SABR

Dewan: How meaningful are the first 10 games?

From SABR member John Dewan at ACTA Sports on April 17, 2012:

It’s rather remarkable that such a small sample size can show a trend, but sure enough, based on the last ten years of data, the first ten games of the season do just that.  Since 2002, 44 teams have started the season with 3 or fewer wins in their first ten games.  Only 4 of them (9%) have gone on to win 90 games for the year.  On the flip side, 46 teams have started the season with 7 or more wins and 21 of them (46%) have gone on to win 90.

Nevertheless, there are exceptions and last season had more than its fair share.  Three of the four instances in the last ten years where a team wound up with 90 wins despite a horrible start occurred last year.  Both the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays started the season at with a 2-8 record, and both went on to win 90+ games.  The Tigers started 3-7 and wound up with 95 wins.  Of the five teams that started with 3 or fewer wins in their first 10 games, three of them went on to win 90 or more.

Among the fast starters, only two of the teams that started with 7 or more wins in their first 10 went on to win 90 or more.

Read the full article here: http://www.statoftheweek.com

This page was last updated April 17, 2012 at 2:30 pm MST.

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