Appendix 1: Probabilities of Victory in Head-to-Head Team Matchups

This appendix accompanies the article “Probabilities of Victory in Head-to-Head Team Matchups” written by John A. Richards and published in the Fall 2014 Baseball Research Journal.

This appendix accompanies the article “Probabilities of Victory in Head-to-Head Team Matchups” written by John A. Richards and published in the Fall 2014 Baseball Research Journal.

It presents empirical win probabilities for head-to-head matchups in the seven major league eras defined in that article, as calculated from the full set of decisive games in each era. The format of these tables is exactly the same as that of Table 2 in the full article.

Click the images below to enlarge.

Table 10: Empirical win probabilities in the pre-modern era (1871-1900)

 

Table 11: Empirical win probabilities in the dead-ball era (1901-1919)

 

Table 12: Empirical win probabilities in the live-ball era (1920-1946)

 

Table 13: Empirical win probabilities in the integration era (1947-1960)

 

Table 14: Empirical win probabilities in the expansion era (1961-1976)

 

Table 15: Empirical win probabilities in the free-agency era (1977-1996)

 

Table 16: Empirical win probabilities in the interleague era (1997-2013)