staked out by Mark Pankin (see, for example: <a href="http://www.pankin.com/markov/btn1191.pdf">http://www.pankin.com/markov/btn1191.pdf</a> ). However, Mark’s pioneering work has concentrated on the starting lineup and how variations there can affect scoring. He also made great use of sophisticated modeling to explore these questions in very interesting ways. Tom Ruane has also done some Markov modeling work on the effect of lineups (<a href="http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/RuaneT/lineup_art.htm">www.retrosheet.org/Research/RuaneT/lineup_art.htm</a>).</p>
<p>My approach here is a bit different in two ways. First, I looked at actual performance data, not model results, and second, I focused on the consequences of different lineup positions batting first in a given inning, not on the starting lineup. It is essential to distinguish clearly between the starting lineup and the batting order in a given inning. When I refer to the starting lineup, I will use the term “lineup slots,” whereas when I refer to the batting order in an inning, I will speak of the first batter, second batter, etc.</p>
<div class="page" title="Page 87">
<p>This analysis requires play-by-play data and I used the Retrosheet files from 1957 through 2005, as summarized in Table 1.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.08.57-PM.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-94344" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.08.57-PM-300x124.png" alt="Table 1: Data for Present Study, 1957-2005" width="380" height="157" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.08.57-PM-300x124.png 300w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.08.57-PM.png 514w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 380px) 100vw, 380px" /></a></p>
</div>
<div class="page" title="Page 87">
<p>The basic pattern of which batter leads off an inning is shown in the following two tables, with raw totals in Table 2 and the same information in percentage form in Table 3, which allows much easier comparisons.</p>
<p>There are several interesting features here. First of all is the surprise that there was actually a first inning in which the batter in the 8th slot batted first! This occurred on June 9, 1961 (game 2) in Boston when the Angels had a batting out of order situation which resulted in the first and eighth-place batters swapping places the first time through the order. The lineup slot which bats first most often in an inning moves around the lineup fairly smoothly as the game progresses. The highlighted boxes in Table 3 indicate the three lineup slots which lead off each inning most frequently. Those marked in boldface are those in which the three most frequent slots to bat first are at least 40% of the total. Those underlined are less than 40%. In the second inning, the leading three slots (number 4 through 6) comprise over 81% of the total and by the ninth inning, the three most frequent are just under 36%, reflecting the expected randomization in the first slot as the game proceeds.</p>
<div>
<h5 align="center"> </h5>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><strong>Table 2. Number of Times Each Lineup Slot Batted First in an Inning</strong></p>
</div>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="23">
<p><strong>Slot</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="39">
<p><strong>1</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p><strong>2</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p><strong>3</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="42">
<p><strong>4</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="41">
<p><strong>5</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="40">
<p><strong>6</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p><strong>7</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="41">
<p><strong>8</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p><strong>9</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p><strong>Extra</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="39">
<p><strong>Total</strong></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="23">
<p>1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="39">
<p>191509</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p>1992</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p>36609</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="42">
<p>16260</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="41">
<p>25562</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="40">
<p>26305</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p>20948</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="41">
<p>24872</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p>15844</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p>5063</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="39">
<p>364964</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="23">
<p>2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="39">
<p>0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p>616</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p>20841</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="42">
<p>26610</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="41">
<p>16393</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="40">
<p>26203</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p>17268</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="41">
<p>23309</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p>15157</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p>4661</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="39">
<p>151058</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="23">
<p>3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="39">
<p>0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p>273</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p>12578</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="42">
<p>33101</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="41">
<p>11886</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="40">
<p>25889</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p>17936</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="41">
<p>22164</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p>16361</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p>4660</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="39">
<p>144848</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="23">
<p>4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="39">
<p>0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p>68494</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p>6678</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="42">
<p>31786</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="41">
<p>11935</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="40">
<p>23353</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p>19707</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="41">
<p>19798</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p>16758</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p>4167</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="39">
<p>202676</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="23">
<p>5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="39">
<p>0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p>52683</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p>3957</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="42">
<p>27726</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="41">
<p>17365</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="40">
<p>20528</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p>22067</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="41">
<p>18761</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p>17514</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p>4288</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="39">
<p>184889</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="23">
<p>6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="39">
<p>0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p>34656</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p>2205</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="42">
<p>22373</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="41">
<p>24039</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="40">
<p>17558</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p>24138</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="41">
<p>18885</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p>18032</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p>4523</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="39">
<p>166409</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="23">
<p>7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="39">
<p>0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p>19377</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p>26877</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="42">
<p>16194</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="41">
<p>28312</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="40">
<p>15324</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p>24361</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="41">
<p>19459</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p>17348</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p>4258</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="39">
<p>171510</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="23">
<p>8</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="39">
<p>1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p>9268</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p>41042</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="42">
<p>10857</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="41">
<p>29527</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="40">
<p>16627</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p>23642</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="41">
<p>20885</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p>16138</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p>4478</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="39">
<p>172465</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="23">
<p>9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="39">
<p>0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p>4151</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="43">
<p>40723</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="42">
<p>6603</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="41">
<p>26484</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="40">
<p>19526</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p>20999</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="41">
<p>22723</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p>15239</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.201058201058201%;" width="39">
<p>4590</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="39">
<p>161038</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>Note: “Extra” refers to all extra half innings. The 40,688 extra half innings reported here occurred in 8971 games, an average of 4.5 per game.</em></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><strong>Table 3. Percentage of Times Each Lineup Slot Batted First in an Inning, 1957–2005</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="28">
<p><strong>Slot</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.4074074074074066%;" width="32">
<p><strong>1</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p><strong>2</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p><strong>3</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="43">
<p><strong>4</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p><strong>5</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p><strong>6</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p><strong>7</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p><strong>8</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p><strong>9</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="40">
<p><strong>Extra</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.936507936507936%;" width="34">
<p><strong>Total</strong></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="28">
<p>1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.4074074074074066%;" width="32">
<p><strong>100</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p>1.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p><strong>19.1</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="43">
<p>8.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p>13.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p><strong>13.7</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p>11.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p><strong><u>13.0</u></strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p>10.7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="40">
<p>12.4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.936507936507936%;" width="34">
<p>21.2</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="28">
<p>2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.4074074074074066%;" width="32">
<p>0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p>0.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p>10.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="43">
<p>13.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p>8.6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p><strong>13.7</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p>9.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p><strong><u>12.2</u></strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p>10.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="40">
<p>11.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.936507936507936%;" width="34">
<p>8.8</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="28">
<p>3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.4074074074074066%;" width="32">
<p>0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p>0.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p>6.6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="43">
<p><strong>17.3</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p>6.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p><strong>13.5</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p>9.4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p>11.6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p>11.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="40">
<p>11.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.936507936507936%;" width="34">
<p>8.4</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="28">
<p>4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.4074074074074066%;" width="32">
<p>0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p><strong>35.8</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p>3.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="43">
<p><strong>16.6</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p>6.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p>12.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p>10.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p>10.4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p>11.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="40">
<p>10.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.936507936507936%;" width="34">
<p>11.8</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="28">
<p>5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.4074074074074066%;" width="32">
<p>0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p><strong>27.5</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p>2.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="43">
<p><strong>14.5</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p>9.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p>10.7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p>11.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p>9.8</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p><strong><u>11.8</u></strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="40">
<p>10.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.936507936507936%;" width="34">
<p>10.8</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="28">
<p>6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.4074074074074066%;" width="32">
<p>0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p><strong>18.1</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p>1.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="43">
<p>11.7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p>12.6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p>9.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p><strong><u>12.6</u></strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p>9.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p><strong><u>12.2</u></strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="40">
<p>11.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.936507936507936%;" width="34">
<p>9.7</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="28">
<p>7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.4074074074074066%;" width="32">
<p>0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p><strong>10.1</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p>14.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="43">
<p>8.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p><strong>14.8</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p>8.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p><strong><u>12.8</u></strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p>10.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p><strong><u>11.7</u></strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="40">
<p>10.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.936507936507936%;" width="34">
<p>10.0</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="28">
<p>8</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.4074074074074066%;" width="32">
<p>0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p>4.8</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p><strong>21.4</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="43">
<p>5.7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p><strong>15.4</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p>8.7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p><strong><u>12.4</u></strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p>10.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p>10.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="40">
<p>11.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.936507936507936%;" width="34">
<p>10.0</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.01058201058201%;" width="28">
<p>9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.4074074074074066%;" width="32">
<p>0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p>2.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p><strong>21.3</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="43">
<p>3.4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.73015873015873%;" width="42">
<p><strong>13.8</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p>10.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.465608465608465%;" width="40">
<p>11.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p><strong><u>11.9</u></strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="41">
<p>10.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.597883597883598%;" width="40">
<p>11.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 7.936507936507936%;" width="34">
<p>9.4</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div class="column">
<div class="page" title="Page 87">
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>It is not surprising that the first three men in the lineup are quite unlikely to lead off the second inning, but the low totals for the number 4, 5, and 6 men to lead off the third are perhaps a bit unexpected. Finally, note that the clear leader in times leading off the second inning is the fourth batter in the lineup. This takes us to a related concept, which is somewhat of a mirror image of which batter leads off an inning, namely which position makes the last out (that statement does not do justice to innings which end on caught-stealing or pickoff plays). This means that the most common single result of the first inning (35.8% of the time) is that the side is retired in order or one runner reached base and was retired on a double play, caught stealing or via pickoff. This is true even though the scoring rate is highest in this inning.</p>
<div class="page" title="Page 88">
<p>The last column in Table 3 shows that the batter in the leadoff slot is the first batter in 21.2% of all innings with the other eight positions fairly evenly distributed in comparison. Of course, this predominance of the leadoff batter is greatly influenced by the first inning reality. If the first inning totals are removed and the numbers renormalized, then there is much evenness across the slots. In fact, after the first inning the fourth and fifth slots in the starting lineup are the most likely to bat first. These percentages are presented in Figure 3.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.17.36-PM.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-94346 size-medium" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.17.36-PM-300x221.png" alt="Figure 3" width="300" height="221" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.17.36-PM-300x221.png 300w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.17.36-PM-768x565.png 768w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.17.36-PM-705x519.png 705w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.17.36-PM.png 948w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a></p>
<div class="page" title="Page 88">
<p>The possibility of differences between the visiting and home teams must also be considered. I did that comparison, and only one of the 90 entries in Table 3 showed even a one percent difference between visitors and home. That is, the fourth-place slot batted first in the second inning for the visiting team 37.5% of the time and 34.0% of the time for the home team. This means that the visitors went out in order in the first inning more often than the home team did. This is reflected in the higher average number of first inning plate appearances for the home team: 4.42 as compared to 4.28 for the visitors. This percentage difference appears small, but does represent over 13,000 more home team batters in the first inning over the 49 years studied.</p>
<p>Of course, the most important measurement is scoring. Figure 4 presents the average number of run scored in each inning when the first batter in the inning was in the indicated lineup slot. The numbers here are the averages across all innings. As expected, I found some variation between individual innings, but I am not reporting those details here for two reasons. First, as we have seen, each inning/batter combination occurs with greatly varied frequency, so comparisons become less valuable. For example, the batter in the third slot bats first in the second inning only 0.1% of the time, so the runs scored in those innings don’t have much meaning in a comparative sense. Second, tables with 90 data points in them are cumbersome and not easy to read. This figure will be the standard format for the bulk of the presentation.</p>
<div class="page" title="Page 88">
<p>There is a remarkable relationship between the first batter in an inning and the chance of scoring. The first two slots in the lineup are equally valuable as first batters in terms of scoring, followed by a steady but non-linear decline to the seventh place batter, ending with a definite upturn for the last two spots.</p>
<p>This pattern may be unexpected at first, especially the observation that when the men in the fourth-and fifth-place slots bat first, the result is virtually the same as when the inning begins with the ninth- and eighth-place batters, respectively. However, we must remember that the scoring is the result of everyone who bats in that inning, not just the first batter. On average across all innings there are about 4.3 batters per inning (data not shown). Therefore, when the fourth slot leads off, then the eighth and ninth slots bat as the fourth and fifth men that inning.</p>
<p>On the other hand, when the eighth-slot batter leads off, then the inning gets back to the top of the order in three batters which leads to more scoring, even if the man starting the inning made an out. I wanted to be sure that the high results when the leadoff man bats first were not overwhelmed by the first inning effect. When those totals are removed, then the average number of runs scored when the leadoff man bats first in an inning other than the first is 0.56, indistinguishable from the data in Figure 4.</p>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.17.42-PM.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-94347" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.17.42-PM-300x235.png" alt="Figure 4" width="306" height="240" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.17.42-PM-300x235.png 300w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.17.42-PM-768x601.png 768w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.17.42-PM-705x552.png 705w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.17.42-PM.png 938w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 306px) 100vw, 306px" /></a></p>
<div class="page" title="Page 89">
<p>I wish to emphasize that the numbers in Figure 4 represent the combined effect of all the batters in an inning, simply separated by lineup slot of the first batter. The actual performance of batters in the individual slots is shown in Figure 5. The performance of each lineup position in isolation follows the expected pattern and is quite different from the batting order analysis above.</p>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.21.46-PM.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-94348 size-medium" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.21.46-PM-300x204.png" alt="Figure 5" width="300" height="204" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.21.46-PM-300x204.png 300w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.21.46-PM-768x522.png 768w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.21.46-PM-705x480.png 705w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.21.46-PM.png 788w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a></p>
<div class="page" title="Page 89">
<p>The next variable I looked at was the effect of the DH. There are ample data from several sources that AL teams score more than NL teams since 1973, but it is very clear that the difference in totals is accounted for entirely by the DH (see, for example, Table 3 in <a href="http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/SmithD/batlearn.pdf">http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/SmithD/batlearn.pdf</a>). Figure 6 presents the differences in run scoring between the two leagues. There is a striking effect of substituting the DH for the pitcher, with a major effect upon which lineup slot bats first.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.21.53-PM.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-94349 size-medium" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.21.53-PM-300x248.png" alt="Figure 6" width="300" height="248" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.21.53-PM-300x248.png 300w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.21.53-PM-768x635.png 768w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.21.53-PM-705x583.png 705w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.21.53-PM.png 856w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a></p>
<p>For the leadoff and number two slots, the leagues are the same, because innings that begin this way are very unlikely to have the pitcher bat. Differences appear through the rest of the batting order, with the widest discrepancy being found when the men in the sixth and seventh slots bat first and the pitcher will very likely come to the plate in NL games and thereby decrease scoring in those innings. The overall level of scoring is slightly higher since the advent of the DH (data not shown).</p>
<div class="page" title="Page 89">
<p>I then investigated how the scoring difference arose by looking at on-base and slugging averages for the teams as a function of which lineup slot bats first. Figure 7 has the on-base data, which show even fewer differences for first five slots than the scoring average did. However, there are wide differences for innings that begin with line- up spots six through nine, with the seventh slot showing the biggest difference.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
</div>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.29.14-PM.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-94350" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.29.14-PM-300x245.png" alt="Figure 7" width="333" height="272" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.29.14-PM-300x245.png 300w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.29.14-PM-768x626.png 768w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.29.14-PM-705x575.png 705w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.29.14-PM.png 834w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 333px) 100vw, 333px" /></a></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="page" title="Page 89">
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.29.49-PM.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-94351" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.29.49-PM-300x233.png" alt="Figure 8" width="329" height="255" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.29.49-PM-300x233.png 300w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.29.49-PM-768x596.png 768w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.29.49-PM-705x547.png 705w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.29.49-PM.png 776w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 329px) 100vw, 329px" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>As noted above, almost all production differences between the leagues since 1973 are due to pitcher batting. I therefore recalculated the data of Figure 7 by omitting all plate appearances by pitchers. The results are in Figure 8, where we see that there is now some separation for innings that start with the second and third slots, but that the differences have almost completely disappeared from the fourth slot to the ninth.</p>
<div class="page" title="Page 90">
<p>To finish the study of the DH, I prepared the parallel two figures for slugging average. These are Figures 9 and 10.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
</div>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.29.59-PM.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-94352 size-medium" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.29.59-PM-300x258.png" alt="Figure 9 " width="300" height="258" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.29.59-PM-300x258.png 300w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.29.59-PM-768x660.png 768w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.29.59-PM-705x606.png 705w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.29.59-PM.png 838w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="page" title="Page 90">
<p>&nbsp;</p>
</div>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.34.07-PM.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-94353" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.34.07-PM-300x225.png" alt="Figure 10" width="344" height="258" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.34.07-PM-300x225.png 300w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.34.07-PM-768x577.png 768w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.34.07-PM-705x530.png 705w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.34.07-PM.png 828w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 344px) 100vw, 344px" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Once again, the removal of pitcher appearances brings the two leagues very close together, even closer than was seen for on-base average. The largest difference is found for the ninth slot, with the low National League value representing a large number of pinch-hitters who have a collective slugging average of .329 over these seasons.</p>
<p>There is one more topic I wish to discuss, and that is related to some work I did previously on batter learning. I made a presentation on this at the SABR meeting in Kansas City in 1996 and published an expanded version in the <em>Baseball Research Journal</em> in 2006. Briefly, what I discovered is that there is a dramatic improvement for starting batters against starting pitchers in batting average, on-base average, and slugging average between their first, second, and third times at bat. Figure 11 is a summary of these results:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.37.04-PM.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-94354" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.37.04-PM-300x215.png" alt="Figure 11: Batting Performance by Starters in Different Times at Bat, 1960-2005" width="315" height="226" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.37.04-PM-300x215.png 300w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.37.04-PM-768x551.png 768w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.37.04-PM-705x506.png 705w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screen-Shot-2021-11-28-at-5.37.04-PM.png 778w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 315px) 100vw, 315px" /></a></p>
<div class="page" title="Page 90">
<p>At first glance it appears that the scoring and batting order results I presented today do not agree with the batter learning study. As shown above in Figure 1, there is much more scoring in the first inning than in any other, followed by a great decline in the second inning. How can this be if batters are producing at a much lower rate their first time up, especially in terms of slugging average? The answer turns out to be simple and perhaps obvious. There is no disagreement and the apparent differences can be explained entirely by which batters typically bat in the first. Table 4 presents the percentage of plate appearances for each lineup position in each inning.</p>
<p>The numbers in Table 4 differ quite a bit from those in Table 3, which showed the percentage of times that each batting order slot batted first. The bulk of appearances (84.5%) in the first inning are by the best batters (see Figure 5), and in the second inning the weaker batters predominate (74.7% of total). In no other inning besides the first two is there such a disproportion in plate appearances between the different lineup slots. So, even though batters in all lineup positions do better the second and third times they bat, the absolute level of the most common batters in the second inning is very low. Since the numbers here represent starting batters, the percentage of batters from the ninth slot is low as the game progresses and starting pitchers are removed.</p>
<div>
<h5> </h5>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Table 4. Percentage of Plate Appearances by Starting Batters in Each Lineup Slot in Each Inning</strong></p>
</div>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.671957671957672%;" width="32">
<p><strong>Slot</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p><strong>1</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.052910052910052%;" width="50">
<p><strong>2</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.788359788359788%;" width="48">
<p><strong>3</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p><strong>4</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p><strong>5</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.523809523809524%;" width="46">
<p><strong>6</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p><strong>7</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p><strong>8</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p><strong>9</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="37">
<p><strong>Extra</strong></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.671957671957672%;" width="32">
<p>1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p><strong>23.4</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.052910052910052%;" width="50">
<p>6.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.788359788359788%;" width="48">
<p>19.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p>6.4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p>16.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.523809523809524%;" width="46">
<p>9.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p>12.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p>15.7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p>8.8</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="37">
<p>14.7</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.671957671957672%;" width="32">
<p>2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p><strong>22.9</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.052910052910052%;" width="50">
<p>3.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.788359788359788%;" width="48">
<p>18.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p>7.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p>14.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.523809523809524%;" width="46">
<p>11.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p>9.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p>16.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p>10.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="37">
<p>13.2</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.671957671957672%;" width="32">
<p>3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p><strong>23.3</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.052910052910052%;" width="50">
<p>1.6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.788359788359788%;" width="48">
<p>15.4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p>11.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p>11.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.523809523809524%;" width="46">
<p>14.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p>8.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p>15.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p>12.7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="37">
<p>12.7</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.671957671957672%;" width="32">
<p>4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p><strong>15.0</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.052910052910052%;" width="50">
<p>10.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.788359788359788%;" width="48">
<p>11.7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p>14.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p>9.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.523809523809524%;" width="46">
<p>15.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p>9.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p>12.6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p>14.7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="37">
<p>11.2</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.671957671957672%;" width="32">
<p>5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p>8.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.052910052910052%;" width="50">
<p><strong>16.9</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.788359788359788%;" width="48">
<p>8.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p>16.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p>8.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.523809523809524%;" width="46">
<p>14.7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p>11.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p>10.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p>15.6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="37">
<p>11.0</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.671957671957672%;" width="32">
<p>6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p>4.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.052910052910052%;" width="50">
<p><strong>21.4</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.788359788359788%;" width="48">
<p>4.8</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p>15.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p>9.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.523809523809524%;" width="46">
<p>12.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p>13.8</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p>8.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p>14.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="37">
<p>11.1</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.671957671957672%;" width="32">
<p>7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p>1.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.052910052910052%;" width="50">
<p><strong>20.4</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.788359788359788%;" width="48">
<p>6.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p>14.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p>11.7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.523809523809524%;" width="46">
<p>10.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p>15.6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p>8.6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p>12.4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="37">
<p>11.9</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.671957671957672%;" width="32">
<p>8</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p>0.7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.052910052910052%;" width="50">
<p><strong>16.0</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.788359788359788%;" width="48">
<p>10.7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p>11.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p>14.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.523809523809524%;" width="46">
<p>8.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p>15.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p>9.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p>8.6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="37">
<p>11.1</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 7.671957671957672%;" width="32">
<p>9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p>0.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.052910052910052%;" width="50">
<p>4.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.788359788359788%;" width="48">
<p>5.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p>3.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.25925925925926%;" width="44">
<p>5.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.523809523809524%;" width="46">
<p>3.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.126984126984127%;" width="43">
<p>5.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p>3.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.862433862433862%;" width="41">
<p>2.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 8.333333333333332%;" width="37">
<p>3.2</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div class="page" title="Page 90">
<div class="page" title="Page 91">
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Conclusions</strong></p>
<ol>
<li>
<p>The lineup slot of the first batter in an inning matters a great deal in a team’s average scoring.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Lineups appear to be well designed in that the best scoring results are seen when the man in the leadoff slot bats first in any inning.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The lowest scoring per inning occurs when the seventh slot leads off the inning.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>There is a DH effect, but it affects only the detailed rates, not the basic patterns.</p>
</li>
</ol>
<p><em><strong>DAVID W. SMITH</strong> received SABR’s highest honor, the Bob Davids Award, in 2005. He is the founder and president of Retrosheet. This paper was presented in July 2006 a SABR36 in Seattle.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Still Searching for Clutch Pitchers</title>
		<link>https://sabr.org/journal/article/still-searching-for-clutch-pitchers/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[admin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Nov 2006 17:28:53 +0000</pubDate>
				<guid isPermaLink="false">https://sabr.org/?post_type=journal_articles&#038;p=94335</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[More than two decades ago, Pete Palmer contributed what I think is one of the best baseball statistical analysis efforts ever done. The results were published in The National Pastime in 1985, in an article entitled &#8220;Do Clutch Pitchers Exist?&#8221; Palmer examined pitchers with at least 150 decisions between 1900 and 1983, accounting for how [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>More than two decades ago, Pete Palmer contributed what I think is one of the best baseball statistical analysis efforts ever done. The results were published in <a href="https://sabr.org/the-national-pastime-archives/"><em>The National Pastime</em></a> in 1985, in an article entitled &#8220;Do Clutch Pitchers Exist?&#8221;</p>
<p>Palmer examined pitchers with at least 150 decisions between 1900 and 1983, accounting for how many runs each pitcher allowed, how many were scored on his behalf, and what his career won-lost record “should” have been based on that data. He was searching for “clutch” pitchers: men who won significantly more games than expected because of some unusual ability to pitch to the score and emerge victorious in the close games. With 23 years of additional data, and newly available research tools, now seems a good time to revisit this project.</p>
<p>The overwhelming majority of the time, a team’s won–lost record correlates to the number of runs it scores and the number it gives up. It follows that the same is true about pitchers: if a pitcher has a winning record, most likely it is because he allowed fewer runs than average (reflected in his ERA), or his team scored more runs than average, or both.</p>
<p>There is another factor involved in statistical results: luck, or what statisticians call random chance. For example, if you flip a coin 100 times, you’d expect to get heads about 50 times, but you might get a little more or a little fewer than 50 just by luck. In fact, based on the laws of random chance, there is a 68% chance you’d get within one standard deviation of that total (between 45 and 55 heads), and a 95% chance you’d get within two standard deviations (between 40 and 60 heads).<a href="#end1">1</a></p>
<p>What Palmer found is that most pitchers wound up with about as many wins as they should have, with variations within those rules of random chance. In other words, if you win more games than expected, you’re lucky, and if you win fewer, you’re unlucky. His conclusion: “Clutch pitchers do not exist.”</p>
<p>Palmer has updated and fine-tuned his research since then. For one thing, he essentially eliminated modern relievers, because their inclusion skewed the data. Many had much lower winning percentages than expected because of their usage patterns: entering almost exclusively with their teams ahead, they are more likely to suffer a loss than earn a win. Thus, Palmer’s current study includes only pitchers (501 in all) with at least 200 starts and 200 decisions between 1876 and 2006.</p>
<p>In the original study, Palmer used a complex method to estimate a pitcher’s run support, based on his innings pitched, his team’s offense, his own batting performance, and the Linear Weights formula. Thanks to Retrosheet, he is now able to use actual run-support figures (though the figures are not broken down to show runs scored while the pitcher is actually in the game).</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the results of the updated study are very similar to those of the original, and produce the same conclusions.</p>
<p>According to Palmer’s formulas, the number of runs needed to produce an extra win over the course of a season is equal to ten times the square root of the number of runs scored by inning by both teams. Using this theory, it is possible to project a pitcher’s won-lost record based on the number of runs scored and allowed. For example, Johnny Allen made 241 starts in his career, during which his teams scored 1,393 runs, an average of 5.78 per game. Since Allen pitched a total of 1,950.1 innings (the equivalent of 216.7 nine-inning games) in his career, we estimate that his teams scored 1,253 runs (216.7 times 5.78) on his behalf. Meanwhile, Allen allowed a total of 924 runs, an average of 4.26 per nine innings. He thus projects to have had 329 more runs scored on his behalf than he gave up.</p>
<p>To figure out Allen’s expected won-lost record, we need to determine the number of runs per win in his era. In this case, that number is ten times the square root of (5.78 plus 4.26 divided by nine), or 10.56 runs per win. We divide the 329 by 10.56, determining that Allen should have been 31.2 wins above .500. Since he had 217 decisions in his career, his projected wins are 31.2 plus half of 217, or 139.7. So Allen should have gone about 140–77 based on his runs scored–runs allowed patterns. In fact, his career record was 142–75.</p>
<p>Incidentally, Palmer has expanded his study to determine how many of a pitcher’s “extra” wins (wins over .500) can be attributed to his pitching, and how many to his offensive support. For example, Whitey Ford, an excellent pitcher on a great team, finished with a 236–106 record, or 65 games over .500 (171–171). Palmer finds that 38 of those wins were attributable to Ford’s pitching, 22 were courtesy of the Yankees’ bats, and the other five were due to luck.</p>
<p>In a sampling of 501 pitchers, we would expect to find about 160 (32%) who finished more than one standard deviation above or below projection, 25 (5%) who finished more than two, and one (0.25%) who finished more than three. The actual totals are 161, 16, and zero (with Red Ruffing just missing, at 2.98), respectively. Thus, the results are about what we would expect from random chance, and there is no evidence of clutch pitchers.</p>
<p>Here are some highlights of the new study:</p>
<ul>
<li>Of 501 qualifying pitchers, 100 (20%) came within <em>one win </em>of projection (rounding off to the nearest integer). Only four pitchers were more than 15 wins off projection.</li>
<li>Of the 161 pitchers who were at least one standard deviation off projection, 102 were over projection and 59 were Of the 16 who were at least two standard deviations off, 14 were over projection but only two were under. The average pitcher among the 501 was one win over projection. This could be because those who are “lucky” in the win column are more likely to get 200 decisions.</li>
<li>Two of the three luckiest pitchers were named Welch: Mickey (+21) and Bob (+17). The unluckiest, by far, was Red Ruffing (- 24). Table A shows the pitchers who exceeded projection by the greatest number of wins, while Table B shows those who came in under projection by the most. Table C shows the projected and actual records of some other pitchers of interest, including several commonly regarded as “clutch” pitchers.</li>
<li>Several pitchers might have made the Hall of Fame, or at least become more serious candidates, had they only matched their projected records. They include Bert Blyleven (287–250 to 299–238; I think somehow he would have managed one more victory), Carl Mays (208–126 to 217–117), and Jim McCormick (265–214 to 280–199).</li>
<li>On the other hand, Rube Marquard (201–177 to 195–183), Early Wynn (300–244 to 297–247), Happy Jack Chesbro (198–132 to 187–143), and Smiling Mickey Welch (307–210 to 286–231) might not be as Happy or Smiling anymore, on the outside of Cooperstown looking in.</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Table A: The Luckiest: (Most Wins over Projection, 1876–2006)</strong></p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><strong>W</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><strong>L</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><strong>Proj W</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><strong>Diff</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><strong>StdDev</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="89">
<p>Mickey Welch</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="24">
<p>307</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>210</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>286.4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>+20.6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>+2.47</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="89">
<p>Greg Maddux</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="24">
<p>333</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>203</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>315.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>+17.8</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>+2.21</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="89">
<p>Bob Welch</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="24">
<p>211</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>146</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>194.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>+16.8</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>+2.52</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="89">
<p>Clark Griffith</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="24">
<p>237</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>146</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>221.8</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>+15.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>+2.17</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="89">
<p>Christy Mathewson</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="24">
<p>373</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>188</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>357.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>+15.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>+1.85</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="89">
<p>Roger Clemens</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="24">
<p>348</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>178</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>334.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>+14.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>+1.78</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="89">
<p>Harry Gumbert</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="24">
<p>143</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>113</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>129.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>+14.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>+2.43</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="89">
<p>Randy Johnson</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="24">
<p>280</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>247</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>266.4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>+13.6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>+1.97</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="89">
<p>Bill Hutchison</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="24">
<p>183</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>163</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>169.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>+13.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>+1.93</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="89">
<p>Ed Morris</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="24">
<p>171</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>122</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>157.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>+13.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>+2.12</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><strong>Table B: The Unluckiest: (Most Wins under Projection, 1876–2006)</strong></p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 209px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><strong>W</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><strong>L</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><strong>Proj W</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><strong>Diff</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><strong>StdDev</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="81">
<p>Red Ruffing</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="31">
<p>273</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>225</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>297.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>-24.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>-2.98</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="81">
<p>Jim McCormick</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="31">
<p>265</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>214</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>279.7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>-14.7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>-1.90</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="81">
<p>Dizzy Trout</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="31">
<p>170</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>161</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>183.7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>-13.7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>-2.12</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="81">
<p>Bob Shawkey</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="31">
<p>195</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>150</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>208.4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>-13.4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>-1.95</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="81">
<p>Walter Johnson</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="31">
<p>417</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>279</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>430.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>-13.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>-1.39</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="81">
<p>Bert Blyleven</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="31">
<p>287</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>250</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>299.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>-12.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>-1.43</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="81">
<p>Murry Dickson</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="31">
<p>172</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>181</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>182.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>-10.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>-1.61</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="81">
<p>Ned Garver</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="31">
<p>129</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>157</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>139.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>-10.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>-1.80</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="81">
<p>Sid Fernandez</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="31">
<p>114</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>96</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>125.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>-10.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>-1.91</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="81">
<p>Bob Friend</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="31">
<p>197</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="25">
<p>230</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="39">
<p>207.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="35">
<p>-10.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;" width="37">
<p>-1.34</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p align="center"> </p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><strong>Table C: Others of Interest (Through 2006)</strong></p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 454px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 18.852459016393443%; height: 19px;"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td style="width: 14.480874316939891%; height: 19px;"><strong>W</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><strong>L</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><strong>Proj W</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><strong>Diff</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><strong>StdDev</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 25px;">
<td style="width: 18.852459016393443%; height: 25px;" width="86">
<p>Grover Alexander</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 14.480874316939891%; height: 25px;" width="27">
<p>373</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 25px;" width="25">
<p>208</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 25px;" width="41">
<p>364.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 25px;" width="34">
<p>+8.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 25px;" width="37">
<p>+0.95</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 41px;">
<td style="width: 18.852459016393443%; height: 41px;" width="86">
<p>Bob Gibson</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 14.480874316939891%; height: 41px;" width="27">
<p>251</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="25">
<p>174</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="41">
<p>249.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="34">
<p>+1.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="37">
<p>+0.14</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 41px;">
<td style="width: 18.852459016393443%; height: 41px;" width="86">
<p>Sandy Koufax</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 14.480874316939891%; height: 41px;" width="27">
<p>165</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="25">
<p>87</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="41">
<p>160.8</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="34">
<p>+4.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="37">
<p>+0.73</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 41px;">
<td style="width: 18.852459016393443%; height: 41px;" width="86">
<p>Pedro Martinez</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 14.480874316939891%; height: 41px;" width="27">
<p>206</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="25">
<p>92</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="41">
<p>201.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="34">
<p>+4.8</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="37">
<p>+0.86</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 41px;">
<td style="width: 18.852459016393443%; height: 41px;" width="86">
<p>Nolan Ryan</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 14.480874316939891%; height: 41px;" width="27">
<p>324</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="25">
<p>292</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="41">
<p>318.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="34">
<p>+5.5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="37">
<p>+0.67</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 41px;">
<td style="width: 18.852459016393443%; height: 41px;" width="86">
<p>Curt Schilling</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 14.480874316939891%; height: 41px;" width="27">
<p>207</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="25">
<p>138</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="41">
<p>210.4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="34">
<p>-3.4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="37">
<p>-0.45</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 41px;">
<td style="width: 18.852459016393443%; height: 41px;" width="86">
<p>Tom Seaver</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 14.480874316939891%; height: 41px;" width="27">
<p>311</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="25">
<p>205</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="41">
<p>305.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="34">
<p>+6.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="37">
<p>+0.74</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 41px;">
<td style="width: 18.852459016393443%; height: 41px;" width="86">
<p>John Smoltz</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 14.480874316939891%; height: 41px;" width="27">
<p>193</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="25">
<p>137</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="41">
<p>200.6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="34">
<p>-7.6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="37">
<p>-1.23</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 41px;">
<td style="width: 18.852459016393443%; height: 41px;" width="86">
<p>Warren Spahn</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 14.480874316939891%; height: 41px;" width="27">
<p>363</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="25">
<p>245</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="41">
<p>366.6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="34">
<p>-3.6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="37">
<p>-0.34</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 41px;">
<td style="width: 18.852459016393443%; height: 41px;" width="86">
<p>David Wells</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 14.480874316939891%; height: 41px;" width="27">
<p>230</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="25">
<p>148</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="41">
<p>222.6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="34">
<p>+7.4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="37">
<p>+1.02</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 41px;">
<td style="width: 18.852459016393443%; height: 41px;" width="86">
<p>Cy Young</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 14.480874316939891%; height: 41px;" width="27">
<p>511</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="25">
<p>316</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="41">
<p>511.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="34">
<p>+0.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 41px;" width="37">
<p>-0.10</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><em>In a clutch performance, <strong>BILL DEANE</strong> pitched his team to the Cooperstown Co-Ed Softball League Playoff Championship in 2006.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Notes</strong></p>
<p><a href="#end1" name="end1">1</a>. In this case—a binomial distribution—a standard deviation is the square root of P<sub>3</sub>Q<sub>3</sub>N, where P is the probability of success (50%), Q is the probability of failure (1 – P, or again 50%), and N is the number of tries (100). So the standard deviation here is 5. Finding the standard deviation (or sigma) for expected wins is a much more complex process, varying from pitcher to pitcher based on his number of decisions and his winning percentage. The average sigma in this group is 6.2 wins.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Demise of the Reserve Clause: The Players’ Path to Freedom</title>
		<link>https://sabr.org/journal/article/the-demise-of-the-reserve-clause-the-players-path-to-freedom/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[admin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Nov 2006 23:54:34 +0000</pubDate>
				<guid isPermaLink="false">https://sabr.org/?post_type=journal_articles&#038;p=94332</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[A moment that marked a dramatic shift in the power structure between major league baseball players and owners occurred on December 23, 1975, when an arbitrator’s decision brought an end to the primary effects of the reserve clause. Prior to the decision,the pendulum of power had been firmly with the owners. The players had made [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A moment that marked a dramatic shift in the power structure between major league baseball players and owners occurred on December 23, 1975, when an arbitrator’s decision brought an end to the primary effects of the reserve clause. Prior to the decision,the pendulum of power had been firmly with the owners. The players had made some gains, particularly with the formation of a viable union, but the owners were still in control. However, once the owners lost the ability to bind players to their teams indefinitely,which had been the result of the reserve clause for nearly 100 years, the pendulum swung greatly toward the players. The owners have spent the ensuing 30 years trying to reverse its direction.</p>
<p>The reserve clause bound a player to his team for as long as the team, not the player, desired. Even after the contract itself expired, a player remained tied to the team. He could be traded, sold, or released, but the player himself could not initiate any moves on his own.</p>
<p>The reserve clause had its origin at the end of the 1879 National League season and soon evolved into the form it would keep well into the second half of the 20th century.<sup>1</sup></p>
<p>The reserve clause kept a player from choosing where to work for whatever reason, fiduciary or otherwise. And simple economics demonstrate how this inhibited the player’s salary with regard to what he could have received in a free market.</p>
<p><strong>A Definition</strong><strong> </strong></p>
<p>Although it was widely accepted that players had no freedom in determining their fates and destinations, it appears that few people from either side, players or owners, gave much thought to the mechanics of the reserve clause.</p>
<p>The clause was codified into the Uniform Player’s Contract, eventually becoming Paragraph 10A of the document:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>On or before December 20 (or if a Sunday, then the next preceding business day) in the year of the last playing season covered by the contract, the Club may tender to the Player a contract for the term of that year by mailing the same to the Player at his address following his signature hereto, or if none be given, then at his last address of record with the Club. If prior to the March 1 next succeeding said December 20, the Player and the Club have not agreed upon the terms of such contract, then on or before 10 days after said March 1, the Club shall have the right by written notice to the Player at said address to renew this contract for the period of one year on the same terms, except that the amount payable to the Player shall be such as the Club shall fix in said notice; provided, however, that said amount, if fixed by a Major League Club, shall be an amount payable at a rate not less than 80 percent of the rate stipulated for the next preceding year and at a rate not less than 70 percent of the rate stipulated for the year immediately prior to the next preceding game.<sup>2</sup></em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>More than 200 words, much of it devoted to explanations of timing and salary-reduction limits, the clause has its essence in the 64 words bolded in the above paragraph. If a player and team could not come to terms, the team could unilaterally renew the player’s contract for one year.</p>
<p>While teams had this option, it wasn’t one they had to exercise. Just having the ability to unilaterally renew a contract meant they never had to. If a player didn’t like the contract being offered, his only option, hardly a good one, was to hold out. Thus, for many years the reserve clause served its function as owners and players routinely accepted the effect of the clause without serious scrutiny as to how it worked.</p>
<p><strong>Open to Interpretation</strong></p>
<p>The reserve clause was an iron cable that bound a player to his team, or so everyone thought until the mid-1960s, when growing awareness of the clause’s wording brought about a realization that it was actually a thin thread. </p>
<p>Although long considered unambiguous in its power, the reserve clause included a phrase that was open to interpretation. “To renew this contract for the period of one year” left hanging the question of what would happen after one year. Could a team renew the contract again (and again and again, into perpetuity, if necessary), or could it exercise the contract renewal only once?</p>
<p>The question was significant because if the answer was ruled to be the latter, it created not just a window but a wide-open door to free agency for a player. All he would have to do was report for duty without putting his signature to a contract, thereby forcing the team to unilaterally renew the contract for a year if it wanted to retain control of the player. After a year, if a team didn’t have the ability to renew the contract again, the player would be a free agent.</p>
<p>If this was so simple, why weren’t players doing it? Because it was still a question whether a team could renew a contract only one time. Through the 1960s, the arbitrator of this issue would be the commissioner of baseball, an employee of the owners who surely would not answer the question in this manner.</p>
<p><strong>A route to Free Agency</strong><strong> </strong></p>
<p>Meanwhile, Marvin Miller was envisioning a different approach. The 48-year-old Miller had experience as an economist in the United Steelworkers of America when he became the first full-time executive director of the Players Association in 1966. Miller said he discovered the potential in Paragraph 10A even before he officially took office. “I did a double take the first time I saw it,” Miller said. “I couldn’t believe the whole reserve system rested on this.” Miller said he knew then that two elements were necessary for a challenge: a grievance system with an impartial arbitrator and a player who felt strongly enough about challenging Paragraph 10A to withstand the “brick bats” that would be thrown at him.<sup>3</sup></p>
<p>The formula Miller had for challenging the reserve clause did not emerge right away. Although the players sought a revision of the reserve clause as well as an impartial arbitrator to supersede the commissioner and resolve disputes, they initially had to settle for simpler gains. However, in 1968 they did achieve a collective bargaining agreement (CBA, also known as the Basic Agreement), the first in professional baseball history, which included a procedure for handling grievances.<sup>4</sup></p>
<p>Although the commissioner would act as the arbitrator of the grievances, Miller said it was still significant. “Nineteen-sixty-six and 1967 there was no grievance procedure—and no grievances,” he explained. “First came the procedure, and then the players had to be taught about the procedure and that they had the right to grieve. The owners claimed that there was a procedure in the past, but they were unable to produce a record of a single grievance having ever been filed.”<sup>5</sup></p>
<p>Miller said the first grievance filed by the Players Association after the CBA was reached was on behalf of Curt Blefary, who had been fined by his team, the Baltimore Orioles, for taking part in an organized basketball league in the offseason. Although Commissioner William Eckert’s ruling went against  Blefary,  Miller  characterized  it  as a “great thing” since it outraged the players and helped to solidify them.<sup>6</sup></p>
<p>The players demonstrated solidarity again, over the 1968–69 offseason, by collectively refusing to sign their individual contracts until negotiations over their pension fund were settled. It was new commissioner Bowie Kuhn who helped end the dispute just prior to the March 1969 opening of spring-training camps.<sup>7</sup></p>
<p>The players had another cause that brought them together in 1969, when they backed Curt Flood’s lawsuit against baseball, which challenged the sport’s exemption from antitrust laws and in turn the reserve clause. Flood, an outfielder who decided to fight baseball after being traded from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Philadelphia Phillies in October 1969, ultimately lost his case; however, the battle produced additional solidarity among the players.<sup>8</sup></p>
<p>The players stood together again in 1972 in another dispute over the pension, one that resulted in a strike that delayed the beginning of the regular season. (Within a year, the pension was incorporated into the CBA.) Charles Korr, in <em>The End of Baseball As We Knew It: The Players Union, 1960–1981</em>, called the 1972 strike one of the union’s defining moments, writing that it “established the credibility of the union and showed the players that a solid union could prevail in a battle against the owners.”<sup>9</sup></p>
<p><strong>Potential Challenges to the Reserve Clause</strong></p>
<p>Barely noticed amid all this activity was that in the 1970 CBA negotiations the players got an impartial arbitrator to hear their grievances. (It was actually a three-member arbitration panel, which contained one representative from labor, one representative from management, and an impartial arbitrator agreed upon by both sides.) The commissioner would no longer decide all disputes, only those concerning the integrity of the game.<sup>10</sup></p>
<p>The first piece was in place for the players. Next they would need someone to challenge the interpretation of Paragraph 10A. Although Al Downing had had his contract unilaterally renewed by the New York Yankees during spring training in 1969, he had no thoughts of becoming the test case for the players. First, the commissioner would still adjudicate such questions; in addition, Downing had little leverage. Coming off an injury-plagued season that left him with little value on the open market, Downing was actually fearful of being cut loose by the Yankees, and he ended up signing a new contract before the regular season opened.</p>
<p>It wasn’t until 1972 that anyone played into the regular season on a renewed contract. Catcher Ted Simmons had had a solid season in his first full year in the majors, playing for the St. Louis Cardinals in 1971. He rejected his club’s contract offer the following spring. Rather than follow the usual, but internecine, path of holding out, Simmons wanted to get in shape and play while continuing to negotiate with the Cardinals. He reported to spring training, forcing the Cardinals to renew his contract.</p>
<p>“Simmons refused to be bluffed into signing a new unsatisfactory contract in order to be ‘allowed’ into uniform,” said Marvin Miller. “The union advised [him] that once his contract was renewed, he was under contract and could not be barred from spring training or from the regular season, even if he refused to sign that contract.”<sup>11</sup></p>
<p>Miller also said he never made recommendations to the players, that the initiative  had  to come from them. He simply advised the players as to what their rights were.<sup>12</sup></p>
<p>Although Simmons, as had been the case with Downing three years earlier, was only trying to negotiate a better deal for himself, some of the more astute sports columnists around the country were picking up on the potential significance of his situation.13 What if he went the entire season without signing a new contract? Would he become a free agent?</p>
<p>The question never came before the arbitration panel as Simmons signed a new contract with St. Louis on July 24. The Cardinals said the signing— reportedly for two years at $35,000 per year—was made possible by the Federal Pay Board’s decision to exempt athletes from wage controls then in effect.<sup>14</sup></p>
<p>However, it’s possible that the Cardinals might have also been feeling pressure to sign Simmons, lest he become the test case for the players. Simmons later said the Cardinals had “buckled under” and given him exactly what he had been requesting.<sup>15</sup> Simmons reportedly had considered challenging the renewal clause, possibly in the courts as opposed to through a grievance to baseball’s arbitration panel, but he had been adamant at the time that he would rather settle his contract situation with the Cardinals. “I don’t think I ever seriously considered that,” he said of a court challenge. “If I had gone to court and won, I don’t think I could do anybody in the future in baseball that much good, if you know what I mean.”<sup>16</sup></p>
<p>The owners’ fear of a test case might have benefited players who followed Simmons’s lead and went into the 1973 season on renewed contracts. According to <em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1974</em>, seven players opened the 1973 season without having signed new contracts and were playing on renewed contracts: Stan Bahnsen, Rick Reichardt, and Mike Andrews of the Chicago White Sox; Jim Kaat of Minnesota; Dick Billings of Texas; Fritz Peterson of the New York Yankees; and Jerry Kenney of Cleveland.<sup>17</sup> (Kaat had actually signed a contract with the Twins the day before the regular season began.)<sup>18</sup></p>
<p>Bahnsen, Billings, and Peterson signed new contracts with their teams during the 1973 season while Kenney, Reichardt, and Andrews were released from their teams. “The Chisox probably could have easily sold Reichardt and Andrews for the $20,000 waiver price but instead asked for and received waivers on both players for the purpose of giving them their unconditional releases, a process in which the Sox, in exchange, received $1 for each player,” according to Jerome Holtzman in the “Review of 1973” in <em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1974</em>. “It was believed that the Sox chose this route essentially in fear of a subsequent grievance by the Players Association, which may be eager to test the validity of the renewal clause in a courtroom.”<sup>19</sup></p>
<p>In addition to the leverage individual players might have been getting because of the owners’ fear of a challenge to the reserve clause, collectively the players were making gains as the owners were refusing to budge on modifying the reserve clause in collective bargaining.</p>
<p>In negotiations for a new CBA, to replace the one that expired at the end of 1972, the players sought a loosening of the shackles, reportedly in the form of a proposal for a player to become a free agent if not offered a certain salary, depending upon the player’s length of service.</p>
<p>The new agreement contained no such provision. However, veteran players—those with more than 10 years in the same league and five years with the same team—would have the right to veto a trade. In addition, the owners agreed to salary arbitration for players with more than two straight years of service in the majors or three years of non-continuous service. Although this wouldn’t allow a player to choose the club he wanted to play for, it at least meant players could ensure that their salaries were in line with others of their caliber.<sup>20</sup> “Salary arbitration has been a major factor in eliminating gross inequities in the salary structures from club to club (and sometimes on the same club),” wrote Miller in his 1991 autobiography.<sup>21</sup></p>
<p>These were significant gains for the players, particularly the salary arbitration, which remains today and continues to vex the owners. Not only that, the players kept the owners nervous regarding the interpretation of the reserve clause as two more, Sparky Lyle of the New York Yankees and Bobby Tolan of the San Diego Padres, started the 1974 season on renewed contracts. (One of the reasons for the decline of players going unsigned into the regular season in 1974 was because of salary arbitration, which started that year. Many players resolved their salary disputes in this manner rather than refusing to sign contracts.)</p>
<p>On the final day of the regular season, Lyle signed a two-year deal with the Yankees, one that covered the nearly completed season and the 1975 season, but Tolan finished the 1974 season on a renewed contract. On October 17, the Players Association filed two grievances. One was specifically on Tolan’s behalf, requesting free agency for him; the other, more significant, requested clarification of the renewal clause, which could mean free agency for any player who played out his option in this manner.<sup>22</sup></p>
<p>Tolan’s case reached the arbitration panel, but on December 9 he signed a new contract with the Padres. He received the salary increase he had been seeking for 1974 along with another increase for his 1975 contract. The following month the Players Association dropped the grievances that had been filed on Tolan’s behalf.<sup>23</sup></p>
<p>If it was the intent of the owners to continue to postpone a test case, they were succeeding—in a sense. The question was how expensive was it becoming for them to do so. Would Tolan have received what he wanted if not for the fear by the owners that he could become a free agent—and take everyone else along with him? Were owners more likely to accede to the requests of players on renewed contracts? Marvin Miller contends that this was the case, that “players were picking up gradually that they had leverage by the threat of being a test case.”<sup>24</sup></p>
<p><strong>Catfish Hunter Grabs the Headlines</strong></p>
<p>As Tolan was signing his contract, another player was in the process of getting his freedom, and it was this case that dominated the news. Oakland A’s pitcher Jim “Catfish” Hunter was claiming to be a free agent on the grounds that his owner, Charles Finley, had reneged on his contract by not making payments for deferred compensation as scheduled during the 1974 season. Hunter would be the biggest free agent ever to hit the market, coming off a season in which he had won 25 games and the Cy Young Award, if he was successful. And he was.</p>
<p>After deliberating two weeks, Peter Seitz, the impartial member of the arbitration panel, ruled in Hunter’s favor in mid-December. The circus scene that developed later in the month—team representatives lining up at the office of Hunter’s attorney in the small town of Ahoskie, North Carolina—was a story no media outlet could resist, particularly when Hunter finally signed a five-year deal with the New York Yankees worth more than $3 million, a then unheard-of amount (although reportedly not the highest offered).</p>
<p>While the story was surely an attention grabber, Hunter became a free agent in  a  way  that set no precedent for any other player (except, of course, for anyone fortunate enough to play for an owner foolish enough to be as remiss as Finley). Mostly ignored in this frenzy was what could have happened had Tolan been granted his free agency, which would have opened the door to everyone else. So little attention was paid to Tolan’s signing that it was mentioned in a one-paragraph item a “Sports News Briefs” section of the New York Times.<sup>25</sup></p>
<p>Still, the Hunter case was significant in that it provided an indication of how restrained player salaries were because of the reserve clause. The owners used the situation as an example of how salaries would escalate out of control with rich teams (such as the Yankees) snapping up the biggest stars if others were allowed to sell their talents in an open market. Emil “Buzzie” Bavasi, president of the San Diego Padres, reported to have been one of the highest bidders for Hunter, said, “What we saw happen here fully demonstrates the importance of the reserve clause. This manifests why we can’t afford to change the reserve rule. The richest clubs would offer the top players the biggest salaries and the biggest bonuses.”</p>
<p>Marvin Miller countered by saying, “ The Hunter case established zero about what would happen in a free market. Here we had a supply of one and a demand of 24 [clubs in the major leagues at that time]. Obviously, when the supply is one and the demand is great, prices will go up dramatically.”<sup>26</sup></p>
<p>Privately, however, Miller made sure the players realized how much free agency could be worth to them. The Hunter experience, he contended, displayed “concrete evidence” of how much salaries were held down by the lack of freedom players had. He added that freedom, not just money, was a significant issue to the players, although the media never touched on this, focusing only on the money issue. Beyond the dollars, players wanted the opportunity to choose where to play; for some players the motivation was to get to a team that was thin in talent at their position, thereby providing a greater opportunity for playing time. In Hunter’s case, getting out of Finley’s clutches was more important than the money. “There were many valuable things in freedom that had nothing to do with money—but money was there, too.”<sup>27</sup></p>
<p>The Hunter case increased Miller’s hopes that some freedom could be gained through collective bargaining (which would take place in the next year as the Basic Agreement was expiring at the end of 1975). Before the Hunter decision, Miller said he would never have recommended a strike as a means of challenging the reserve clause. After the Hunter decision, a strike became a viable strategy should they need it.<sup>28</sup></p>
<p><strong>The Final Beginning of the End</strong></p>
<p>Beyond negotiations, the opportunity to end the reserve clause through a grievance remained. The 1975 season began with three players on renewed contracts, Andy Messersmith of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Richie Zisk of the Pittsburgh Pirates, and Dave McNally of the Montreal Expos. Zisk played through the regular season on the renewed contract but signed a new contract before the playoffs began that fall.<sup>29</sup></p>
<p>That left Messersmith and McNally as the potential challengers to Paragraph 10A. Messersmith wanted a no-trade clause in his contract, a provision the Dodgers were reluctant to agree to. It’s possible that they would have given in, however, if not for the presence of McNally.</p>
<p>McNally was significant because he had retired during the season. Following an outstanding pitching career  with  the  Baltimore  Orioles (in which he had four consecutive seasons with at least 20 wins), McNally had been traded to Montreal after the 1974 season. However, after a good start with the Expos, he struggled and, after losing six straight games, retired in June 1975, and eventually returned to his hometown of Billings, Montana, where he operated a car dealership with his brother.</p>
<p>Even though he was no longer pitching, McNally, because he had begun the season on a renewed contract, would be eligible to claim free agency after one year. While it wouldn’t benefit him, it would mean much to the current and future players. Since he was retired, there wasn’t any way he could be tempted to sign a new contract. Or was there?</p>
<p>Marvin Miller says McNally called him in November to report that Expos president John McHale had come to Billings and tried to get him to sign a contract. The reported offer was for $125,000 for the 1976 season along with a $25,000 signing bonus, which McNally could keep even if he didn’t pitch again.</p>
<p>However, McHale says his trip to Billings occurred soon after McNally left the Expos, and he was trying to persuade the pitcher to return to the team immediately. McHale said he was trying to salvage something from the trade with Baltimore to take the pressure off Expos general manager Jim Fanning, who was on the hot seat as a result of the trade. (The other major league player the Expos got in the deal was Richie Coggins, who barely played for Montreal because of a thyroid infection. In June, at about the same time McNally retired, the Expos put Coggins on waivers. Meanwhile, the players the Expos gave up in the deal, Ken Singleton and Mike Torrez, were having good seasons for the Orioles.)</p>
<p>McHale denies offering McNally a bonus that could be kept even if he didn’t pitch again but says he “may have offered him [McNally] more money to come back.”</p>
<p>McHale’s offer was viewed by some as a sham, nothing more than a bribe to remove McNally from the test case. If McNally signed a new contract with Montreal, the Dodgers could then renew their efforts to sign Messersmith, removing the final possibility for a challenge in 1975. McHale maintains that wasn’t the case. “I had never even given a thought that it had anything to do with the player relations problem. That was not the motivating factor for me to go to Billings. . . . I was pulling out all the stops [to get McNally to return to the Expos]. I couldn’t have been more serious about wanting him to come back.”<sup>30</sup></p>
<p>Regardless of McHale’s intent, McNally did not sign a new contract. With a grievance now assured because of McNally, it meant that the long-awaited challenge to the reserve clause would finally happen. As a result, the Dodgers didn’t bother to try and sign Messersmith. They had to resign themselves to having his, and others’, fate in the hands of the arbitration panel.</p>
<p>The Players Association filed grievances on behalf of Messersmith and then McNally in early October.</p>
<p><strong>The Decision</strong></p>
<p>At the heart of the Players Association’s case before the arbitration panel was the argument that the word “one,” when used in Paragraph 10A, meant a single year rather than a rolling number of one-year renewals stretching into perpetuity. The owners’ argument was that they had the right to renew the entirety of the contract, including the right to renew the renewal provision.</p>
<p>The hearing was held in the latter part of November and early December of 1975. Miller and owners’ representative John Gaherin quickly ruled in favor of their respective employers.</p>
<p>Just before Christmas, reports came out that Peter Seitz, the impartial arbitrator, would rule for the players. Even so, Miller said he felt great trepidation when the decision was released on December 23. He immediately turned to the final page of the document containing the decision, then sighed with relief as he saw what Seitz had ruled, that Messersmith and McNally were free agents.<sup>31</sup></p>
<p>McNally stayed retired, and Messersmith, free to deal with anyone, eventually chose the Atlanta Braves as his next employer, but the significance of the decision went well beyond either player. The door to free agency was open. A player could refuse to sign a new contract, forcing his team to unilaterally renew his contract for one year. After that year, since the team could not renew it again—the crux of the issue decided by Seitz—the player would then be a free agent.</p>
<p>While Seitz’s decision resulted in freedom for the players, he made clear that it wasn’t his job to decide on the merits of the reserve clause. He maintained that the issue before the arbitration panel was not “to determine what, if anything, is good or bad about the reserve system. The panel’s sole duty is to interpret and apply the agreements and understanding of the parties.”<sup>32</sup> In other words, the demise of the reserve clause was not created by Seitz but by the wording of the contract itself.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, Dick Young of the <em>New York Daily News</em>, in his column entitled “Young Ideas” (considered a misnomer by many), blasted Seitz with typical intemperance. Young’s opening read, “Peter Seitz reminds me of a terrorist, a little man to whom nothing very important has happened in his lifetime, who suddenly decides to create some excitement by tossing a bomb into things.”<sup>33</sup></p>
<p><strong>Other Options for the Owners</strong></p>
<p>Were the owners really stuck in 1975 when there was no way to get Dave McNally to sign a new contract? What if the Expos had just released McNally, similar to what had been done in 1973 with the White Sox with Rick Reichardt and Mike Andrews and the Indians with Jerry Kenney? That would have made McNally a free agent but without setting a precedent that could affect others.</p>
<p>In a telephone conversation in February 2003, when this question was asked of Marvin Miller, he replied that he had never thought of the possibility. A follow-up letter to Miller the next month included the statement “McNally would have been a free agent without setting a precedent in the process” had the Expos released him. Miller replied, “Given the circumstances, I do not agree.”<sup>34</sup></p>
<p>Even if the owners could have indefinitely postponed a showdown before an arbitrator, the cost of heading off a challenge would probably have become increasingly expensive, as they would have had to continue  to accede to the requests of players, no matter how extravagant they were seen by the owners, to keep them from becoming a test case.</p>
<p>It would appear that the owners had no good choices in hanging on to the reserve clause.</p>
<p>Of course, there had always been another way. All along, the owners could have superseded Paragraph 10A, the troublesome clause, by agreeing to modify the reserve clause through collective bargaining.</p>
<p>In fact, Seitz reportedly tipped his hand on his decision in the Messersmith-McNally case, urging the owners not to force a decision from him but to instead settle the matter in the negotiations then taking place for a new collective bargaining agreement. “That Seitz had urged negotiation was a tipoff of impending defeat [for the owners],” wrote Jerome Holtzman in the “Review of 1975” in <em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide</em>.<sup>35</sup> If true, it was tantamount to a jury letting a defendant know they were going to find him guilty, giving him the chance to instead cop a deal with the prosecutor. However, the owners pressed Seitz for a decision, even though they knew what it would be, opting instead to appeal his ruling in federal court.</p>
<p>What would the owners have been able to achieve had they bargained at this point rather than allow Seitz to rule on the matter? They probably could not have come out as well as owners in other sports, who did allow players to play out their options but with significant restrictions.</p>
<p>Since the early 1960s, the National Football League (NFL) had operated under a system in which a player could become free to sign with another team. However, the team signing the player would have to compensate the team losing the player with something of equal value (money, a draft choice, or another player or players). This meant that a player could only force his team to perform what was essentially a trade. In this sense, the freedom was limited, especially with regard to the monetary amount a player would be offered by a new team. Under such a system, salaries would still be severely restricted vis-à-vis what one could receive in a truly free market. (Because Commissioner Pete Rozelle would rule on the compensation one team would have to give the other if the teams themselves could not agree, the system became known as the “Rozelle Rule.”)<sup>36</sup></p>
<p>Marvin Miller said, “Once we had impartial arbitration, I would not have recommended anything except the most meaningful of reform,” adding that he never would have settled for free agency that called for significant compensation, similar to the Rozelle Rule. But what if the owners had been willing to give something as early as 1968, during the negotiations for the first CBA? Would they have been able to have gotten a system similar to that of their brethren in the NFL? “The thing is,” said Miller, “they never tried.”<sup>37</sup></p>
<p>Bowie Kuhn concurs that it was a mistake not to have been flexible on the issue while they had the upper hand and that he had urged the owners to negotiate.<sup>38</sup> But the executive contingent— particularly hard-liners such as Bob Howsam of Cincinnati, Paul Richards of Atlanta, August Busch of St. Louis, and later Allan “Bud” Selig of Milwaukee would not let this become a possibility.<sup>39</sup></p>
<p>Even in 1975, with their own bargaining position significantly reduced as Seitz considered his ruling on McNally-Messersmith, the owners could have held on to some portion of player control through negotiation. Instead, once Seitz made his ruling, they had lost it all.</p>
<p><strong>Aftermath</strong></p>
<p>The first thing the owners did after the decision came down was fire Seitz, which was the right of either side to do at any time. Then, as expected, the owners appealed Seitz’s decision to federal court. The appeal was based not on the decision itself but that the grievance procedure was not the proper forum for such a case.</p>
<p>“The owners had great confidence in their ability to prevail in the courts,” said Miller, offering an explanation as to why the owners chose this route rather than accept Seitz’s suggestion to work out their differences through negotiations.<sup>40</sup></p>
<p>However, the owners were unsuccessful in their appeal, first in the U. S. District Court of the Western District of Missouri and then in the Eighth District Court of Appeals. They had the option of appealing to the U. S. Supreme Court, which they finally chose not to pursue.<sup>41</sup></p>
<p>The legal challenges did not end until March 1976, which delayed negotiations on a new CBA, which had expired December 31, 1975. The new Basic Agreement would define the workings of free agency.</p>
<p>“Following the Seitz decision, all the owners could do was bargain with the players on the new Basic Agreement,” said Miller. “This time, the players held all the cards, not that you could tell by the way the owners negotiated. They offered a reserve system that would allow players with nine years’ experience to become a free agent after playing another season on a renewed contract. In other words, it would take 10 years—nine plus the option year—for a player to become a free agent.” Miller added that the owners’ proposal called for a player becoming a free agent only if his team did not offer him a certain salary. Other restrictions called for compensation to the team losing a free agent from the team that signed the player (along the lines of the NFL’s Rozelle Rule) and a limit on the number of teams that would be eligible to sign a particular free agent. Miller was amazed at the chutzpah exhibited by the owners and said it was akin to Robert E. Lee showing up at Appomattox and trying to dictate terms to Ulysses Grant.<sup>42</sup></p>
<p>With no agreement on a modified reserve system in sight, the owners ordered a lockout of spring training camps. In his negotiations, Miller faced pressure from the players in different ways. If he gave away too much, he could face litigation from players claiming that the rights gained by the Seitz decision had been abrogated by the new Basic Agreement. “I think the majority of players are willing to make a compromise on a retroactive reserve system,” said Miller at the time. “But the arbitrator’s ruling gave all the players certain legal contractual rights. Not every player would be willing to bargain these away.”<sup>43</sup></p>
<p>On the other hand, some players wanted the lockout ended, even at the cost of their newly gained freedom. Miller says he received a call from a member of the Houston Astros, telling him that something had to be done to end the lockout, even if it meant giving up the free-agent rights that the players had just received. Ken Forsch later called Miller to say that Houston general manager Tal Smith had coerced this player into making the call.<sup>44</sup></p>
<p>Fearing a split in the players’ ranks, Miller said the players would agree to a structured free agency along the general lines suggested by the owners. On March 17, Commissioner Bowie Kuhn ordered the training camps opened. The 1976 regular season started on schedule as negotiations continued.<sup>45</sup></p>
<p>A new four-year Basic Agreement was reached in the summer of 1976, calling for free agency for players with six years of major league service after playing a year under a renewed contract. These players would go into a re-entry draft, in which a maximum of 12 teams, 13 starting after the 1977 season, would draft the rights to negotiate with the player. (The player’s previous team would also retain negotiating rights to the player, and any player selected by fewer than two teams in the re-entry draft would be eligible to sign with any team.)</p>
<p>All players who had not yet signed a contract for the 1976 season would become free agents at the end of the 1976 season, and all players who had not yet signed a contract for the 1977 season would become a free agent at the end of the 1977 season, regardless of whether or not they had six years of service in the majors by that time. (This is how some short-term players, such as Lyman Bostock of the Minnesota Twins, were able to become free agents.)<sup>46</sup></p>
<p>The new system called for compensation to a team losing a free agent, but it wasn’t as significant as what the owners had hoped for. A team signing a free agent had to give the team losing the player one of its picks in the next amateur draft.<sup>47</sup> Dworkin notes that if the team acquiring a free agent was in the bottom half of the selecting clubs in the re-entry draft, it would have to give up its first pick in the upcoming amateur draft to the team that lost the player; if the acquiring team was in the top half of the re-entry draft, it would give up its second pick. Teams signing more than one free agent would give up draft choices in succeeding rounds. (Amateur draft choices in baseball are not as coveted as in some other sports, particularly football and basketball. Baseball players entering pro ball usually require time to develop in the minors and, in general, the prospects are more uncertain regarding how good the players will eventually be.)</p>
<p>The first re-entry draft was held November 2, 1976, and involved more than 20 players who had played on renewed contracts through the 1976 season. Two days later, Bill Campbell, a relief pitcher who had made $23,000 with the Minnesota Twins in 1976, signed a four-year deal for $1 million with the Boston Red Sox. Marvin Miller had expressed concern about the owners colluding to not draft and sign free agents, but his fears subsided as many other top players signed million-dollar deals with new teams over the next three weeks. Baltimore’s Reggie Jackson was the last of the big name free agents to sign and got $3 million for five years from the New York Yankees.<sup>48</sup></p>
<p>This system of free agency lasted through the remainder of the CBA, which expired at the end of 1979. The owners were adamant in wanting more substantial compensation included in the free agent system to be negotiated in the next Basic Agreement. The players  were  equally  adamant in their opposition. A strike was averted in May 1980 only by deferring the issue of free agency for another year.</p>
<p>A strike did eventually come, wiping out the middle third of the 1981 season. It was finally settled with the agreement of a player pool to be used to compensate teams losing free agents. Teams could protect either 24 or 26 players in their organization (the number depending on whether or not they signed a Type A free agent, meaning one of the top players in the majors as established by a statistical formula). The rest of the players in a team’s organization would be placed in the pool and could be drafted by a team losing a player to free agency. Up to five teams could exempt themselves from supplying players to the pool by forfeiting their right to sign a Type A free agent.<sup>49</sup></p>
<p>The significance of the player pool was that it did not require direct compensation from a team signing a free agent to the team losing that player. The new agreement also ended the re-entry draft, and free agents were no longer restricted as to the number of teams they could negotiate with.</p>
<p>Owners’ efforts to restrict player freedom and/or limit salaries continued, including some underhanded tactics. In the 1980s, teams operated in concert and adopted a hands-off policy with regard to signing free agents from other teams for the purpose of keeping salaries down. Arbitrators later determined that teams had conspired against free agents over the course of three offseasons, in violation of the collective bargaining agreement, and the owners had to agree to establish a $280 million fund to distribute to the players affected by the collusion.<sup>50</sup></p>
<p>An attempt by the owners to impose a salary cap resulted in a strike that wiped out the final portion of the 1994 season, including the playoffs and World Series, and delayed the beginning of the 1995 season. The strike ended after the players lodged an unfair labor practices complaint with the National Labor Relations Board, which sought, and received, an injunction to restore the terms and conditions of the previous Basic Agreement.<sup>51</sup> Although the players fended off a salary cap this time, the owners were eventually able to create a “payroll tax” system, calling for a tax on salaries above a certain limit for each team.</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion</strong><strong> </strong></p>
<p>The million-dollar contracts of the free-agent pioneers were significant, even if they look puny in comparison to ever rising salaries in the ensuing decades.</p>
<p>Salaries would have risen even without the abrupt demise of the reserve clause, in part simply because of inflation but also because, most likely, some freedom would have eventually been afforded the players through collective bargaining. Had the owners allowed modifications to the reserve system while they still controlled it, they no doubt would have held on to more than they have with their post-Seitz attempts to restrict salaries and player movement. Their attempt to gain substantial compensation in 1980-81 was doomed but might have been possible had it been offered earlier.</p>
<p>In his introduction to Marvin Miller’s 1991 autobiography, Bill James summed up the futility of the owners: “From 1966 to this moment, the owners have been just behind the curve, always trying to get the players to accept today the offer that would have been acceptable yesterday and generous a couple weeks ago.”<sup>52</sup></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Acknowledgments</strong></p>
<p>The author appreciates the help of Mark Armour and Bill Deane, who reviewed the content of this article for accuracy and made valuable suggestions. I am not a lawyer (although I have had the Miranda warning read to me more than once), so I am grateful for the input from SABR members Mitchell Nathanson and Larry Boes. Charles Korr also answered questions from me and contributed information. Special thanks to Marvin Miller, Bowie Kuhn, and John McHale, who consented to be interviewed.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Notes</strong></p>
<ol>
<li>Al “First Reserve Clause Enacted 100 Years Ago” in <a href="https://sabr.org/journal/article/from-a-researchers-notebook-1979/">“From a Researcher’s Notebook,”</a> <em>Baseball Research Journal. </em>Cooperstown, NY: Society for American Baseball Research, 1979, pp. 9–10; Andrew Zimbalist, <em>Baseball and Billions: A Probing </em><em>Look Inside the Big Business of Our National Pastime</em>. New York: Basic Books, 1992, p. 4. According to Zimbalist, the National League was “following the lead of the avaricious owner of the Boston club, Arthur Soden,” who proposed baseball’s first reserve clause. “His proposal secretly to reserve five players per team was adopted by the owners at a meeting in Buffalo, New York,on September 30, 1879. The number of reserved players was enlarged to eleven in 1883, twelve in 1885, fourteen in 1887; by the early 1890s the reserve clause had been extended to cover thecontracts of all players.”</li>
<li>James B. Dworkin. <em>Owners versus Players: Baseball and Collective </em> Boston: Auburn House, 1981, p. 63. Dworkin noted that although the clause had been amended slightly attimes, the language presented is from the 1973 collective bargaining agreement, which Dworkin describes as “a fairly standard version of the pre-free-agency reserve clause.” <em>The SportingNews </em><em>Official Baseball Guide 1975, </em>p. 302, describes Section 10A of the Uniform Player’s Contract: A club can automatically renew the contract of an unsigned player “for a period of one year” with the player entitled to at least 80 percent of his prior salary; <em>The </em><em>Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1976, </em>p. 285, Section 10A: “If, prior to March 1, the Player and the Club havenot agreed upon the terms of the contract, then on or before 10 days after said March 1, the Club shall have the right by written notice to the Player to renew this contract for one year.”</li>
<li>Interview with Marvin Miller, May 22, 2003.</li>
<li><em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1968, </em> 168.</li>
<li>March 2003 correspondence with Marvin Miller.</li>
<li>Interview with Marvin Miller, May 22, 2003.</li>
<li><em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1969, </em> 174, 190.</li>
<li>Leonard “Flood, Backed by Players, Plans Suit to Challenge Baseball Reserve Clause” by Leonard Koppett, <em>New York Times, </em>December 30, 1969, p. 42; Leonard Koppett, “BaseballIs Sued Under Trust Law,” <em>New York Times, </em>January 17, 1970, p. 1; <em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1970, </em>pp. 302-307; <em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1971, </em>pp.272-278;<em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1972, </em>p. 296; <em><em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide <i>1973, </i></em></em><em><em>pp. 281-282; U. S. Supreme Court decision of <i>Flood v. Kuhn, </i></em></em><em><em>407 U. S. 258 (1972), available online at http://laws.findlaw.</em></em><em>com/us/407/258.html.</em></li>
<li>Korr, <em>The End of Baseball As We Knew It, </em> 246.</li>
<li><em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1971, </em> 291.</li>
<li>Correspondence with Marvin Miller, March 2003.</li>
<li>Interview with Marvin Miller, May 22, 2003.</li>
<li>Bob “The Simmons Case—A Touchy Issue,” <em>The Sporting </em><em>News, </em>July 8, 1972, p. 4.</li>
<li>“Cards Sign Simmons,” <em>New York Times, </em>July 25, 1972, 29; Dick Kaegel, “Simmons Is ‘Relieved’ with 2 Year Contract,” <em>St. Louis </em><em>Post-Dispatch, </em>July 25, 1972, p. 1C.</li>
<li><em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1975, </em> 303.</li>
<li>“Simmons Is ‘Relieved,’” 1C.</li>
<li><em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1974, </em> 266–267.</li>
<li>Sid “Kaat Signs,” <em>Minneapolis Tribune, </em>April 6, 1973, p. 2C; Interview with Jim Kaat, April 19, 2003.</li>
<li><em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1974, </em> 267.</li>
<li>“New Contract Assures Baseball 3 Years’ Peace,” <em>Los Angeles Times, </em>February 26, 1973, E1; 1974 <em>The Sporting News Official Baseball </em><em>Guide 1974, </em>pp. 259–263.</li>
<li>Marvin <em>A Whole Different Ball Game: The Sport and Business of </em><em>Baseball. </em>Secaucus, NJ: Birch Lane Press, 1991, p. 109.</li>
<li>“Lyle Signs with Yanks for 1975—and 1974,” <em>Chicago Tribune,</em> October 3, 1974; <em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1975, </em> 302–303.</li>
<li>“Baseball Avoids Showdown Over Reserve Clause,” <em>Los Angeles Times, </em>January 14, 1975, D1.</li>
<li>Interview with Marvin Miller, May 22, 2003.</li>
<li>“Sports News Briefs: Tolan and Padres Agree on ’74 Pay,” <em>New York Times</em>, December 10, 1974, p. 62; Leonard Koppett, “A’s Hunter Ruled Free Agent,” <em>New York Times, </em>December 16, 1974, 51; “Catfish a Free Agent—His Price: Million Plus,” <em>Los Angeles </em><em>Times, </em>December 17, 1947, p. F1.</li>
<li><em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1975, </em> 300.</li>
<li>Interview with Marvin Miller, May 22, 2003.</li>
<li>Interview with Marvin Miller, May 22, 2003.</li>
<li><em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1976, </em> 285; Oscar Kahan, “Messersmith, McNally Attack Reserve System,” <em>The Sporting </em><em>News, </em>November 1, 1975, p. 8.</li>
<li>Telephone interview withs with John McHale, October 31 and November 1, 2006; Miller, <em>A Whole Different Ball Game,</em> pp. 244-245; Korr, <em>The End of Baseball As We Know It,</em> p. 152; &#8220;Dejected McNally Tells Montreal He&#8217;s Retiring,&#8221; <em>The Sporting News, </em>June 21, 1975, p. 30; Bob Dunn, &#8220;McNally Declares His Decision to Retire is Firm,&#8221; <em>The Sporting News</em>, June 28, 1975, p. 17.</li>
<li>Interview with Marvin Miller, May 22, 2003; Miller, <em>A Whole </em><em>Different Ball Game, </em> 250</li>
<li>“Baseball’s Future Was Not Issue—Seitz,” <em>Chicago Tribune, </em>December 24, 1975, p. A3.</li>
<li>Dick “Baseball’s Reserve Clause Is Dead . . . Maybe,” <em>New </em><em>York Daily News, </em>December 24, 1975, p. 38.</li>
<li>Telephone conversation, February 15, 2003, and correspondence, March 2003, with Marvin Miller.</li>
<li><em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1976, </em> 290.</li>
<li>Paul Staudohar. <em>Playing for Dollars: Labor Relations and the Sports </em><em>Business. </em>Ithaca, NY: ILR Press, 1996, pp. 65-83; Dworkin, <em>Owners </em><em>Versus Players, </em>pp. 249–250.</li>
<li>Interview with Marvin Miller, May 22, 2003.</li>
<li>Interview with Bowie Kuhn, February 26, 2003.</li>
<li>Correspondence with Marvin Miller, August 2006.</li>
<li>Telephone conversation with Marvin Miller, February 15, 2003.</li>
<li><em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1977, </em> 286.</li>
<li>Telephone interview with Marvin Miller, February 15, 2003; <em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1977, </em>p. 287; Miller, <em>A Whole Different Ball Game, </em>p. 255.</li>
<li><em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1977, </em> 287-288.</li>
<li>Interview with Marvin Miller, May 22, 2003; Miller, <em>A Whole </em><em>Different</em> <em>Ball</em> <em>Game,</em> 269-270.</li>
<li><em>The</em> <em>Sporting</em> <em>News</em> <em>Official</em> <em>Baseball Guide 1977, </em> 291.</li>
<li><em>The</em> <em>Sporting</em> <em>News</em> <em>Official</em> <em>Baseball Guide 1977, </em> 291.</li>
<li>Korr, <em>The End of Baseball As We Knew It</em>, 193; Dworkin, <em>Owners Versus Players</em>, pp. 86–87.</li>
<li><em>The</em> <em>Sporting</em> <em>News</em> <em>Official Baseball Guide 1977, </em> 283.</li>
<li><em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1982, </em> 11.</li>
<li><em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1990, </em> 20-21; <em>The Sporting News Official Baseball Guide 1991, </em>p. 25.</li>
<li>Murray Chass.“Labor Board to Seek Injunction against Baseball Club Owners; Action May Open the Way for Players’ Return,” <em>New York Times, </em>March 27, 1995, A1; “Backed by Court,Baseball Players Call Strike Over,” <em>New York Times, </em>April 1, 1995, p. 1.</li>
<li>Miller, <em>A Whole Different Ball Game, </em> xiv–xv.</li>
</ol>
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		<title>Revisiting Bill Veeck and the 1943 Phillies</title>
		<link>https://sabr.org/journal/article/revisiting-bill-veeck-and-the-1943-phillies/</link>
		
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		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Nov 2006 04:29:12 +0000</pubDate>
				<guid isPermaLink="false">https://sabr.org/?post_type=journal_articles&#038;p=94321</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Few pieces published in a SABR journal have had a greater impact than &#8220;A Baseball Myth Exploded: The Truth About Bill Veeck and the &#8217;43 Phillies,&#8221; the cover story in the 1998 edition of The National Pastime.1 The article, authored by David Jordan, Larry Gerlach, and John Rossi, challenged legendary baseball executive Bill Veeck’s claim [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Few pieces published in a SABR journal have had a greater impact than <a href="https://sabr.org/research/article/a-baseball-myth-exploded-bill-veeck-and-the-1943-sale-of-the-phillies/">&#8220;A Baseball Myth Exploded: The Truth About Bill Veeck and the &#8217;43 Phillies,&#8221;</a> the cover story in the 1998 edition of <em>The National Pastime</em>.1</p>
<p>The article, authored by David Jordan, Larry Gerlach, and John Rossi, challenged legendary baseball executive Bill Veeck’s claim that in 1943 he had attempted to buy the Philadelphia Phillies with plans to stock the team with Negro League stars, only to be thwarted by the machinations of Commissioner Kennesaw Mountain Landis and National League president Ford Frick.“The major difficulty with this oft-told story,” read a quote on the cover of <em>The National Pastime</em>, “is that it is not true. Veeck did not have a deal to buy the Phillies. He did not work to stock any team with Negro League stars. No such deal was quashed by Landis or Frick.”2</p>
<p>Veeck, the authors charged, had, at the very least misrepresented his actions, and more likely, lied to enhance his image as an integrationist. This contention, aggressively argued and persuasively supported by diligent research, became the new conventional wisdom. However, now the “major difficulty” is that recently uncovered evidence, while not definitively absolving Veeck, raises questions about the conclusions of the Jordan/Gerlach/Rossi article and lends greater credence to Veeck’s original story.</p>
<p>The saga of Bill Veeck and the 1943 Phillies gained wide circulation with the publication of Veeck’s celebrated autobiography, <em>Veeck As in Wreck</em>, in 1962. In a relatively brief two-page aside to his discussion of his 1946 signing of Larry Doby, Veeck revealed that during World War II he had approached beleaguered Phillies owner Gerry Nugent and made arrangements to purchase the club.</p>
<p>Unbeknownst to Nugent, Veeck, working with Negro League booking agent Abe Saperstein and <em>Chicago Defender </em>sports editor Doc Young, planned to field a virtual Negro League all-star team that he believed would win the 1944 National League pennant. Veeck said that he had arranged financing with the Congress of Industrial Organizations (CIO), and when that fell through, he had Phillies Cigars as another potential backer lined up. But, added Veeck, “Out of a long respect for Judge Landis I felt he was entitled to prior notification of what I intended to do.”</p>
<p>Suddenly, the National League seized control of the Phillies, and Ford Frick sold the team to lumber magnate William Cox “for about half of what I was willing to pay.” According to Veeck, he soon heard that “Frick was bragging all over the baseball world . . . about how he had stopped me from contaminating the league.”3</p>
<p>Veeck’s story adhered to the historical record in some respects but also contained key inaccuracies. The National League had indeed taken the Phillies from Nugent when he could not find an acceptable buyer and subsequently arranged a sale to Cox (who would be barred from baseball the following year for betting on his own team.) But Veeck’s scenario had the date wrong, placing these events in 1944 rather than 1943, misnamed one of his co-conspirators, confusing <em>Chicago </em><em>Defender </em>editor Fay Young, with A. S. “Doc” Young, whom he would know in Cleveland, and identifying among the Negro Leaguers he planned to sign Luke Easter, who would not make his debut until 1946.4</p>
<p>There was also another reason to be skeptical of Veeck’s claims. Veeck already possessed substantial credentials as a key figure in baseball’s historic integration. In 1947 he had signed Larry Doby to become the first African American player in the American League, becoming only the second major league owner to add a black athlete to his squad, after Branch Rickey of the Brooklyn Dodgers. Now Veeck was saying that if not for the intervention of baseball officials, he, not Rickey, would have won the accolades lavished on baseball’s “Great Emancipator.”</p>
<p>Nonetheless Veeck’s account, as Jordan et al write, had become “an article of historical faith, found in virtually every general history of black and white professional baseball as well as studies of racial integration.”5 Robert Peterson included it in <em>Only the Ball Was White. </em>Donn Rogosin and I, both of whom also interviewed Veeck on the subject, presented the story uncritically in our 1983 books, <em>Invisible Men </em>and <em>Baseball’s Great Experiment</em>.6 All of us took Veeck at his word; none of us sought to corroborate the tale.</p>
<p>The 1998 <em>National Pastime </em>article thus came as a bombshell. Indeed, the journal presented it as such. In addition to the splashy cover and provocative title, <em>The National Pastime </em>presented the revelations as its lead story and, in a periodical in which the typical article ran two to five pages, devoted 11 pages to its exposition. Editor Mark Alvarez in his preamble comments to the issue wrote, “Our lead article . . . definitively debunks a baseball myth created by Bill Veeck, one of the few owners who would probably get a favorable rating by SABR’s membership.”7</p>
<p>The prominence of the three authors lent even more credibility to the exposé. David Jordan, the author of three biographies, including one of pitcher Hal Newhouser, is one of the foremost authorities on Philadelphia baseball history. John Rossi is a professor of history at LaSalle University in Philadelphia. Larry Gerlach, a professor of history at the University of Utah, had published the pioneering volume of oral histories, <em>The Men in Blue: Conversations With Umpires</em>, and more significantly, was the president of SABR at the time.8</p>
<p>Jordan, Gerlach, and Rossi noted that Veeck’s account “has never been corroborated by anyone else . . . the source always turns out to be the two pages in the autobiography or an interview with Veeck himself.”9 Despite dogged digging in newspapers, document collections, and autobiographies they could uncover no evidence to support his tale. Abe Saperstein had never discussed Veeck’s plan, nor had Fay Young. No Negro League player had ever mentioned being recruited by Saperstein, Young, or Veeck to play for the Phillies. Contemporary newspaper reports and an interview with Rudie Schaffer, Veeck’s top assistant during these years, confirmed that Veeck had met with Phillies owner Gerry Nugent in October 1942. But according to Schaffer and other accounts, nothing had come of this meeting. No firm offer had been made or accepted. During the critical months leading up to the sale of the team in February 1943. Veeck’s name never came up as a potential buyer.</p>
<p>The three scholars searched not only the mainstream press and <em>The Sporting News </em>for corroboration of Veeck’s claims, but the African American week lies as well. The <em>Philadelphia Tribune </em>never picked up on the story. Fay Young’s <em>Chicago Defender</em>, which supposedly had an inside track, never mentioned Veeck’s plan; nor did any of the other major African American periodicals. “The silence of the black press,” concluded Jordan et al, “is deafening.”10 <em>The </em><em>Communist Daily Worker </em>had addressed the sale of the Phillies and even advised the new owner to “look for first rate players . . . among those Negro League players who have never been given a major league chance.” But the <em>Worker </em>never mentioned Veeck’s name in connection with this story.11 With regard to CIO involvement, the authors note, “a bankrupt baseball team seems an odd investment for the CIO to make during the war.” Research into the CIO archives uncovered “no mention of Bill Veeck or the possible financing of his purchase of the Phillies.”12</p>
<p>Jordan et al also searched the black and white press at key moments of Veeck’s career when the story might have surfaced. Veeck purchased the Cleveland Indians in 1946, the year when Jackie Robinson debuted in Montreal and speculation existed about which other teams might follow the Brooklyn Dodger lead. The only mention of Veeck’s attempt to buy the Phillies appeared in a column by Red Smith. Smith wrote,“Hardly anyone knows how close Veeck came to buying the Phillies when the National League was forcing Gerry Nugent to sell. He had the financial backing and the inside track, but at the last minute, he decided the risk was too great to take with his friend’s money.”13</p>
<p>Smith had worked for the <em>Philadelphia Record </em>in 1942-43, but, as Jordan et al point out, this story likely came not from any firsthand knowledge, but from Veeck himself and the reason that the deal fell through offered here differs from later accounts. More significantly, neither Smith nor any newspaper in 1946, black or white, not even the <em>Chicago Defende</em>r or <em>Cleveland Call and Post</em>, displayed an inkling of awareness of Veeck’s plan to field a team of Negro Leaguers. Similarly, in 1947 when Veeck signed Doby, and 1948 when, amidst great publicity he recruited Satchel Paige, no one brought up the Phillies precedent.14</p>
<p>Moreover, the three authors found numerous inaccuracies, inconsistencies, and improbabilities in Veeck’s version of events. Why would the cash-strapped Nugent have accepted an offer for his team that would have netted him half as much as the Veeck bid? Since Veeck owned the minor league Milwaukee franchise and Landis had no jurisdiction over the minors, why hadn’t Veeck assigned the players he had recruited to play for the Brewers? How, if Frick had “bragged all over the baseball world” about his actions, had the story never leaked out? As Jordan et al observed, Veeck had “a singularly cavalier attitude toward the details of the story.”15 Interviews with Rogosin, Wendell Smith, Shirley Povich, and me differed in the names of the players involved, the sportswriter he had worked with, and the timing of his offer, sometimes placing it before Nugent had turned the team over to the National League and at others implying that he had dealt directly with Frick after the takeover.</p>
<p>Indeed, these inconsistencies led Jordan et al to conclude that Veeck’s integration saga was an “ex post facto . . . latter-day construction,”16 a tale concocted by Veeck in the early 1960s. Veeck, they argue, might have thought about buying the Phillies and might have been influenced by 1942 articles in the <em>People’s Voice </em>and <em>The Sporting News that speculated about how successful an all-black team would be in the National League, but he had never seriously attempted to bring this scenario to fruition.17</em></p>
<p>The first published version of the story discovered by Jordan et al appeared in 1960. Veeck told a writer for <i>Ebony </i>magazine that he “wanted to buy the Philadelphia ballclub to put in an all-Negro team.” Shortly before the publication of <i>Veeck As in Wreck</i>, <i>Pittsburgh Courier </i>sportswriter Wendell Smith, who had covered the integration beat since the 1930s, described Veeck’s efforts to buy the Phillies, but his account came not from first-hand knowledge, but from a recent interview with Veeck. Jordan et al imply that Veeck’s fabrication dated from this time. In commenting on the <i>Ebony </i>piece, they state, “Clearly the story was embellishedand changed for the autobiography a couple of years later.”18 At another point they suggest that “this story may have resulted from Bill Veeck’s ill health at the time he sat down with Ed Linn to do his book.” Fearing that he might soon die, “he probably felt this book was to be the last chance to poke the baseball powers in the eye, to steal some credit from Rickey, and to polish his own place in baseball history.”19</p>
<p>The arguments presented in “A Baseball Myth Exploded” fell into two categories. As in the case of “Sherlock Holmes’s non barking dog,”their inability to discover any corroboration for Veeck’s claims, they believed, spoke volumes about the validity of the story.20 Furthermore, many of the elements of Veeck’s tale lacked even a modicum of common sense. Jordan et al, using the strongest possible language, speculated on how people would have acted if confronted by various situations. It is, they assert, “<em>inconceivable </em>that Veeck’s Phillies project would not have become a matter of public currency, at least within the world of Negro baseball.” That the black press would not have reacted to Veeck’s betrayal “with great vehemence” is “simply not believable.” Nugent’s acquiescence in Frick’s chicanery “defies economic logic.” 21 Thus, they concluded, “we must face the fact that Bill Veeck falsified the historical record.”22</p>
<p>Given the revisionist nature of the article and its open attack on Veeck’s character, “A Baseball Myth Debunked,’ triggered surprisingly few challenges. Gerlach had sent me an earlier draft in June 1997 and requested a critique. In an e-mail response I raised several objections.23 I pointed out that he, Jordan and Rossi, were trying to prove a negative, a virtually impossible task</p>
<p>Gerlach responded, “That is why we read so far and wide in every conceivable source. In the end we concluded that the absence of evidence is ipso-facto negative; it would not be reasonable to conclude otherwise.” I also argued that I found the press silence on this matter less unusual than they did and could think of other reasons why they might not have pursued this. I did not agree with the proposition that had Veeck been serious about integration in 1942, he could simply have added black players to the Brewers.</p>
<p>I also made two other criticisms. In the article Jordan et al had indicated that sportswriters had not commented on the Phillies revelation, indicating that they did not believe Veeck. I noted that the episode occupied on two pages in a 377-page book and that sportswriters had probably over-looked it, rather than rejected it. More pointedly, I wondered about Frick’s response, or lack of one, to Veeck’s charges. In 1962 Frick was the commissioner of baseball. Veeck had charged him with being a duplicitous racist. Yet Frick had never denied the tale. “Why did Frick allow this blot on his record to stand if it werenot true?” I asked.</p>
<p>In the published version of the article, Jordan et al addressed this point, noting that Veeck had taken many “potshots” at Frick in the book, but argued that since“the baseball press generally gave the volume short shrift . . . there was little pressure on Frick to respond to any of Veeck’s charges.” Frick had decided “that his best course would be to ignore Veeck’s work altogether.”24</p>
<p>Indeed, when Frick published his own autobiography in 1973, he made no mention of Veeck at all.25 The assertion that the press, baseball or otherwise, gave <em>Veeck </em><em>As in Wreck </em>“short shrift” seemed odd. The book, after all, was a sensation. It was widely reviewed and within twelve days of publication had gone into four printings. It rose as high as ninth place among <em>New York Times </em>bestsellers and remained on the list at least eight weeks.26</p>
<p>Nonetheless, while reviewers and other commentators remarked on his sending a midget to the plate and other promotional stunts and described his running battles with the baseball establishment, none had addressed the Phillies integration saga. Jordan et al were probably correct in their assessment of Frick’s response.</p>
<p>Despite my reservations about particular arguments, I generally accepted the overall thrust of <em>The National Pastime </em>article. Not so Mike Gimbel. He was a SABR member who published annual player ratings manuals and had worked as a statistics analyst for the Montreal Expos and Boston Red Sox. He wrote to SABR executive director Morris Eckhouse, protesting the Veeck article.27</p>
<p>“It is with great sadness and outrage that I must request that my name be removed from the membership list of SABR,” wrote Gimbel. “Shame on SABR for printing this scurrilous article. Shame on SABR for putting it on the cover.”</p>
<p>Gimbel raised some of the same points I had: the negative nature of the evidence, the failure of Frick to rebut the charges, the popularity of Veeck’s book. But in far more pungent prose he attacked the authors as “mean spirited” and protested the tone of the article. He criticized their over-reliance on newspapers. “For Veeck to have gone to even a single reporter to tell anyone of his plans would have been suicidal of the time,” wrote Gimbel, given the “absolute and total racism in the US, both North and South,” at the time.</p>
<p>He noted that the inconsistency in Veeck’s retelling could be construed as a point in his favor. “If it were totally consistent then I would really be suspicious about the story,” countered Gimbel. He had hoped that SABR would publish his response in a subsequent publication, but the organization failed to do so.28</p>
<p>Gimbel’s angry missive notwithstanding, the article in <em>The National Pastime </em>convinced most SABR members and those in the baseball world who became aware of it that Veeck, a master storyteller often prone to exaggeration, had largely invented the tale of his attempt to integrate the 1943 Phillies. However, their considerable exertions notwithstanding, Jordan et al had not, indeed could not possibly have, examined all of the available newspapers that might have mentioned this scheme. They had, in effect, rounded up all of the usual suspects, looking for coverage at times it seemed most likely the story might be referenced. But in recent years researchers perusing the African American press have found earlier references to Veeck’s plans that at least partially debunk the new myth that the 1998 exposé created.</p>
<p>In a footnote in his path breaking 2004 study, <em>Negro League Baseball: The Rise and Ruin of a Black </em><em>Institution</em>, Neil Lanctot wrote, “there is scattered evidence to suggest [Veeck’s] involvement with Saperstein and Fay Young.” Lanctot references an article in the <em>Chicago Defender </em>on February 26, 1949, in which Young had described an address by Veeck to the Chicago Urban League. The Indians owner stated he had spoken with Young “for several hours about integrating Negroes in major league baseball. At that time I was planning to buy the Philadelphia Nationals.” Lanctot also noted a 1954 report from the Associated Negro Press in which Abe Saperstein talked about the matter.29</p>
<p>In 2005, while thumbing through <em>Great Negro Baseball Stars, </em>a long out-of-print book written by S. “Doc” Young in 1953, I found a passage about Veeck when he bought the Indians in 1946: “Negro writers soon recognized Veeck as a person likely to give an ear to the proposition of Negroes playing in the American League. Perhaps they had heard the unsubstantiated story that Veeck once shocked baseball’s late commissioner Kennesaw Mountain Landis, with a proposal to buy a major league club and transform it into an all-colored aggregation.”30</p>
<p>These citations clearly disproved one of the basic Jordan/Gerlach/Rossi assertions — that Veeck’s story was a “latter-day creation” that he had begun to tell widely only in the early 1960s. It also offered at least partial corroboration from three individuals whom the authors had deemed central to their 1998 exposé. Fay Young and Saperstein, Veeck’s purported collaborators, had indeed both mentioned the plot. With regard to “Doc” Young, who as the sports editor of the <em>Cleveland Call and Post </em>had had extensive access to Veeck during the latter’s years in Cleveland, Jordan et al had asserted, “Young’s silence is significant.”31 But he too, like Fay Young and Saperstein, had not truly been silent on this matter.</p>
<p>Upon discovering the passage in <em>Great Negro </em><em>Baseball Stars, </em>I sent a message to SABR-L, the discussion list for the Society of American Baseball Research.32 I received several responses from people who had also found pre-1960 references to the Veeck-Phillies venture. Christopher Hauser fleshed out the Saperstein connection. He reported on the following item in the August 14, 1954 <i>Philadelphia Independent</i>:</p>
<div>
<blockquote>
<p><em>Abe Saperstein of the fabulous Harlem Globetrotters stated this week in a press interview that baseball magnate Bill Veeck had intended to use a baseball trick back in 1942 which would have upset the thinking in the major league, had it materialized. “I’ll tell you one thing about Veeck,” said Saperstein, “something that few people know. In 1942 the Phillies were for sale and Veeck attempted to buy them. But Bill Cox raised more money and got the club. Do you know what Veeck planned to do? He was going to take the Phils to spring training in Florida and then — on the day the season opened — dispose of the entire team. Meanwhile, with a team composed entirely of Negroes, who would have trained separately, he could have opened the National League season. I don’t think there was a team in either league, back in 1943, that could have stopped the team he was going to assemble.”33</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Saperstein’s account bore striking similarities to that offered by Veeck confidant Rudie Schaffer in <em>The National Pastime </em>article. Jordan et al had interviewed Schaffer, the only participant still alive when they were conducting research. Schaffer had told them that Veeck “even had the idea of holding two separate spring training camps, one as a blind, for the white players he was not going to use, the other for the blacks who would constitute his team when the season started.”34 Jordan et al had summarily dismissed this recollection in a footnote, exclaiming, “One wonders how eager Veeck’s backers would have been to finance <em>two </em>training camps instead of the usual one!”35</p>
<p>Hauser had also uncovered a relatively detailed account of Veeck’s plans in an article by Randy Dixon in the <em>Philadelphia Independent </em>on September 9, 1956. Dixon’s rendition adhered closely to Veeck’s later versions. Veeck and Saperstein had dreamt up the scheme and had proposed it to Landis, who referred them to Frick. Landis had expressed his displeasure to Frick, who “wouldn’t talk business” with Veeck and sold the franchise to Cox. The article offered a longer list of proposed players, including Oscar Charleston and Cool Papa Bell, whose careers had more or less ended by 1943.36</p>
<p>Another SABR-L participant, David Kaiser, produced a reference to a column by Shirley Povich on May 10, 1953.37 Veeck told Povich the same story reported by Dixon: “Landis stopped me, I think. It was after Gerry Nugent had tossed in the towel with the Philadelphia Phillies and the franchise was back in the lap of the league. Abe Saperstein, an owner in the Negro National League, and I had plans.” Frick refused to deal with Veeck. “I don’t blame the other club owners,” Veeck allowed. “We’d have walked away with the pennant.”38</p>
<p>Taken together, these references loosen the underpinnings of some, though not all, of the Jordan/Gerlach/Rossi exposé. In all of these accounts the only voice telling the story remains Veeck’s. Saperstein repeats the tale but never acknowledges his own role, does not indicate that this is a firsthand account, and fails to confirm the details of a meeting with Landis. Doc Young’s knowledge of the rumors most likely came from Veeck. Fay Young reports Veeck’s account that describes his role and does not contradict it. In this case the Holmesian dog does not bark in Veeck’s favor. In particular, Young’s role is reduced to several hours of consultation rather than active participation. Nonetheless, if Veeck’s story was a “latter-day construction,” he created it not in the early 1960s but sometime in the 1940s, shortly after the events purportedly took place. He told one variation to Red Smith no later than 1946. Three years later he described his plan in greater detail to the Chicago Urban League. Over the next decade he retold the story frequently. Certain elements varied — whether he made his offer to Cox or to Frick, the lineup of Negro League stars — but the basic framework of Veeck’s contentions is remarkably consistent.</p>
<p>The overall assessment of Jordan et al — that Veeck’s notion of buying the Phillies and fielding a team of Negro League stars never quite moved as far from the drawing board as Veeck claimed — may still be true. We still lack any solid evidence that confirms that Veeck had not only conceptualized this action, but made a firm offer to buy the Phillies and met a rebuff by Landis and Frick. But Jordan et al’s blanket dismissal of Veeck’s assertions and confident branding of Veeck as a liar no longer stand uncontested. In their <em>National Pastime </em>article they had correctly chastised earlier historians for accepting Veeck’s narrative at face value and injected a dose of skepticism, replacing unwarranted certainty with healthy debate. Their own rush to judgment, however, offers yet another cautionary tale of relying on an absence of evidence and overreaching one’s resources in drawing conclusions.</p>
<p><em><strong>JULES TYGIEL</strong> is a Professor of History at San Francisco State University. He is the author of Baseball’s Great Experiment: Jackie Robinson and His Legacy.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Notes</strong></p>
<ol>
<li>David M. Jordan, Larry Gerlach, and John P. Rossi. “A Baseball Myth Exploded: The Truth About Bill Veeck and the ’43 Phillies,” <em>The National Pastime </em>(1998), 3–13.</li>
<li><em>The National Pastime </em>(1998),</li>
<li>Bill Veeck, with Ed Linn. <em>Veeck — As in Wreck </em>(New York: G.P. Putnam’s Sons, 1962), 171–72.</li>
<li>Jordan et al also fault Veeck for including Monte Irvin on his list, since Irvin was in the However, Irvin had played in the Negro Leagues in 1942, and in the fall of 1942 Veeck mightnot have been aware that Irvin had entered the military.</li>
<li>Jordan et al,</li>
<li>Robert Peterson. <em>Only the Ball Was White </em>(Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1970); Donn Rogosin, <em>Invisible Men: Life in Baseball’s Negro Leagues </em>(New York: Atheneum, 1983); JulesTygiel, <em>Baseball’s </em><em>Great Experiment: Jackie Robinson and His Legacy </em>(New York: Oxford University Press, 1983). Jordan et al list 15 additional books that uncritically accepted Veeck’srecollections.</li>
<li><em>The National Pastime </em>(1998),</li>
<li>David <em>A Tiger in His Time: Hal Newhouser and the Burden </em><em>of Wartime Ball </em>(Diamond Communications, 1991); Larry M. Gerlach, <em>The Men in Blue: Conversations With Umpires</em>(New York: Viking, 1980). In subsequent years Jordan has also written <em>The Athletics of Philadelphia: Connie Mack’s White Elephants, 1901–1954</em>, (Jefferson, NC: McFarland, 1999) and <em>Occasional Glory: The History of the Philadelphia Phillies</em>, (Jefferson, NC: McFarland, 2003). Rossi is author of <em>A Whole New Game: Off the Field Changes in Baseball, 1946– </em><em>1960</em>, (Jefferson, NC: McFarland, 1999); <em>The National Game: Baseball and American Culture </em>(New York: Ivan R. Dee, 2000); and <em>The 1964 </em><em>Phillies: The Story of Baseball’s Most MemorableCollapse </em>(Jefferson, NC: McFarland, 2005).</li>
<li>Jordan et al, 5.</li>
<li>Jordan et al, 6.</li>
<li>Jordan et al, 6.</li>
<li>Jordan et al, 9.</li>
<li>Jordan et al, 6.</li>
<li>Jordan et al, 7.</li>
<li>Jordan et al, 8–9.</li>
<li>Jordan et al, 8, 11.</li>
<li>Jordan et al, 9.</li>
<li>Jordan et al, 9.</li>
<li>Jordan et al, 11.</li>
<li>Jordan et al, 3.</li>
<li>Jordan et al, 6, 5. Italics added.</li>
<li>Jordan et al, 12.</li>
<li>The following references all come from an e-mail, Larry Gerlach to Jules Tygiel, July 9, 1997. I do not have a copy of the original critique I sent to Gerlach, but excerpts from that messagewere included in Gerlach’s response.</li>
<li>Jordan et al, 9–10. In his e-mail to me Gerlach indicated that this issue had been addressed at greater length in a fuller version of the article that I had not seen.</li>
<li>Ford C. Frick. <em>Games, Asterisks, and People: Memoirs of a Lucky Fan </em>(New York, Crown, 1973)<em>.</em></li>
<li>See <em>New York Times Book Review</em>, August 5–September 16, 1962, and <em>New York Times</em>, August 1, 1962.</li>
<li>Mike Gimbel to Morris Eckhouse, July 11, 1998 (author copy). For a brief portrait of Gimbel, see Alan Schwarz, <em>The Numbers </em><em>Game: Baseball’s Lifelong Fascination With Statistics </em>(NewYork: Martin’s Press, 2004).</li>
<li>E-mail Mike Gimbel to Jules Tygiel, March 19, Gimbel did later rejoin SABR.</li>
<li>Neil Lanctot. <em>Negro League Baseball: The Rise and Ruin of a Black Institution </em>(Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2004), 236–41.</li>
<li>S. “Doc” Young. Great <em>Negro Baseball Stars and How They Made the Major Leagues </em>(New York: A.S. Barnes, 1953), 52.</li>
<li>Jordan et al, 8.</li>
<li>E-mail Jules Tygiel to SABR-L, March 12, 2005.</li>
<li>E-mail Christopher Hauser to SABR-L, March 14, 2005.</li>
<li>Jordan et al, 11.</li>
<li>Jordan et al, 13–39.</li>
<li>E-mail Christopher Hauser to SABR-L, March 23, 2005.</li>
<li>E-mail David Kaiser to SABR-L, September 18, 2005.</li>
<li><em>Washington Post</em>, May 10, 1953.</li>
</ol>
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		<title>Interleague Attendance Boost Mostly a Mirage</title>
		<link>https://sabr.org/journal/article/interleague-attendance-boost-mostly-a-mirage/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[admin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Nov 2006 04:07:44 +0000</pubDate>
				<guid isPermaLink="false">https://sabr.org/?post_type=journal_articles&#038;p=94319</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Over the past 10 years, interleague play has become one of the rites of summer for baseball fans. Interleague play arrives with a lot of fanfare, as so-called “natural rivals” square off while new teams from the other league come to town for the first or second time, theoretically creating a set of unusual and [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Over the past 10 years, interleague play has become one of the rites of summer for baseball fans. Interleague play arrives with a lot of fanfare, as so-called “natural rivals” square off while new teams from the other league come to town for the first or second time, theoretically creating a set of unusual and attractive matchups that get the fans excited and boost attendance.</p>
<p>Interleague play is also typically one of the accomplishments cited as part of MLB’s PR campaign to persuade people that the sport hascome all the way back from the devastating strike of the mid-1990s. Along with the Division Series and the wild card, interleague play is given credit by many pundits for reviving interest in the national pastime and pumping up attendance.</p>
<p>Without detailed information from a marketing survey, it’s impossible to quantify just how much extra interest interleague play generates among fans. Regardless, it certainly generates a spate of predictable stories each summer in the media, many of them focused on how much inter-league play boosts attendance. Most of these stories are fueled by the annual press releases from MLB touting the increased attendance in inter-league games as compared to intraleague games.</p>
<div>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><strong>The Pitch</strong></p>
<p>A July 3, 2006, press release published on MLB.com boasted that the 252 interleague games in 2006 set records for total fans (8,592,482) as well as average attendance (34,097). It added that interleague play had boosted attendance 13.2% from 1997 to 2006. On the surface, that seems an impressive endorsement of what was viewed as a radical policy back in the 1990s.</p>
<p>These numbers are very misleading, however, mostly because they fail to account for two scheduling factors that pump up interleague attendance and make interleague/intraleague comparison artificially positive. A closer look at this sunny spin on interleague play tells a different story.</p>
<div>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><strong>Interleague Attendance Analysis</strong></p>
<p>From 1997 through 2006, there have been 2,439 interleague games with an average attendance of 32,838, compared to 20,368 intraleague games with an average attendance of 29,099. On the surface, that would show an apparent increase of 13.2% in attendance for interleague games.</p>
<p>Except in the first year of interleague play in 1997, when some games were played in August and September, about 80% of all interleague games have been played in June, with most of the rest being played in July. Because of that favorable treatment, interleague play starts with a built-in attendance advantage: they aren’t played in the cold weather months and are mostly played after school gets out for the summer.</p>
<p>Taking into account the time of the season when interleague games were played (i.e., normalizing by the day of the year), the weighted average of intraleague attendance becomes 29,763, reducing the apparent attendance increase to only 10%. (The weighted average is calculated by taking the intraleague average for days of interleague play multiplied by the number of interleague games on that date.)</p>
<p>That’s not the only important advantage the schedulers bestow on interleague games, however. Previous analyses of the positive effect interleague play has on attendance have ignored the fact that more than 61% of interleague games have been played on the weekend, compared to only 46% of intraleague games. Scheduling the bulk of interleague games on weekends provides a hidden favoritism and represents an overlooked factor that dramatically changes any attendance assessment.</p>
<p>Taking into account the effects of the days of the week when interleague games have been played, the average of intraleague games on those days is 29,910, making the apparent attendance increase for interleague play also about 10%. When both special factors are considered, we add 664 to the average intraleague attendance to compensate for the day of the year and a further 811 to compensate for day of the week. These adjustments raise the weighted intraleague average to 30,574, which reduces the overall attendance gain for interleague play to only seven percent.</p>
<p>As one might expect, most of the interleague attendance gain was in 1997, its first year, where the apparent (i.e., unadjusted) attendance increase was 33,421/27,727 or 21%. The apparent increase for subsequent seasons (1998–2006) was much smaller: 32,783/29,249 or 12%. <em>The true gain </em><em>provided by interleague play, then, is reduced to only five percent after the first year </em>(the 32,782 interleague average divided by the 29,248 intraleague average plus adjustments of 970 for days of the month and 904 for days of the week).</p>
<div>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Figures Sometimes Lie</strong></p>
<p>All “attendance” figures announced by Major League Baseball and its 30 clubs are actually the number of tickets sold, not the number of people <em>at the game </em>or even the number of people <em>at the game </em>who paid to get into the park. Because MLB no longer announces what used to be called “the turnstile count,” it’s easy to jigger these modern “attendance” figures. Moreover, both individual clubs as well as MLB itself can engage in various maneuvers to pad reported attendance.</p>
<p>One typical way that MLB has spun its attendance numbers in the past few years is by publicizing total attendance instead of per-game attendance. Since baseball expanded by adding four teams in the 1990s, thus adding more than 15% to the number of games played in the past 13 years, these “all-time” records really aren’t that impressive. MLB <em>should </em>be setting records for total attendance because it has more teams than ever before. MLB reported per-game attendance of 31,423 in 2006, a tiny bit higher than 1993’s 31,337 and second only to the strike-shortened 1994 season’s all-time peak of 31,612.</p>
<p>Another, more blatant attendance-padding fiction was engaged in by Florida in 2002. Apparently in order to avoid the embarrassment of having new owner Jeffrey Loria’s Marlins draw fewer fans than his former club—the forlorn, MLB-owned Expos—someone supposedly bought more than 10,000 tickets to the last Florida home game in late September. The club acknowledged the bulk purchase but refused to provide any information about who bought the ducats or why.</p>
<p>A September 30, 2002, story by respected veteran Associated Press sports business reporter Ron Blum, reported:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>&#8220;Florida drew 813,118, an average of 10,038. On Sunday the Marlins announced a crowd of 28,599—its second largest at home this year—but only about 8,000 fans appeared to be in the ballpark.&#8221;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Marlins president David Samson said a long-time fan of the team who lives in south Florida bought more than 15,000 tickets that went unused—which enabled the Marlins to surpass the Expos. Samson said the fan wasn’t affiliated with the organization but declined to identify him.</p>
<p>On a much bigger scale, MLB organized a “charitable” ticket donation in 2004 and 2005 called the “Commissioner’s Initiative for Kids.” This program distributed one million tickets each season to Boys &amp; Girls Clubs and other charities <em>after </em>Ameriquest—one of MLB’s official sponsors— paid one dollar each for those tickets. Because these “charitable” tickets were actually paid for, they were counted in the attendance totals.</p>
<p>How many of those tickets actually put a kid in a ballpark is unknown, but it’s likely that many went unused given that the initiative wasn’t even announced until August 9 in 2004 and until July 27 in 2005. No explanation was given for announcing the initiative about two months after school got out in most cities, especially in the second year of the program, when it could have been announced before the season started.</p>
<p>MLB did not announce any new Commissioner’s Initiative for Kids for the 2006 season. With 2006 MLB attendance headed for another all-time high, perhaps the padding was deemed unnecessary. Or perhaps the lateness of the announcement each season meant the benefit was limited. Or maybe no one cared anymore about the short-lived “initiative” since it clearly wasn’t designed with the primary goal of benefiting children.</p>
<div>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><strong>Conclusions</strong></p>
<p>Interleague play is only one of the recent innovations that have continued to change the  face and the pace of the national pastime. Scheduling interleague play in large blocks only during the summer months interrupts the flow of the great baseball tradition that Jim Brosnan simply but eloquently dubbed <em>The Long Season </em>in his 1959 diary. In a similar way, the wild card has depleted the excitement of old-fashioned pennant races: the Detroit Tigers celebrated—complete with champagne sprays—clinching a post-season berth in 2006 a week before they <em>lost </em>the AL Central title to the Twins on the last day of play.</p>
<p>Both innovations have positive and negative effects. With the wild card, more teams appear to be in contention for a longer period of time, boosting attendance in cities where interest would suffer late in the season. That’s a real and obvious gain. Yet the wild card also has its less visible costs. It has pretty much made the classic barnburner–kind of pennant race obsolete; after all, if both teams get to advance to the post-season, the pressure and excitement is greatly diminished. Bobby Thomson’s home run surely would never have been dubbed the “Shot Heard ‘Round the World” by New York’s ink-stained wretches if there was a wild card berth in 1951.</p>
<p>In the same way, the extra layer of post-season series simultaneously creates a visible benefit along with a longer, subtler kind of corrosive effect. Clubs that haven’t played in October for years are thrilled to see any kind of post-season action, but teams that perennially make the postseason quickly find that many fans eschew the Division Series, viewing it merely as an extension of the regular season or as a tune-up for the LCS and World Series. The thousands of empty seats seen at so many Division Series games—not to mention TV ratings in the low single digits—testify to the blasé attitude so many baseball fans display toward the first round of MLB’s “playoffs.”</p>
<p>Notwithstanding the measurable benefit, there are very real—if yet unmeasured—costs associated with interleague play that profoundly affect baseball’s popularity and financial health. The dramatic drop in interest in the All-Star game appears to be directly related to interleague play, and the almost yearly setting of all-time lows seen in post-season TV ratings in the past five years— even as announced regular-season attendance was setting records—is also related.</p>
<p>Historically, one of baseball’s core strengths compared to other sports was the attractiveness of its midsummer classic. With interleague play showcasing the stars of one league against the other league during the regular season, the All-Star game naturally loses much of its luster. Thus, the decline in ratings is part of the hidden but very real cost of interleague play.</p>
<p>The same is true of the World Series, where Game One in 2006 garnered an unbelievably low rating—meaning that less than one TV set in 12 was tuned to the first game of the fall classic. The five-game match between the Tigers and Cardinals—a Cinderella team versus an under-dog team, both led by famous managers, both of whom had defied the odds—managed to garner only a record-low 10.1 rating and 17 share. Games three, four, and five of the World Series were not even ranked among Nielsen’s top 10 most-watched prime-time programs for the week, drawing fewer viewers than NBC’s <i>Sunday Night Football</i>, ABC’s <i>Desperate Housewives </i>and <i>Dancing with the Stars</i>, and several different <i>CSI </i>series on CBS.</p>
<p>Now that interleague play has taken the bloom off the All-Star rose, baseball is faced with the Hobson’s choice of cutting out interleague play or changing its traditional All-Star format. Since the former seems unlikely to happen in the near future, MLB has to figure out how to avoid having its midsummer classic become merely an after-thought to its home run-hitting contest, somewhat like the NBA’s slam-and-jam all-star game, or an afterthought to the season like the NFL’s Pro Bowl.</p>
<p>One factor that could not be measured with the available attendance data is the real possibility that fans who plan on attending a certain number of games per season might be more likely to choose an attractive or unique interleague matchup, thus reducing attendance at other games. The extent to which this happens is unknown, but whatever effect it has would create an incorrect appearance of a net gain when it is really just shifting attendance from intraleague games to interleague ones. And it would further reduce the real boost given by interleague play below the current five percent.</p>
<p>While it provides some tangible benefit, interleague play’s effect on attendance is mostly a mirage. When one considers that interleague schedules are engineered to be as attractive as possible, more than half of the apparent attendance gain that MLB boasts melts away. When one considers the double scheduling of “natural rivals” and the rotation of divisions in interleague play, the average five percent advantage realized since 1998 is extremely modest.</p>
<p><em><strong>GARY GILLETTE</strong> and <strong>PETE PALMER</strong> are co-editors of both the ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia, now in its fourth edition, and the ESPN Pro Football Encyclopedia, the second edition of which will be published in 2007.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Notes</strong></p>
<p>Per-game attendance figures quoted in this analysis are technically per-opening numbers. In baseball parlance, an opening is defined as a single game or a doubleheader with a single admission price. Day/night doubleheaders with separate admissions are considered the same as single games. Because of the fact that doubleheaders have rarely been played in the past decade, per-game and per-opening figures are virtually identical.</p>
<p>Unofficial attendance figures as reported in the media were used for this analysis. These attendance figures originate with MLB or with its clubs. There may be some small differences between those figures and the final, official figures released by MLB after the season ends, but they would be very minor.<i></i></p>
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		<title>Does Money Buy Success? The Relationship Between Payrolls and Victories in Major League Baseball, 1996–2005</title>
		<link>https://sabr.org/journal/article/does-money-buy-success-the-relationship-between-payrolls-and-victories-in-major-league-baseball-1996-2005/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[admin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Nov 2006 03:45:03 +0000</pubDate>
				<guid isPermaLink="false">https://sabr.org/?post_type=journal_articles&#038;p=94310</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Unlike every other major professional sport in the United States, Major League Baseball has no cap on team payrolls. As a result, there are vast disparities in the size of these payrolls. Teams from large markets with lucrative local television and radio contracts can vastly outspend teams from small markets that lack such contracts. In [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Unlike every other major professional sport in the United States, Major League Baseball has no cap on team payrolls. As a result, there are vast disparities in the size of these payrolls. Teams from large markets with lucrative local television and radio contracts can vastly outspend teams from small markets that lack such contracts. In the 2005 season, team payrolls ranged from 29.7 million dollars for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays to 208.3 million dollars for the New York Yankees. And the gap between baseball’s haves and have-nots has been growing. Between 1996 and 2005, the difference between baseball’s largest payroll and smallest payroll increased from 36.8 million dollars to 178.6 million dollars.</p>
<p>Teams with larger payrolls should enjoy a substantial competitive advantage over teams with smaller payrolls. And this appears to be the case. In 2005, for example, the seven teams with payrolls larger than 90 million dollars won an average of 55.6% of their games while the seven teams with payrolls smaller than 50 million dollars won an average of only 45.1% of their games.</p>
<p>Still, there are many exceptions to the rule that a larger payroll means greater success on the playing field. In 2005, the San Francisco Giants with a payroll of 90.2 million dollars won only 46.3% of their games while the Cleveland Indians with a payroll of only 41.5 million dollars won 57.4% of their games. And such anomalies are not rare. In recent years teams with very modest payrolls, like the Minnesota Twins and the Oakland A’s, have enjoyed considerable success while teams with much larger payrolls, like the New York Mets and Texas Rangers, have performed poorly.</p>
<p>So overall, how much difference does money make in team success? To answer this question, I calculated the correlations between team payrolls and won-lost percentages for the last 10 baseball seasons. The results are displayed in Table 1. A correlation coefficient measures the strength of the relationship between two variables. It can range from zero (no relationship) to one (a perfect relationship). The squared correlation coefficient measures the proportion of variation in one variable that is explained by the other variable.</p>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/11/Abramowitz-Table1.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone  wp-image-94867" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/11/Abramowitz-Table1.png" alt="Table 1 . Correlations Between Won–Lost Percentage and Payroll, 1996–2005" width="448" height="453" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/11/Abramowitz-Table1.png 852w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/11/Abramowitz-Table1-297x300.png 297w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/11/Abramowitz-Table1-80x80.png 80w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/11/Abramowitz-Table1-768x777.png 768w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/11/Abramowitz-Table1-36x36.png 36w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/11/Abramowitz-Table1-697x705.png 697w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 448px) 100vw, 448px" /></a></p>
<p>The results in Table 1 show that the strength of the relationship between team payrolls and won-lost percentages varied considerably over these ten years. In some years the relationship was fairly strong while in other years it was quite weak. On average, however, the relationship between team payrolls and won-lost percentages was fairly modest—spending explained an average of only 26.3% of the variation in success on the playing field over these 10 seasons.</p>
<p>Despite the growing disparity in the size of team payrolls between 1996 and 2005, there is no evidence here that the impact of spending increased over time. In fact, the average correlation between team payrolls and won-lost percentages was somewhat larger during the first half of this time period than during the second half: the proportion of variation in team success explained by spending declined from an average of 32.5% between 1996 and 2000 to an average of only 20.1% between 2001 and 2005.</p>
<p>These correlations actually overstate the influence of spending on won-lost records. That is because the correlation between spending and success reflects the influence of success on spending as well as the influence of spending on success. Teams that enjoy success on the playing field tend to increase their payrolls the next season because of increased revenues and increased salary demands from players. To control for the influence of success on payrolls, I calculated partial correlations between team payrolls and won- lost percentages while controlling for the previous season’s won-lost percentages. As expected, these partial correlations were considerably smaller than the original correlation coefficients. They ranged from -.038 to .603. The average partial correlation between payroll and won-lost percentage, controlling for last season’s won-lost percentage, was a very modest .203.</p>
<p>The general conclusion that can be drawn from these data is that team payrolls have only a limited influence on what happens on the playing field. Further evidence for this proposition can be seen by comparing actual team performance with what would be expected based solely on the size of team payrolls. Along these lines, Table 2 displays the difference between actual and expected wins per season for every major league team between 1996 and 2005.</p>
<p>The results in Table 2 show that over these 10 seasons, some teams consistently exceeded what would be expected based on their payrolls while other teams consistently fell short of what would be expected. The most successful teams in baseball during this period were the Oakland A’s and Atlanta Braves. The A’s won an average of 12.6 more games than expected per season based on their payroll while the Braves won an average of 10.3 more games than expected per season. At the other end of the spectrum, the least successful teams in baseball during this period were the Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The Tigers won an average of 11.3 fewer games than expected per season based on their payroll while the Devil Rays won an average of 10.0 fewer games than expected per season.</p>
<p>These results demonstrate that while money matters in baseball, it matters considerably less than many people assume. A team’s success on the playing field depends as much on leadership, organization, and baseball knowledge as it does on the size of its payroll. </p>
<div>
<h5> </h5>
<h5 style="text-align: left;">Table 2. Difference Between Actual and Expected Wins per Season, 1996–2005</h5>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 593px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;"><strong>Team</strong></td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;"><strong>Difference</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Oakland A&#8217;s</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">+ 12.6</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Atlanta Braves</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">+ 10.3</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Houston Astros</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">+ 7.4</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">San Francisco Giants</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">+ 6.3</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Chicago White Sox</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">+ 5.8</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 26px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 26px;">Minnesota Twins</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 26px;">+ 4.9</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 35px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 35px;">New York Yankees</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 35px;">+ 3.3</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Cleveland Indians</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">+ 3.0</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Seattle Mariners</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">+ 2.2</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Los Angeles Angels</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">+ 1.9</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Boston Red Sox</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">+ 1.7</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Washington Nationals</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">+ 1.6</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Florida Marlins</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">+ 1.6</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">San Diego Padres</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">+ 0.6</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Cincinnati Reds</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">&#8211; 0.8</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Los Angeles Dodgers</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">&#8211; 1.0</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Toronto Blue Jays</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">&#8211; 1.0</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Arizona Diamondbacks</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">&#8211; 1.8</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Philadelphia Phillies</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">&#8211; 2.0</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Pittsburgh Pirates</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">&#8211; 2.1</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Milwaukee Brewers</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">&#8211; 3.8</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">New York Mets</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">&#8211; 4.0</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Chicago Cubs</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">&#8211; 5.1</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Texas Rangers</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">&#8211; 5.2</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Colorado Rockies</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">-6.2</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Kansas City Royals</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">&#8211; 7.0</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Baltimore Orioles</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">&#8211; 8.3</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Tampa Bay Devil Rays</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">&#8211; 10.0</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">Detroit Tigers</td>
<td style="width: 50%; height: 19px;">&#8211; 11.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><em><strong>ALAN I. ABRAMOWITZ</strong> is an Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University.</em></p>
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		<title>All Saves Are Not Created Equal</title>
		<link>https://sabr.org/journal/article/all-saves-are-not-created-equal/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[admin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Nov 2006 00:33:32 +0000</pubDate>
				<guid isPermaLink="false">https://sabr.org/?post_type=journal_articles&#038;p=94308</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[When the Fireman of the Year award was created in 1960, the term “fireman” had already been in use for more than 20 years, referring to a relief pitcher who entered the game to stop a rally. The connotation was that some emergency existed, requiring the rescue of one pitcher by another. It didn’t matter what [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">When the Fireman of the Year award was created in 1960, the term “fireman” had already been in use for more than 20 years, referring to a relief pitcher who entered the game to stop a rally. The connotation was that some emergency existed, requiring the rescue of one pitcher by another. It didn’t matter what inning it was; with a small lead and runners on base, the manager would bring in his best reliever to put out the fire.</span></p>
<p>After saves became an official statistic in 1969, a generation of relievers built their reputations as firemen who doused rallies as early as the sixth inning and pitched the rest of the way to record saves. More recently, a new breed of relief ace has emerged, one of many specialized bullpen roles. These save-gatherers are spared the hazardous duty of putting out fires in the seventh or even the eighth inning. Instead, their sole assignment is to saunter in at the start of the ninth inning, with a lead of three runs or less, and record the final three outs. They are called“closers” (“fireman” has become obsolete), a business term for the person who irons out the final details of a deal after others have done the legwork. In essence, the game is already won when the closer enters; it is only a matter of what the final score will be.</p>
<p>On the rare occasions when a closer is brought in with no save possible, announcers feel compelled to account for the aberration. Most likely he hasn’t pitched in a few days and needs the work. Some closers have admitted to pitching poorly with a four-run lead because they aren’t sufficiently motivated. It’s as if the manager gears his game strategy toward providing his closer with the chance to accumulate a lot of saves, compared to the earlier generations when the manager identified his best reliever and sought to get as many innings as possible from him, with victories and saves the by-product of quality work. For instance, when Mike Marshall set the record in 1974 with 208.1 innings pitched in relief, 93 of those innings came when he entered with his team losing or tied, and he became the winning pitcher in 15 of those 47 appearances.</p>
<div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Table 1. Career Save and Blown Save Totals</strong></p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p><strong>Player</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p><strong>G in Relief</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p><strong>SV Opps</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p><strong>SV</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p><strong>BS</strong></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>Fingers</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>907</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>479</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>341</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>110</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>Gossage</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>965</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>463</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>310</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>112</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>Sutter</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>661</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>412</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>300</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>101</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>L. Smith</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>1016</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>616</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>478</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>103</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>Eckersley</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>710</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>484</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>390</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>71</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>Hoffman</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>821</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>556</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>482</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>56</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>Rivera</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>720</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>501</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>413</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>55</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p><strong>TOTALS</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>5800</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>3511</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>2714</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 20%;">
<p>608</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Dennis Eckersley has said that “you can’t blame a pitcher for the way a manager uses him.” That is true, but we <i>can </i>assess the relative difficulty of their assigned tasks and their relative success in similar situations. Thanks to a wealth of data supplied by Dave Smith of Retrosheet, I’ve conducted numerous studies of seven relievers most prominently mentioned in debates about electing relievers to the Hall of Fame. Three are already enshrined: two firemen (Rollie Fingers and Bruce Sutter) and one closer (Eckersley). Two others were the top vote-getters among relievers on the 2007 ballot who were not elected: Rich Gossage and Lee Smith. The final two are the active pitchers regarded as the most likely to make the Hall of Fame someday: Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Table 2. Innings Pitched in Saves</strong></p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p><strong>Players</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p><strong>1/3</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p><strong>2/3</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p><strong>1</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p><strong>1 1/3</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p><strong>1 2/3</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p><strong>2</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p><strong>2 1/3</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p><strong>2 2/3</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p><strong>3+</strong></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>Fingers</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>39</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>20</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>81</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>30</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>36</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>61</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>20</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>18</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>36</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>Gossage</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>24</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>23</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>70</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>33</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>35</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>73</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>16</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>12</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>24</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>Sutter</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>18</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>12</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>82</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>25</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>33</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>84</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>21</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>10</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>15</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>L. Smith</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>26</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>23</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>260</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>46</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>29</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>79</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>8</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>Eckersley</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>25</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>28</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>231</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>44</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>34</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>23</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>1</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>Hoffman</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>26</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>12</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>389</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>39</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>0</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>Rivera</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>16</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>11</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>299</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>49</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>27</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>10</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>0</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p><strong>TOTALS</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>174</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>129</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>1412</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>266</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>203</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>335</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>66</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>45</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%;">
<p>84</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>As a group, these seven standouts provide a vivid cross-section of the evolution from firemen to closers during the “saves era”. </p>
<p>Did the elite relievers of the 1970s work that much harder than today’s elite, and do they deserve more respect for doing so? A reliever’s workload—his contribution to the team’s winning effort—is easily measured in innings pitched. One argument in favor of enshrining Bruce Sutter was that even though he ranks just 18th in career saves, he worked harder for his saves, often pitching two or three innings to do so. So in Table 2 I tallied exactly how many outs were recorded in every one of these pitchers’ saves.</p>
<p>The numbers tell us quite a bit. Sutter pitched at least two innings in 43.3% of his career saves, more than any of the others. Gossage and Fingers weren’t far behind, and Fingers pitched at least three innings in more than 10% of his saves. It is impossible to pick any member of this trio over the other two in terms of how hard they worked for saves.</p>
<p>Contrast their innings with those pitched by Eckersley, Rivera, and Hoffman. The great majority of their saves involved pitching one inning or less, with few appearances earlier than the ninth inning. Consider this: from May 27 through July 4, 1984 (39 days), Sutterhad more saves (nine) where he pitched at least two innings than Hoffman has in his whole career. Gossage did the same thing from August 15, 1980, through the end of that season, and Fingers accomplished it in a 53-day stretch in 1978. The earlier pitchers acted as their own setup men. These firemen put out the  fire and cleaned up after themselves.</p>
<p>Rivera’s work in postseason play proves that he is quite capable of shouldering a heavier burden. Manager Joe Torre has not hesitated to bring him in early. In 27 of his 34 post-season saves (79.4%), Rivera has entered in the eighth inning. A dozen times (35.3%), he has worked two full innings for a save. Throw in a career ERA of 0.81 in the postseason, and it’s no wonder that he is considered a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame.</p>
<p>The change from multiple-inning to one-inning closers is seen most dramatically in the career of Lee Smith. From 1981 to 1990, he carried a load similar to the earlier trio. From 1991 through the end of his career, he was used much the same way that Hoffman has been. The statistical breakdown reflects the shifting trend. From 1981 to 1990, 44.2% of Smith’s saves lasted one inning or less, a little more than Fingers &amp; Co.; from 1991 on, that figure is a whopping 90.1%. His saves of 2+ innings went from 34% all the way down to 1.9%. Smith recorded his top four seasonal totals for saves after 1990, thanks to his managers lightening his workload as he grew older.</p>
<p>The biggest difference between the “old-style” firemen and the current crop of closers is the number of times they enter the game to start the ninth (or extra) inning, with no runners on base, the easiest situation for a reliever to face even with just a one-run lead.</p>
<p>Figures supplied by Tom Ruane of Retrosheet indicate that if the home team starts the ninth inning with a one-run lead, it will win roughly 85% of the time. Put the leadoff runner on first, and the percentage drops to 75%, the same likelihood as having runners on first and second with nobody out and a two-run lead, or the bases loaded and nobody out with a three-run lead.</p>
<p>Start the ninth inning with a two-run lead, and you’ll win about 93% of the time; with a three-run lead, it jumps to a 97% win rate. Current managers love to put in their big-time closer with that three-run lead in the ninth inning because victory is a near-sure thing, but it would be a near-sure thing no matter who pitched the final inning.</p>
<p>Trevor Hoffman has been used in this situation 124 times in his career, compared to 11 for Fingers, 14 for Gossage, and 16 for Sutter. When Fingers recorded three outs for a save, he started the ninth inning only 65.4% of the time; Gossage got to start the ninth in 72.9% of his three-out saves. That is, about a third of the time they got the call only when the previous pitchers put runners on base. In 1975, Gossage pitched in 62 games and only twice entered without runners on base. By contrast, Hoffman faced only one inherited runner the entire 2006 season (recording the easiest save imaginable, retiring one batter with a runner on first base and a three-run lead).</p>
<div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Table 3. Performance When Entering to Start the Ninth Inning</strong></p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 171px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p><strong>Player</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p><strong>One-Run SV/BS</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p><strong>Two-Run SV/BS</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p><strong>Three-Run SV/BS</strong></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>Fingers</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>25/12</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>17/2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>11/0</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>Gossage</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>21/6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>17/2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>13/1</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>Sutter</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>28/10</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>22/4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>16/0</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>L. Smith</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>96/30</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>87/9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>61/0</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>Eckersley</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>78/22</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>78/8</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>65/1</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>Hoffman</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>139/26</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>121/9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>117/7</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>Rivera</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>94/20</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>102/3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>94/2</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>TOTALS</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>481/126</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>444/37</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<p>377/11</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Table 3 breaks down the performance according to the size of the lead. As a group, the seven relievers have gotten the save 97.2% of the time with a three-run lead and 92.3% of the time with a two-run lead, very close to Tom Ruane’s figures. The most striking thing is the high percentage of the time that the modern closers start the ninth inning, especially with more than a one-run lead.</p>
<p>Fingers and Gossage enjoyed this relatively carefree entrance in only one-sixth of their saves. It happened a little more often for Sutter, but still only 22% of the time. For Smith, it was 27.2% in the first part of his career, but 78.9% in the second part. Hoffman has had it very easy by this standard, with more than three-fourths of his career saves (78.2%).</p>
<p>Dan Quisenberry, the unjustly overlooked relief ace of the 1980s Kansas City Royals, advocated measuring saves by “degree of difficulty.” I have attempted to do just that in my studies, examining the various “save situations” in which a reliever enters the game. First, I looked at the most difficult jam, with not only the tying run(s) on base but the (potential) winning run as well.</p>
<h5> </h5>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Table 4. Performance When Entering with the Winning Run on Base</strong></p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 171px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<div><strong>WROB</strong></div>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<div><strong>SV</strong></div>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<div><strong>BS</strong></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Fingers</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">50</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">24</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">25</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Gossage</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">45</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">22</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">21</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Sutter</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">26</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">11</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">15</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">L. Smith</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">27</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">14</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">13</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Eckersley</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">15</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">7</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">8</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Hoffman</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">17</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">11</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">5</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Rivera</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">10</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">3</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">7</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;"><strong>TOTALS</strong></td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">190</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">92</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">94</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The finding that jumps off Table 4 is that even the best relievers blow the save in this situation more often than not. Hoffman has done the best and Rivera the worst, though the more significant point is that their opportunities are so few compared to Fingers and the earlier relievers. Give Rivera as many appearances as Fingers with the winning run on base and, using his “success” rate, we’d be adding 28 blown saves to his career total. Conversely, putting Fingers in that spot as seldom as Rivera has faced it would lop off 20 blown saves from his total. This doesn’t even take into consideration what inning it is or how many outs there are.</p>
<p>The folks at Rolaids, who hand out the annual award for relief pitching, have tallied “tough” saves since 2000, defined as having the tying run on base when the reliever enters. In the past seven seasons, Rivera has more “tough” saves than any other reliever, 20, which happens to be only one more than John Hiller had just in 1973. The saves in Table 4 are “tough” by this definition. Here’s the data from entries with the tying run(s) on base but not the go-ahead run.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Table 5. Performance When Entering with Tying Run(s) On Base</strong></p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 171px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<div><strong>TROB</strong></div>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<div><strong>SV</strong></div>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<div><strong>BS</strong></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Fingers</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">118</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">77</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">35</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Gossage</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">102</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">59</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">36</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Sutter</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">80</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">47</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">31</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">L. Smith</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">59</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">37</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">20</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Eckersley</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">42</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">28</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">11</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Hoffman</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">36</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">25</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">8</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Rivera</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">41</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">26</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">13</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;"><strong>TOTALS</strong></td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">478</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">299</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">154</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>As in the previous table, Fingers has as many of these dangerous outings as Rivera, Hoffman, and Eckersley put together. As a group, these seven stalwarts recorded the save less than twice as often as they blew it, a measure of the difficulty of handling inherited runners. Taking these two tables together, the career “tough” saves add up to: Fingers 101, Gossage 81, Sutter 58, Smith 51, Eckersley 35, Hoffman 36, and Rivera 29. For Fingers and Gossage, more than half of their career blown saves came in these spots, and in nearly half of those blown saves, they entered the game in the sixth or seventh inning. For Rivera and Hoffman, most of their blown “tough” saves come in the eighth inning, virtually the only time they enter with inherited runners.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Table 6. Performance When Entering With Tying Run at Bat</strong></p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 171px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<div><strong>TRAB</strong></div>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<div><strong>SV</strong></div>
</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">
<div><strong>BS</strong></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Fingers</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">175</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">126</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">37</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Gossage</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">174</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">116</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">42</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Sutter</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">161</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">117</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">41</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">L. Smith</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">259</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">189</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">54</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Eckersley</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">168</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">128</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">37</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Hoffman</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">188</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">158</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">27</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Rivera</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">164</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">129</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">26</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;"><strong>TOTALS</strong></td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">1289</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">963</td>
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">264</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>This data is, on the surface, more comparable, since all seven relievers faced this situation roughly the same percentage of the time, 36–39% of their save opportunities for the earlier guys and 32–35% for the later group, with Lee Smith at 42%. The career figures for Fingers and Eckersley are almost identical, as are those for Sutter and Gossage. Hoffman and Rivera have significantly higher ratios of saves to blown saves when facing the tying run at the plate, but a breakdown of the situations reveals why.</p>
<p>For Fingers, Gossage, and Sutter, more than two-thirds of their blown saves came when they entered no later than the eighth inning, meaning they not only had to get out of their first jam, they also pitched multiple innings and therefore had extra chances to blow the lead. Of Hoffman’s 27 blown saves in this category, only one came when he entered before the ninth inning; similarly, for Rivera it was only five out of 26. For them, this situation usually occurs when they enter to start the ninth inning with a one-run lead.</p>
<p>Add up the evidence and it’s clear that all saves are not created equal. Some save “opportunities” are gift-wrapped while others are booby-trapped. A whopping 59.8% of Hoffman’s career saves have come when he entered the game with no more peril than having the tying run in the on-deck circle. It’s even higher for Rivera at 61.7%. The percentage goes down as we look further back: Eckersley 58.2%, Smith 49.8%, Sutter 41.7%, Gossage 36.5%, and Fingers 33.4%. Compare the stats of the seven studs for these “easy saves” compared to the“tough saves” in which the tying run is on base.</p>
<div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Table 7. Tough Saves vs. Easy Saves</strong></p>
</div>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 162px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 10px;"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td style="width: 21.7828418230563%; height: 10px;">
<div><strong>Tough</strong></p>
<div><strong>SV/BS</strong></div>
</div>
</td>
<td style="width: 19.772117962466485%; height: 10px;">
<p><strong>Tough Ratio</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 19.336461126005364%; height: 10px;"><strong>Easy</strong></p>
<div><strong>SV/BS</strong></div>
</td>
<td style="width: 14.10857908847185%;"><strong>Easy Ratio</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Fingers</td>
<td style="width: 21.7828418230563%; height: 19px;">101/60</td>
<td style="width: 19.772117962466485%; height: 19px;">1.68</td>
<td style="width: 19.336461126005364%; height: 19px;">114/13</td>
<td style="width: 14.10857908847185%;">8.8</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Gossage</td>
<td style="width: 21.7828418230563%; height: 19px;">81/57</td>
<td style="width: 19.772117962466485%; height: 19px;">1.42</td>
<td style="width: 19.336461126005364%; height: 19px;">113/13</td>
<td style="width: 14.10857908847185%;">8.7</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Sutter</td>
<td style="width: 21.7828418230563%; height: 19px;">58/46</td>
<td style="width: 19.772117962466485%; height: 19px;">1.26</td>
<td style="width: 19.336461126005364%; height: 19px;">125/14</td>
<td style="width: 14.10857908847185%;">8.9</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">L. Smith</td>
<td style="width: 21.7828418230563%; height: 19px;">51/33</td>
<td style="width: 19.772117962466485%; height: 19px;">1.55</td>
<td style="width: 19.336461126005364%; height: 19px;">238/16</td>
<td style="width: 14.10857908847185%;">14.9</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Eckersley</td>
<td style="width: 21.7828418230563%; height: 19px;">35/19</td>
<td style="width: 19.772117962466485%; height: 19px;">1.84</td>
<td style="width: 19.336461126005364%; height: 19px;">227/15</td>
<td style="width: 14.10857908847185%;">15.1</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Hoffman</td>
<td style="width: 21.7828418230563%; height: 19px;">36/13</td>
<td style="width: 19.772117962466485%; height: 19px;">2.77</td>
<td style="width: 19.336461126005364%; height: 19px;">288/16</td>
<td style="width: 14.10857908847185%;">18.0</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;">Rivera</td>
<td style="width: 21.7828418230563%; height: 19px;">29/20</td>
<td style="width: 19.772117962466485%; height: 19px;">1.45</td>
<td style="width: 19.336461126005364%; height: 19px;">255/9</td>
<td style="width: 14.10857908847185%;">28.3</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 25%; height: 19px;"><strong>TOTALS</strong></td>
<td style="width: 21.7828418230563%; height: 19px;">391/248</td>
<td style="width: 19.772117962466485%; height: 19px;">1.58</td>
<td style="width: 19.336461126005364%; height: 19px;">1360/96</td>
<td style="width: 14.10857908847185%;">14.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Fingers, with almost as many tough saves as easy saves, had a better success rate in those dangerous situations than Rivera, the most revered of current closers. Gossage’s success rate was virtually the same. Why is Hoffman’s ratio of tough saves to blown tough saves so much higher? Of the 102 career saves he has recorded in which he inherited runners, 65 came when he entered with two outs, and 26 of those were in the ninth inning. Only two of Hoffman’s 482 saves saw him enter before the eighth inning, compared to 75 for Fingers.</p>
<p>This perspective suggests the difficulty of devising a unifying formula to evaluate all save performances in  their  situational  context.  Such a formula must take into account the immediate danger when the pitcher enters, where the runners are, how many outs, the size of the lead, how far he is from the end of the game, and run support. For instance, the fire is blazing when you enter in the seventh inning, but your team gives you a six-run cushion for the last two innings. How much easier is your save than the one where you have to nurse a one-run lead after the seventh inning, and how much tougher than facing the winning run when you enter in the ninth inning?</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>I believe it’s possible to devise a formula which will satisfy Dan Quisenberry’s wish for a “degree of difficulty” for saves, and which can be calculated by any fan watching the game. Until that time, Table 8 contains a final look at how our seven elites measure up in the separate parameters when entering the game.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Table 8. Performance In Game-entering Parameters</strong></p>
<div>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 14.194221030682156%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 9.1003872505213%;">
<p><strong>Fingers</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.038725052129877%;">
<p><strong>Gossage</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%;">
<p><strong>Sutter</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.857908847184987%;" width="53">
<p><strong>L.Smith</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 12.064343163538874%;" width="63">
<p><strong>Eckersley</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 11.394101876675604%;" width="57">
<p><strong>Hoffman</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.455764075067025%;" width="53">
<p><strong>Rivera</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.991957104557642%;" width="51">
<p><strong>TOTALS</strong></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 14.194221030682156%;" width="65">
<p>1-run lead</p>
<p>2-run lead</p>
<p>3-run lead</p>
<p>4+-run lead</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.1003872505213%;">
<p>117-77</p>
<p>114-23</p>
<p>80-6</p>
<p>30-4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.038725052129877%;">
<p>116-69</p>
<p>101-34</p>
<p>67-7</p>
<p>26-2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%;">
<p>97-71</p>
<p>103-23</p>
<p>84-6</p>
<p>16-1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.857908847184987%;">
<p>162-76</p>
<p>169-20</p>
<p>120-7</p>
<p>27-0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 12.064343163538874%;">
<p>120-43</p>
<p>130-21</p>
<p>109-5</p>
<p>31-2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 11.394101876675604%;">
<p>167-34</p>
<p>136-15</p>
<p>141-7</p>
<p>38-0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.455764075067025%;">
<p>127-37</p>
<p>132-13</p>
<p>120-2</p>
<p>34-3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.991957104557642%;">
<p>906-407</p>
<p>885-149</p>
<p>721-40</p>
<p>202-12</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 14.194221030682156%;" width="65">
<p>0 runners</p>
<p>1 runners</p>
<p>2 runners</p>
<p>3 runners</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.1003872505213%;">
<p>138-38</p>
<p>88-28</p>
<p>104-39</p>
<p>11-5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.038725052129877%;">
<p>128-38</p>
<p>96-35</p>
<p>69-29</p>
<p>17-10</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%;">
<p>152-45</p>
<p>79-28</p>
<p>59-27</p>
<p>10-1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.857908847184987%;">
<p>320-64</p>
<p>83-19</p>
<p>67-17</p>
<p>8-3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 12.064343163538874%;">
<p>265-43</p>
<p>68-12</p>
<p>48-12</p>
<p>9-4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 11.394101876675604%;">
<p>380-43</p>
<p>31-3</p>
<p>59-8</p>
<p>12-2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.455764075067025%;">
<p>314-28</p>
<p>46-13</p>
<p>43-12</p>
<p>10-2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.991957104557642%;">
<p>1697-299</p>
<p>491-138</p>
<p>449-144</p>
<p>77-27</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 14.194221030682156%;" width="65">
<p>0 outs</p>
<p>1 out</p>
<p>2 outs</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.1003872505213%;">
<p>171-59</p>
<p>79-27</p>
<p>91-24</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.038725052129877%;">
<p>160-58</p>
<p>73-40</p>
<p>77-14</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%;">
<p>180-61</p>
<p>56-24</p>
<p>64-16</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.857908847184987%;">
<p>347-74</p>
<p>53-14</p>
<p>78-15</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 12.064343163538874%;">
<p>257-42</p>
<p>62-16</p>
<p>71-13</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 11.394101876675604%;">
<p>394-47</p>
<p>22-4</p>
<p>66-6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.455764075067025%;">
<p>309-34</p>
<p>38-10</p>
<p>66-11</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.991957104557642%;">
<p>1818-374</p>
<p>383-135</p>
<p>513-99</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 14.194221030682156%;" width="65">
<p>6th or 7th</p>
<p>8th</p>
<p>9th</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 9.1003872505213%;">
<p>75-50</p>
<p>125-27</p>
<p>141-33</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.038725052129877%;">
<p>52-36</p>
<p>142-56</p>
<p>112-23</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%;">
<p>46-22</p>
<p>142-56</p>
<p>112-23</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.857908847184987%;">
<p>15-12</p>
<p>153-48</p>
<p>310-43</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 12.064343163538874%;">
<p>5-4</p>
<p>101-30</p>
<p>284-37</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 11.394101876675604%;">
<p>2-2</p>
<p>53-10</p>
<p>427-44</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.455764075067025%;">
<p>1-3</p>
<p>87-23</p>
<p>325-29</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10.991957104557642%;">
<p>196-129</p>
<p>790-231</p>
<p>1728-248</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><em><strong>GABRIEL SCHECHTER</strong> has been a research associate at the National Baseball Hall of Fame’s library since 2002, and is the author of three baseball books.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Fenway Park’s Hand-Operated Scoreboard</title>
		<link>https://sabr.org/journal/article/fenway-parks-hand-operated-scoreboard/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[admin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Nov 2006 00:18:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<guid isPermaLink="false">https://sabr.org/?post_type=journal_articles&#038;p=94306</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[On the evening of August 15, 2006, Nate Moulter and Mike Gavin arrived for work at Boston’s Fenway Park and started their evening by making a list of that day’s major league games with the uniform numbers of the starting pitchers. Then they turned to the main task of their job — posting information on [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On the evening of August 15, 2006, Nate Moulter and Mike Gavin arrived for work at Boston’s Fenway Park and started their evening by making a list of that day’s major league games with the uniform numbers of the starting pitchers. Then they turned to the main task of their job — posting information on the hand-operated scoreboard at Fenway Park. Nate and Mike are two of a three-man staff who work in the scoreboard during games. The 16-year veteran of the squad, Chris Elias, was away on business that night, but the board was ably manned by Mike, in his second year, and Nate, in his first season on the squad.</p>
<p>The left-field wall is one of the most recognizable features in any ballpark and has been a part of Fenway Park since it opened on April20, 1912. The original wall was a 37-foot-tall wooden structure, but that was replaced by a sheet metal wall in 1934 as part of renovations made by the new Red Sox owner, Tom Yawkey. A 23½-foot screen was built on the top of the wall in 1936 to prevent home run balls from damaging buildings across Lansdowne Street, which runs behind the wall. Commercial advertisements covered the wall as late as 1946, but they were painted over before the 1947 season by the distinctive green paint, which has led many people to refer to the wall in the last few decades as the Green Monster.</p>
<p>When the park was built in 1912, hand-operated scoreboards were the norm. Fenway Park, the oldest ballpark in the majors, still operates as it did in 1912, with a person posting numbers on the board as the game progresses. Now there are new fields that feature retro-effects, such as hand-operated scoreboards. Among these parks are Minute Maid Park in Houston and Coors Field in Denver. Chicago’s Wrigley Field, the oldest park in the National League, has a hand-operated scoreboard that was built in 1937, 23 years after it opened.</p>
<p>The Fenway scoreboard had sections for various purposes in the 1950s. In addition to an inning-by-inning section for the Sox game, there were sections showing the current score in all other major league games in progress. The National League section of the board was removed as part of a 1975 renovation, during which time the board was moved farther away from the left-field line toward left-center field. As part of that renovation, the sheet metal surface of the entire wall, which had been damaged by hundreds of baseballs striking it in four decades of use, was replaced.</p>
<p>The 1976 covering is still in place on the wall in 2006, with its own collection of dents from baseballs. In July 2002, commercial signs were added atop the wall, and before the 2003 season major changes were made. Those included removal of the screen and replacing it with a new section of seating called the “Monster Seats.” Those 274 tickets on the wall typically are the most sought after in Boston during the summer and provide a great view of the action and an occasional souvenir. Changes to the scoreboard in 2003 included the addition of a National League section, addition of the AL East division standings, and increased signage at either end of the scoreboard. Almost the entire 231-foot width of the wall is now covered with signs and the scoreboard.</p>
<p>Another feature on the scoreboard are the Morse Code initials of Tom Yawkey (TAY: dash, dot-dash, dash-dot-dash-dash) and his wife, Jean (JRY: dot-dash-dash-dash, dot-dash-dot, dash- dot-dash-dash). These vertical stripes appear just to the right of the Sox game section on the board.</p>
<p>Behind the scoreboard is a small room that runs most of the length of the scoreboard. This is the “office” of Chris, Mike, and Nate, three guys with second jobs that many people in New England would love to have. This room has a concrete wall along the back with beams that run out toward the back of the metal scoreboard.</p>
<p>The concrete wall is covered with names of people who have come into the room through the years. Players, team officials, and others have memorialized their visit to this little room by writing their name somewhere on the concrete. Before the game this night, Nate pointed out the names of Wade Boggs, Trot Nixon, and model Leeann Tweeden to a visitor. Also on the wall are the names of Yankees GM Brian Cashman and Rockies Vice President of Communications, Jay Alves, among others. During batting practice, Magglio Ordonez of the Tigers visits the room with his son, Magglio, Jr. The younger Ordonez writes his name onto the concrete as his dad watches. The Tigers training staff also toured the small area behind the scoreboard, looking at names on the wall.</p>
<p>From this room the operators place metal number panels into slots for the Red Sox contest and the American League games. Since their room does not run as far toward the center-field end of the wall as the scoreboard, the National League scores must be put up from the front of the board. One of the workers runs out onto the warning track between innings with a ladder and places the numbers in the appropriate place on the scoreboard. Inside, there is a wooden step up to a small concrete wall just behind the scoreboard. Standing on the concrete, one can reach up to the slots to place numbers for each inning as the Sox game progresses.</p>
<p>The number panels used to indicate runs and hits are 16 by 16 inches and weigh three pounds each. The panels used for the pitcher’s numbers, innings, and errors are 12 by 16 inches and weigh two pounds. Each panel has a different number front and reverse; they are consecutive, such as 2 and 3. There are small slits into which the numbers are inserted from behind the board.</p>
<p>The slots for the number panels are similar to taking an inbox from a desk and placing it vertically against the scoreboard. Some of these are loaded from the top and some from the bottom. Each time the score changes in the Red Sox game, one team collects a hit or is charged with an error, one of the operators pulls the appropriate number out of its position on the board and either flips and reinserts it or takes a new number panel off the back wall and inserts that into the board. While an inning is in progress, the number of runs scored (greater than zero) are represented for that inning with a yellow digit, which is replaced with a white number at the end of the inning.</p>
<p>As the Red Sox game progresses through the first three innings, Mike watches an Internet site from a laptop computer for updates on scores from other big league games in progress. Occasionally, he yells out an American League score. Then one of the operators grabs a number panel off the back wall and moves to the correct slot in the scoreboard and updates that game’s score and inning.</p>
<p>Once the eight o’clock hour passes, many more games start and must be monitored. This means that there is more activity in the room as runs are scored in the Central Time Zone as well as Eastern. The current board display is kept on a notepad for comparison with the Internet scoreboard. The operators talk in their own code for out-of-town game scores. For each of those contests, there are two numbers for the pitchers, one for the inning and two more for the runs scored by the teams. When the score changes, someone might call out “3–0–1” for a game, meaning third inning with the home team ahead 1–0.</p>
<p>Keeping track of the Red Sox game requires looking through one of about eight slots in the scoreboard. These holes are approximately ten inches wide and one inch tall. From here, the operators can see the progress of the game as if standing in left field with Manny Ramirez. However, the view is restricted by the size of the slot; high fly balls can disappear from view and watching the fielder gives a better idea of what is going on. There is also a window in the wall between the words “Ball” and “Strike” that is used often by a television camera person. This vantage point offers a unique look as it is perfectly lined up with the baseline between first and second bases. Thus, one gets a great angle on a double play, in which the view is behind the throw to first base.</p>
<p>Fly balls that strike the metal  scoreboard reverberate loudly in the room behind the wall. There is no running water, and therefore no toilet, thus left fielders who disappear into the room during a pitching change are not going in to relieve themselves, contrary to public belief. There is also no heat or air conditioning in the room, and it can get very warm during the hottest part of the summer as the sun beats off the metal facing of the scoreboard and heats the air in the room. No breeze relieves that heat as there is no possibility of cross-ventilation and little space in the wall for the breeze to enter. However, the board operators know that the temperature and lack of facilities is a small price to pay to work one of the coolest jobs in Boston.</p>
<p>Carlton Fisk hit one of the most famous homers ever at Fenway Park in Game Six of the 1975 World Series. As the ball flew down the left-field line, Fisk stood near home plate applying body English and waving with his hands, willing the ball to be fair as it reached the wall, and then leaped into the air when it hit the pole for a game-ending home run. This scene was captured accidentally by the television cameraman stationed in the scoreboard, as he had been instructed to follow the path of the ball but did not pay attention to that instruction since he was watching a rat at his feet, and kept the camera trained on Fisk and his gyrations, thus providing one of the most famous moments in World Series history.</p>
<p>In June 2006, board operator Nate Moulter’s face looking out the camera window appeared on ESPN and other television outlets. During a three-game series with the Washington Nationals, Alfonso Soriano, Washington’s left fielder and leading home run hitter, spent a few minutes during a pitching change talking with Nate at the window while leaning on the scoreboard. As Soriano started to leave, he said something and laughed, then swatted Nate with his glove and returned to his defensive position. Many left fielders have ducked into the room behind the wall during games.</p>
<p>According to Moulter, Manny Ramirez used to come in frequently but has stopped doing that. Moulter figures that someone told Ramirez to stop the visits. One time in 2005, Ramirez went in and then did not get back on the field when the teams were ready to resume the game. Ramirez came out with a big smile on his face, and that could have led to the cessation of his visits.</p>
<p>The next time you visit Fenway Park, take a look at the scoreboard and watch the changes in the display as the game progresses. Maybe you can help others understand how that information area is updated.</p>
<p><em><strong>DAVID VINCENT</strong> added his name to the scoreboard wall during his evening as rookie board operator.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><em>Click image to enlarge:</em></p>
<p><a href="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/11/Vincent-David-Fenway-scoreboard.jpg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-94871" src="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/11/Vincent-David-Fenway-scoreboard.jpg" alt="David Vincent added his name to the Fenway Park scoreboard wall during his 2006 evening as a rookie board operator." width="612" height="792" srcset="https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/11/Vincent-David-Fenway-scoreboard.jpg 612w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/11/Vincent-David-Fenway-scoreboard-232x300.jpg 232w, https://sabrweb.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/11/Vincent-David-Fenway-scoreboard-545x705.jpg 545w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /></a></p>
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		<title>More Interesting Statistical Combinations</title>
		<link>https://sabr.org/journal/article/more-interesting-statistical-combinations/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[admin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Nov 2006 23:38:48 +0000</pubDate>
				<guid isPermaLink="false">https://sabr.org/?post_type=journal_articles&#038;p=94304</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[In Baseball Research Journal 33 Fred Worth presented an intriguing article titled “Interesting Statistical Combinations,” analyzing combinations like high batting average and low walks or lots of losses but a low ERA. He concluded the article, “Obviously there are many more comparisons that could be considered.” I took this as a challenge and investigated a number [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <i>Baseball Research Journal </i><em>33</em> Fred Worth presented an intriguing article titled “Interesting Statistical Combinations,” analyzing combinations like high batting average and low walks or lots of losses but a low ERA. He concluded the article, “Obviously there are many more comparisons that could be considered.” I took this as a challenge and investigated a number of other statistical combinations I consider interesting. All data is taken from Sean Lahman’s database (<a href="http://www.seanlahman.com">www.baseball1.com</a>) and includes results from the 2004 season.</p>
<p><strong>The Walking Men</strong></p>
<div>
<p>Inspired by Barry Bonds’ historic 2004 season, we’ll look at the individual seasons for which a player had more walks than hits (minimum 100 at-bats). The top of the list ordered by maximum difference of (walks minus hits) looks like this:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
</div>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 247px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;">
<div><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Player</strong></span></div>
</td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Year</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>AB</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>BB</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>H</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>BB-H</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Age</strong></span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Barry Bonds</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2004</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">373</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">232</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">135</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">97</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">40</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Barry Bonds</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2002</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">403</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">198</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">149</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">49</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">38</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jack Crooks</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1892</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">445</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">136</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">95</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">41</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">27</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jimmy Wynn</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1976</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">449</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">127</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">93</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">34</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">34</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Roy Cullenbine</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1947</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">464</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">137</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">104</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">33</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">34</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Eddie Yost</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1956</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">515</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">151</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">119</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">32</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">30</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Yank Robinson</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1890</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">306</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">101</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">70</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">31</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">31</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ferris Fain</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1955</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">258</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">94</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">67</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">27</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">34</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Wes Westrum</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1951</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">361</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">104</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">79</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">25</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">29</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>As expected, the list is headed by Barry Bonds, circa 2004. He had almost 100 more walks than hits, by far the highest margin in history. Next up is also Bonds with his impressive 2002 season, which at that point broke the MLB record for walks in a season. Of course, we’re looking here at results only, not discussing whether they were achieved in a natural way or not. The above list shows all seasons with a (walks/hits) differential of 20 or more. There are four pre-1900 seasons in there as well as three third-millenium entries, all by Bonds.</p>
<p>Note the absence of any entries for almost the entire first half of the 20th century. Roy Cullenbine’s 1947 season is the first in the 20th century. Also quite as expected is that most players on the list are veterans, the majority being in their thirties while gaining entry. The obvious exception is Willie McGill in 1891 at just 18 years old, his second year in the league. He is the only pitcher on the list.</p>
<p>Looking at totals, the following number of seasons is listed in which a player accumulated a positive differential (BBH), showing all players who achieved the feat at least twice: first season indicates the first season of more walks than hits for the player, not his debut season in the majors. We see two players with an impressive six seasons of more walks than hits, followed by five players with four seasons each, including modern sluggers Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, and Jack Clark.</p>
<p>Of course, Barry Bonds may climb up the ladder before his career is finished. Noteworthy is the relative absence of pre-1900 players on this list with only three entries, although this includes Yank Robinson with four seasons. Half of the players (14 out of 28) had their first(BB&gt;H) season after 1960.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Player</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong># Seasons</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>First Season</strong></span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Max Bishop</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1926</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Gene Tenace </span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1974</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jack Clark</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1987</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Yank Robinson</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1888</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Barry Bonds</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2001</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mark McGwire</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1994</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Eddie Yost</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1955</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Eddie Lake</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1943</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mickey Tettleton</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1990</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Eddie Joost</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1947</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Don Mincher</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1961</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jimmy Wynn</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1969</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Frank Fernandez</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1968</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Red Faber</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1920</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ken Phelps</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1986</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Lee Mazzilli</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1986</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jim French</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1969</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Marty Hopkins</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1934</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Aaron Robinson</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1950</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Merv Shea</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1935</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mickey Mantle</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1962</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jack Crooks</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1892</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Oscar Gamble</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1984</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Eddie Stanky</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1945</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Wes Westrum</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1951</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Charlie Bennett</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1890</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Roy Cullenbine</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1940</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Willie McCovey</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1973</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Primary Targets</strong></p>
<p>After looking at players with exceptionally high walk totals, let’s now look at another kind of feat involving walks: having been hit by pitches more than having walked in a season. What follows is a table of player seasons (100 at-bats minimum) achieving this with a differential of at least three: The list is dominated by players of the 1800s and the early years of the 20th century, led by Hughie Jennings in 1896 with a mind-blowing differential of 32 more HBP than walks. Of course, most seasons are ones with very low walk totals for the player in question. An exception is Hughie Jennings’ 1897 season with 42 walks but even more hit-by-pitches. Jennings makes the list three times. These guys sure had a painful way of making up for their meager walk totals!</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 228px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Player</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Year</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>AB</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>BB</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>HBP</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>HBP-BB</strong></span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Hughie Jennings</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1896</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">521</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">19</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">51</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">32</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Boileryard Clarke</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1898</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">285</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">15</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">11</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">John Reilly</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1884</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">448</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">14</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jay Faatz</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1888</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">470</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">12</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">21</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Art Fletcher</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1915</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">562</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">14</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Whitey Alperman</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1906</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">441</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">14</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Hughie Jennings</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1895</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">529</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">24</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">32</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Dan McGann</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1901</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">423</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">16</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">23</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Sal Fasano</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1998</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">216</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">10</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">16</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">John Warner</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1901</span></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">291</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Felix Escalona</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2002</span></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">157</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Whitey Alperman</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1909</span></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">420</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Hughie Jennings</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1897</span></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">439</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">42</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">46</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Finners Quinlan</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1915</span></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">114</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jay Faatz</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1884</span></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">112</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Shawon Dunston</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1999</span></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">243</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jack O&#8217;Neill</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1905</span></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">172</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">11</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ollie O&#8217;Mara</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1918</span></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">450</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">10</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mike Kinkade</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2003</span></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">162</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">13</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">16</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Vance Wilson</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2002</span></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">163</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Deacon Phillippe</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1900</span></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">105</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Barney Pelty</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1904</span></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">118</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Hit Spectrum Inversions</strong></p>
<p>Typically, the number of the different types of hits a player has in a season goes in the sequence singles-doubles-home runs-triples in descending order of frequency. Let’s call this the “hit spectrum.”  Of course, as is often the case for one-dimensional sluggers, the order of doubles and home runs may be inversed. Here, we’ll look at player seasons for which the order mentioned above doesn’t hold. We start with players having more home runs than singles in a season (50 at-bats minimum):</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 423px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 24px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Player</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Year</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>AB</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>H</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>1B</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>HR</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>HR-1B</strong></span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Barry Bonds</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2001</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">476</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">156</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">49</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">73</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">24</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mark McGwire</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1998</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">509</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">152</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">61</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">70</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mark McGwire</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1999</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">521</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">145</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">58</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">65</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mark McGwire</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2001</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">299</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">56</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">23</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">29</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mark McGwire</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1995</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">317</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">87</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">35</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">39</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Milt Pappas</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1962</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">69</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">J.R. Phillips</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1996</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">104</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">17</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ben Wade</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2004</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">60</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Roric Harrison</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1994</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">54</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Rob Deer</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1964</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">50</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Richie Sexson</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2004</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">90</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">21</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Greg Pirkl</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1994</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">53</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">14</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Dick Williams</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1964</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">69</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">11</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Shane Spencer</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1998</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">67</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">25</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">10</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jack Harshman</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1956</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">71</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">12</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Bobby Estalella</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2002</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">112</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">23</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Don Drysdal</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1958</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">66</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">15</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Neil Chrisley</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1959</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">106</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">14</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Once again, we have Barry Bonds heading the list. In 2001, on his way to breaking the single-season home run record, almost 47% of his hits were home runs while only 31% were singles. The differential (HR1B) of 24 is by far the biggest in history. Next up is Mark McGwire with four (!) seasons of his own with a differential of between four and nine. Obviously, all seasons are post-1950 with a predominance of the 1990s/2000s era. This indicates an increasing trend of all or nothing swings at the plate, at least for sluggers like McGwire.</p>
<p>But even then, hitting more home runs than singles is very hard to achieve over a full season. Bonds and McGwire are the only ones who did it in what amounts to the equivalent of at least half a season. Some list entries with low at-bat totals are pitcher seasons like Don Drysdale’s 1958 and Milt Pappas’ 1962 campaigns.</p>
<p>Another example of an anomalous hit spectrum is players who hit more triples than doubles. This happened about 750 times in MLB history (100 at-bats minimum). Following is a table of all player seasons with a differential (triples/doubles) of at least seven:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 0%; height: 708px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 24px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Player</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Year</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>AB</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>H</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>2B</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>3B</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>3B-2B</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>SB</strong></span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Harry Davis</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1897</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">429</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">131</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">10</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">28</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">18</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">21</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Chief Wilson</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1912</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">583</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">175</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">19</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">36</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">17</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">16</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Duff Cooley</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1895</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">563</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">191</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">20</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">11</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">27</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Bill Kuehne</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1885</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">411</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">93</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">19</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">10</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Hughie Jennings</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1899</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">224</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">67</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">12</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">18</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Heinie Reitz</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1894</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">446</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">135</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">22</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">31</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">18</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Deion Sanders</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1992</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">303</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">92</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">14</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">26</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Edd Roush</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1916</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">341</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">91</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">15</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">19</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Tommy Leach</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1902</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">514</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">143</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">14</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">22</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">25</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Dale Mitchell</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1949</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">640</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">203</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">16</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">23</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">10</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jake Daubert</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1922</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">610</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">205</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">15</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">22</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">14</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Les Mann</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1915</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">470</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">144</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">12</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">19</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">18</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Braggo Roth</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1915</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">384</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">103</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">10</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">17</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">26</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Joe Cassidy</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1904</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">581</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">140</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">12</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">19</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">17</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Dave Brian</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1903</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">464</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">107</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">15</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">21</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Perry Werden</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1893</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">500</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">138</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">22</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">29</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">11</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Scott Stratton</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1892</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">219</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">56</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Joe Visner</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1890</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">521</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">139</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">15</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">22</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">18</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Dick Johnston</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1887</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">507</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">131</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">13</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">20</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">52</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">John Kerins</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1885</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">456</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">111</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">16</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The list is dominated by seasons from the early stages of professional ball up to and including the Deadball Era. Deion Sanders’ 1992 season is the only one in the last half-century. Noticeable is the rather high number of at-bats, i.e., these players achieved the feat of tripling more often than doubling typically in a full season’s worth of plate appearances.</p>
<p>I suspect a number of reasons being responsible for the predominance of the Deadball Era on this list, including bigger parks, worse field conditions than today, smaller fielder’s gloves, and various others. Possibly one would expect players with more triples than doubles to be very fast and therefore to also steal a lot of bases, too.</p>
<p>However, as the number of stolen bases is also displayed in the table, this seems not to be the case. SB totals are moderate for most player seasons, Dick Johnston’s 1887 campaign with 52 SB being the exception. The two entries with zero stolen bases (Kuehne and Kerins) are due to the fact that no stolen base records were kept for the league at that time.</p>
<p>Looking at total seasons with more triples than doubles for each player (not shown as a table), we have Sam Crawford and Tommy Leach with five seasons each and Bill Kuehne, George Van Haltren, Silver King, John Hummel, and Adonis Terry with four each as well as 16 players with three each. Therefore, hitting more triples than doubles in a season is not a total fluke but, at least to some extent, a persistent skill of a few dozen players, mainly from the 19th century.</p>
<p>So far, we’ve looked at a reverse differential of hit types two positions apart in the hit spectrum 1B–2B–HR–3B, i.e., more home runs than singles (positions 3 and 1) and more triples than doubles (positions 4 and 2). Of course, reverse differentials for adjacent positions, e.g., more home runs than doubles, are typically more common than for greater positional differences.</p>
<p>So what has yet to be considered is the only possible reverse differential of three positions, i.e., hitting more triples than singles. This never happened in 100+ at-bats, but it happened once in MLB history in 50+ at-bats. In 1991, pitcher Charlie Leibrandt posted this line:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 48px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 24px;">
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 24px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Year</span></strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 24px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 12pt;">AB</span></strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 24px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 12pt;">H</span></strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 24px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1B</span></strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 24px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3B</span></strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 24px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3B-1B</span></strong></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 24px;">
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1991</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">70</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 16.666666666666668%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Of course, this is just a fluctuation because of the extremely small numbers involved (no singles, one triple). So basically hitting more triples than singles in any meaningful number of at-bats has never happened so far. If we lower our minimum requirement for at-bats even more (to 25 AB minimum), we have two players who hit at least two more triples than singles in a season. Obviously, these small numbers of at-bats render the accomplishments statistically completely meaningless; there’s no persistent capability involved.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Player</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Year</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>AB</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>H</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>1B</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>3B</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>3B-1B</strong></span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ron Fairly</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1960</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">37</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mike O&#8217;Neill</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1907</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">29</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Before leaving the topic of hit spectrums, we will look at totals for relationships between the different types of hits. In the analyzed data set, there are 32,661 player seasons with at least 100 at-bats. The following table shows for the six possible combinations of hit types (single vs. double, single vs. triple, double vs. home run) and the three possible relationships (hit type 1 greater than hit type 2, . . . smaller than . . . , . . . equal to) the counts and percentages of the total 32,661 seasons (see Table X1).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><strong>Table 1. Counts and Percentages</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">           Relationship</p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Hit 1</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Hit 2</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>&gt;</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>=</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>&lt;</strong></span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1B</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2B</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">32653     99.98%</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4     0.01%</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4     0.01%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1B</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3B</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">32661     100.00%</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0     0.00%</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0     0.00%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1B</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">HR</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">32652     99.97%</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1     0.00%</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8     0.02%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2B</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3B</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">31251     95.68%</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">659     2.02%</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">751     2.30%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2B</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">HR</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">28722     87.94%</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">926     2.84%</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3013     9.23%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3B</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">HR</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">12033     36.84%</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3569     10.93%</span></td>
<td style="width: 20%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">17058     52.23%</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Table [X1] tells us, in addition to the eight seasons of more home runs than doubles and the fact that a season with more triples than singles never happened, several interesting facts. First of all, a reverse differential between positions 1 and 2 in the hit spectrum (singles vs. doubles) is very rare; it happened only four times in history. Another four times the totals for the two types of hits matched exactly:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Player</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Year</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>AB</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>H</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>1B</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>2B</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>2B-1B</strong></span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">John Kroner</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1938</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">117</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">29</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">12</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">16</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Adam Piatt</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2003</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">132</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">30</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">11</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">13</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Bobby Estalella</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2002</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">112</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">23</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Bill Duggleby</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1905</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">101</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">11</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">J.R. Phillips</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1996</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">104</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">17</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Brian Hunter</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1998</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">112</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">23</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Lefty Grove</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1933</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">105</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Joe Bush</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1925</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">102</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">26</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">12</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">12</span></td>
<td style="width: 14.285714285714286%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Besides four seasons from the last ten years we have another four seasons from the first half of the 20th century. All seasons have relatively low at-bats totals, just making the cut of 100 at-bats. The results shown above regarding the counts/fractions of the hit spectrum relationships also indicate that the sequence triples/home runs is quite often reversed: more than one in three seasons is finished with more triples than home runs. However, this number drops to 22% if we consider only seasons after 1920, i.e., in the Lively ball era. </p>
<p>And now to something completely different.</p>
<div>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Masters of the Three True Outcomes</strong></p>
<p>The Three True Outcomes (TTO) are usually defined as the three results from a batter’s plate appearance which are (almost) solely in the responsibility of the pitcher: the walk, strikeout, and home run. Sometimes players whose plate appearances often result in one of the TTO are referred to as Three True Outcome Players, e.g., second baseman Mark Bellhorn in Boston’s 2004 championship season.</p>
<p>These types of players are considered valuable in a performance analysis, sabermetrics point of view, e.g., the Moneyball approach. Traditional scouting and evaluation often rate these players rather lower because of typically high strikeout totals. Table 3 shows the top TTO percentages in history (100 at-bats mini- mum). Column TTO is the sum of columns BB, SO, and HR. TTO percentage is TTO divided by the sum of at-bats plus walks (ignoring HBP, sac flies, and sac hits).</p>
<p>The list is headed by a few players with over 60% of their plate appearances resulting in one of the three true outcomes. Up front is a pitcher, Vida Blue, without a home run. He’s solely on the list because of his impressive strikeout total (63 in 102 at-bats). The players on this list with a number of plate appearances equivalent to at least half a season are Mark McGwire in 1998, 2000 and 2001, Jack Clark in 1987, and Dave Nicholson in 1964.</p>
<div>
<p align="center"> </p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><strong>Table 3. All-time Top TTO Percentages (min. 100 AB)</strong></p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 600px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Player</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Year</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>AB</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>BB</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>SO</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>HR</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>TTO</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>TTP Percentage</strong></span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Vida Blue</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1971</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">102</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">63</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">67</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.632</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Dave Nicholson</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1960</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">113</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">20</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">55</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">80</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.602</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">J.R. Phillips</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1996</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">104</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">11</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">51</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">69</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.600</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 60px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 60px;" width="24">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mark McGwire</span></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 60px;" width="53">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2000</span></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 60px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">236</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 60px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">76</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 60px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">78</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 60px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">32</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 60px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">186</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 60px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.596</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mark McGwire</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1998</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">509</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">162</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">155</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">70</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">387</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.577</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Dave McNally</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1970</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">105</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">15</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">53</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">69</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.575</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mark McGwire</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2001</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">299</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">56</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">118</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">29</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">203</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.572</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Billy Ashley</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1996</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">110</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">21</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">44</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">74</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.565</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Dave Duncan</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1967</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">101</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">50</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">59</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.562</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 48px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Dave Nicholson</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1962</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">173</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">27</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">76</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">112</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.560</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 48px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jack Clark</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1987</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">419</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">136</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">139</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">35</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">310</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.559</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 48px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Bob Purkey</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1962</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">107</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">56</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">62</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.559</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 48px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Russ Branyan</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2004</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">158</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">20</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">68</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">11</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">99</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.556</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 48px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Dave Nicholson</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1964</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">294</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">52</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">126</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">13</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">191</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.552</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 48px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Earl Moseley</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1914</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">109</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">57</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">64</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 48px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.552</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 24px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Rob Deer</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1985</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">162</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">23</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">71</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">102</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.551</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Again, almost all seasons in the table are from the second half of the last century. When these guys are at bat, there’s not much to do for the fielders most of the time! Of course, we’re not so much interested in players who are on the list solely because of their high strikeout totals, like Vida Blue in 1971 or Dave McNally in 1970, but in players who also achieve significant totals in the other legs of TTO, walks and especially home runs. Table 4 gives the top TTO percentages for player seasons with at least 20 home runs.</p>
<p>Here we have the usual suspects: modern sluggers like Bonds, McGwire, and Jim Thome as well as strikeout kings like Rob Deer. Mark McGwire has six seasons of at least a 50% TTO percentage.</p>
<p>The other end of the Three True Outcome spectrum are players who rarely walk or strike out and have little power. For these, the opposite defenders are involved in most of their at- bats. As expected, this was most often the case in the 19th century. In the list of lowest TTO percentages in history over at least 100 at-bats, the first modern entry (post 1900) is at position 166, Doc Powers in 1905. Restricting ourselves to the post-1900 era, Table 5 contains the top of the list.</p>
<p>Please note the extremely low TTO percentages here. These are guys that had absolutely no power, very rarely walked, and almost never struck out. When they were at bat, a good defense behind him was surely the pitcher’s best friend (besides the double play). But even in the last few decades, there have been players with very low TTO percentages, as Table 6 shows, which has only seasons after 1970.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Table 4. Top TTO Percentages for Player Seasons with at least 20 Home Runs</strong></p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 836px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Player</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Year</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>AB</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>BB</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>SO</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>HR</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>TTO</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>TTO%</strong></span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mark McGwire</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2000</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">236</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">76</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">78</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">32</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">186</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.596</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mark McGwire</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1998</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">509</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">162</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">155</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">70</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">387</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.577</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mark McGwire</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2001</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">299</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">56</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">118</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">29</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">203</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.572</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jack Clark</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1987</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">419</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">136</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">139</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">35</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">310</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.559</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Melvin Nieves</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1997</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">359</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">39</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">157</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">20</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">216</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.543</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jim Thome</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2001</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">526</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">111</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">185</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">49</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">345</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.542</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Dave Kingman</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1973</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">305</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">141</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">122</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">24</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">187</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.540</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Russ Branyan</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2001</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">315</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">38</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">132</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">20</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">190</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.538</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Rob Deer</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1991</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">448</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">89</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">175</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">25</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">289</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.538</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Rob Deer</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1987</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">474</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">86</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">186</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">28</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">300</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.536</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jim Thome</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1999</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">494</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">127</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">171</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">33</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">331</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.533</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ray Lankford</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2000</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">392</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">70</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">148</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">26</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">244</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.528</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Rob Deer</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1986</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">466</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">72</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">179</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">33</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">284</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.528</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Russ Branyan</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2002</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">378</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">51</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">151</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">24</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">226</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.527</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Barry Bonds</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2004</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">373</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">232</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">41</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">45</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">318</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.526</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Barry Bonds</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2001</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">476</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">177</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">93</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">73</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">343</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.525</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jim Thome</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2002</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">480</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">122</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">139</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">52</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">313</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.520</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mark McGwire</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1996</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">423</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">116</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">112</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">52</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">280</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.519</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mark McGwire</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1999</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">521</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">133</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">141</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">65</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">339</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.518</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Fred McGriff</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1987</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">295</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">60</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">104</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">20</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">184</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.518</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Adam Dunn</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2004</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">568</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">108</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">195</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">46</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">349</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.516</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jack Clark</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1989</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">455</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">132</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">145</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">26</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">303</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.516</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Dave Nicholson</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1963</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">449</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">63</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">175</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">22</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">260</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;" width="35">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.508</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jay Buhner</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1997</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">540</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">119</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">175</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">40</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">334</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;" width="35">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.507</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mark McGwire</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1995</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">317</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">88</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">77</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">39</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">204</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;" width="35">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.504</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jimmy Wynn</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1969</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">495</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">148</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">142</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">33</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">323</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;" width="35">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.502</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 12.5%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jack Clark</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1990</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">334</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">104</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">91</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">25</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">220</span></td>
<td style="width: 12.5%;" width="35">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.502</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Table 5. Lowest TTO Percentages, Post-1900</strong></p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 304px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Player</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Year</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>AB</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>H</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>BB</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>SO</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>HR</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>TTO</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>TTO%</strong></span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Doc Powers</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1905</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">154</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">24</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.025</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Sport McAllister</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1902</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">240</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">49</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.028</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Emil Verban</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1949</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">343</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">99</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">10</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.028</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Tommy Thevenow</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1933</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">253</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">79</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.031</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Woody Jensen</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1938</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">125</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">25</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.032</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Johnny Sain</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1948</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">115</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">25</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.034</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Johnny Sain</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1947</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">107</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">37</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.036</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Stuffy McInnis</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1924</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">581</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">169</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">15</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">22</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.037</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Stuffy McInnis</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1922</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">537</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">164</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">15</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">21</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.038</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Walter Schmidt</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1922</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">152</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">50</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.031</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div>
<p align="center"> </p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><strong>Table X6. Lowest TTO Percentages, Post-1970</strong></p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 209px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Player</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Year</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>AB</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>H</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>BB</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>SO</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>HR</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>TTO</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>TTO%</strong></span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Felix Fermin</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1995</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">200</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">39</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">12</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.058</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Bob Bailor</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1984</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">131</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">36</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.065</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Bob Bailor</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1985</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">118</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">29</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.066</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Larry Milbourne</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1978</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">234</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">53</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">17</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.070</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jesus Alou</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1974</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">220</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">59</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">16</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.071</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jeff Torborg</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1971</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">123</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">25</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.071</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jesus Alou</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1971</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">433</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">121</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">13</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">32</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.072</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Lenny Harris</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1999</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">187</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">58</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">14</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.073</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mario Guerrero</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1976</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">268</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">76</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">12</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">20</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.073</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Tim Foli</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1983</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">330</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">83</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">18</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">25</span></td>
<td style="width: 11.11111111111111%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.075</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Three True Outcome Pitchers</strong></p>
<p>So far we’ve looked at the Three True Outcomes for batters. But of course, this is also an interesting statistic to analyze for pitchers. I include hit-by-pitch as one of the true outcomes for pitchers because it’s also solely in the control of the  pitchers (never mind that now we should correctly call it four true outcomes). We define pitchers’ TTO as:</p>
<p><em>(BB+HBP+SO+HR)/(BB+HBP+HR+Outs) </em></p>
<p>Outs is innings pitched times three. Table 7 is a list of highest TTO percentages for pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched in a season.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Table 7. Top TTO Percentages for Pitchers (min. 50 IP/Season)</strong></p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 323px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Player</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Year</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>IP</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>H</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>BB</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>HBP</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>SO</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>HR</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>TTO</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>TTO%</strong></span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">ByungHyun Kim</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2000</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">70.2</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">52</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">46</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">111</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">175</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.634</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Armando Benitez</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1999</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">78.0</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">40</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">41</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">128</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">173</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.620</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">John Rocker</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2000</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">53.0</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">42</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">48</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">77</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">132</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.617</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Brad Lidge</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2004</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">94.2</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">57</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">30</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">157</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">201</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.613</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Matt Mantei</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1999</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">65.1</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">44</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">44</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">99</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">153</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.612</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Billy Wagner</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1997</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">66.1</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">49</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">30</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">106</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">144</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.608</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Billy Wagner</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1998</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">60.0</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">46</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">25</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">97</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">128</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.607</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Billy Wagner</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1999</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">74.2</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">35</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">23</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">124</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">153</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.605</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Eric Gagne</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2003</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">82.1</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">37</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">20</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">137</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">162</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.596</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Rob Dibble</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1992</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">70.1</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">48</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">31</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">110</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">146</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.591</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Bryan Harvey </span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1989</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">55.0</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">36</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">41</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">78</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">125</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.590</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Armando Benitez</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1997</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">73.1</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">49</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">43</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">106</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">157</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.579</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>This list, which  shows all TTO percentages above .570, exclusively comprises modern relief pitchers, especially closers. There are only two entries more than 10 years old, Bryan Harvey in 1989 and Rob Dibble in 1992, and even those are not really from ancient baseball times. Note that for the top TTO guys, more than 60% of their batters faced result in one of the Three True Outcomes, including the hit-by-pitch.</p>
<p>If we elevate our minimum requirement for innings pitched to 150, eliminating modern relievers, we arrive at the list of top TTO percentages for starting pitchers. Now, this should be called the Randy Johnson memorial list; the Big Unit has eight of the top 13 TTO percentages in history among starting pitchers. Kerry Wood makes the list three times, including the top spot in 1998, his rookie year. Johnson also has the highest total on the list for one of the Three True Outcomes in 2001 with 372 strikeouts (one of the highest SO totals in history), 85 walks, 11 hit-by-pitches and 14 home runs for a sum of 480.</p>
<p>However, even these numbers pale in comparison to Nolan Ryan’s 1974 season with 367 SO, 202 BB, 9 HBP, and 18 HR for a total of 596. Ryan also has totals of 570 and 566 in 1973 and 1977, respectively. Pitchers with a high TTO percentage don’t depend heavily on the defenses behind them because the defense often isn’t involved in the result from a batter’s plate appearance. On the other end of the spectrum there are pitchers with very low TTO percentages who rely heavily on their defenses. In the post-1900 era, the table on the next page shows the lowest TTO percentages with at least 50 innings pitched:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 323px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Player</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Year</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>IP</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>H</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>BB</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>HBP</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>SO</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>HR</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>TTO</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>TTO%</strong></span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Kerry Wood</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1998</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;" width="44">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">166.2</span></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">117</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">85</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">11</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">233</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">14</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">343</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.562</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Randy Johnson</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2001</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">249.2</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">181</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">71</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">18</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">372</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">19</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">480</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.560</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Randy Johnson</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1997</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">213.0</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">147</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">77</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">10</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">291</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">20</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">398</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.534</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Randy Johnson</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2000</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">248.2</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">202</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">76</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">347</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">23</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">452</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.531</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;">
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Bobby Witt</span></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1986</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">157.2</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">130</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">143</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">174</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">18</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">338</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.531</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Pedro Martinez</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1999</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">213.1</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">160</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">37</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">313</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">368</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.529</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Kerry Wood</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2003</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">211.0</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">152</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">100</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">21</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">266</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">24</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">411</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.528</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Randy Johnson</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1998</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">244.1</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">203</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">86</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">14</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">329</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">23</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">452</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.528</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Kerry Wood</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2001</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">174.1</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">127</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">92</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">10</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">217</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">16</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">335</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.523</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Randy Johnson</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1991</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">201.1</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">151</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">152</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">12</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">228</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">15</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">407</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.520</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Randy Johnson</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1995</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">214.1</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">159</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">65</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">6</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">294</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">12</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">377</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.519</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Randy Johnson</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1992</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">210.1</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">154</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">144</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">18</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">241</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">13</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">416</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.516</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Randy Johnson</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1999</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">271.2</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">207</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">70</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">364</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">30</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">473</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.512</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 304px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Player</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Year</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>IP</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>H</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>BB</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>HBP</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>SO</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>HR</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>TTO</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>TTO%</strong></span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Slim Sallee</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1919</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">227.2</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">221</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">20</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">24</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">49</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.069</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Eppa Rixey</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1933</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">94.1</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">118</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">12</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">10</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">23</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.078</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Bob Harmon</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1918</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">82.1</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">76</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">12</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">22</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.084</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Slim Sallee</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1920</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">133.0</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">145</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">16</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">15</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">37</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.088</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Benny Frey</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1933</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">132.0</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">144</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">21</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">12</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">37</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.088</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 38px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Nick Altrock</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1908</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">136.0</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">127</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">18</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">21</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">43</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 38px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.100</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Eppa Rixey</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1932</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">111.2</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">108</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">16</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">14</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">37</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.103</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Red Lucas</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1933</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">219.2</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">248</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">18</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">40</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">13</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">73</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.105</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Arnie Stone</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1924</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">64.0</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">57</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">15</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">22</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.106</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Huck Betts</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1932</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">221.2</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">229</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">35</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">32</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">76</span></td>
<td style="width: 10%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.107</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>All entries are from the first 35 years of the 20th century. We see several pitchers whose batters’ plate appearances result in one of the Three True Outcomes in less than 10% of the cases, i.e., the defense is involved in more than 90% of the plate appearances.This obviously puts a huge emphasis on the fielders’ capabilities.</p>
<p>In addition, following Voros McCracken’s insight that pitchers have little or no control over batting average on balls in play, one may conclude that any success these types of pitchers have is largely thanks to the fielders behind them. From the data presented above it seems that Three True Outcomes percentages have risen throughout MLB history. To analyze this in some detail, Table 8 shows the average TTO percentage for pitchers weighted with innings pitched and broken down per decade.</p>
<div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Table 8. Average TTO Percentage for Pitchers by Decade, Weighted with IP</strong></p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 285px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Decade</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Total IP</strong></span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>TTO%</strong></span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1876–1880</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">22,352.0</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.1209</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1881–1890</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">168,591.2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.2139</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1891–1900</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">139,357.0</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.2041</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1901–1910</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">202,594.2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.2210</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1911–1920</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">223,708.0</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.2280</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1921–1930</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">207,473.0</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.2116</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1931–1940</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;" width="67"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">206,552.2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.2354</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1941–1950</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">206,353.0</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.2494</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1951–1960</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">205,979.1</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.2850</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1961–1970</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">279,079.2</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.3176</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1971–1980</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">334,712.1</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.2937</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1981–1990</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">331,941.1</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.3089</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">1991–2000</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">343,098.0</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.3438</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 19px;">
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">2001–2004</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">148,752.0</span></td>
<td style="width: 33.333333333333336%; height: 19px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">0.3522</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>This table tells us several interesting facts. First of all, average TTO percentages started out very low in the 1870s but quickly rose to a level of about 21.23% and stayed there for over 50 years. In the middle of the 20th century they started to rise again and established a new level of about 30% for the 1960s through 1980. From the 1990s on, we have another hike up to about 35%, which still holds on.</p>
<p>Reasons for this may probably be found in the increasing trend of almost all players swinging for the fences today, leading to higher strike out totals as well as an increased importance of walks as a tactical weapon for batters as taught by several teams today (as part of the often falsely abbreviated Moneyball approach). Please note that innings-pitched totals per decade reflect the expansions (starting in 1961) as well as the brief existence of the Federal League in the 1910s.</p>
<p><em><strong>PETER UELKES</strong> got a Ph.D. in particle physics from the University of Technology at Aachen, Germany. He is currently working as a senior project manager for the Vodafone group. A SABR member since 2001, this is his second publication in the BRJ.</em></p>
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