Is There a Home Field Advantage in the World Series?

This year, for the first time in the history of Major League Baseball, the home field advantage in the World Series will be based on the outcome of the midseason All-Star Game. In an effort to make the All-Star Game more meaningful and overcome the negative fallout from last season’s tie game, Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig decided that starting this year, the representative of the league that wins the All-Star Game will get to play games one and two and, if necessary, games six and seven of the World Series in its home stadium, giving it a presumed advantage.

This new policy has stirred considerable debate among baseball commentators, fans, and players. In most other professional sports, the team with the better regular season record is awarded home-field advantage in the post-season. Since the advent of divisional play in 1969, baseball too has followed this practice during the American and National League playoffs. However, home field advantage in the World Series has continued to alternate each year between the National League representative and the American League representative.

Some critics of the new policy feel that it is inappropriate to give one of the World Series teams an advantage based on the outcome of what is essentially an exhibition game. But before considering the appropriateness of deciding the home field advantage based on the results of the All-Star Game, a prior question must be addressed: Is there really a home field advantage in the World Series? Does the team that plays games one and two and, if necessary, games six and seven on its home field really have an advantage over its opponent?

The answer to this question is not obvious. After all, the team that opens the Series at home only plays more games on its home field if the Series goes the full seven games. In a four- or six-game series, the two teams play an equal number of games on their home field. In a five-game series, the team that begins play on the road actually ends up playing more home games than the team that begins play at home.

A total of 76 World Series have been played under the current 2-3-2 home-away-home format that was adopted in 1924. (Because of travel restrictions during World War II, the 2-3-2 format was not used for the 1943 or 1945 Series and no World Series was played in 1994.) Of the 445 games played in these Series, the home team has won 254, or 57%. However, of these 76 Series, 14 went only four games, 14 went five games, and 17 went six games. Only 31 Series went the full seven games. As a result, teams playing games one and two at home have played only 52% of all games on their home field.

Despite playing only slightly more than half of all games on their home field, however, teams playing the first two games at home have won 44 of the 76 World Series played under the 2-3-2 format, or 58%. So there does seem to be a significant advantage to starting the World Series at home. But why is this?

Among both critics and supporters of Selig’s decision, it has generally been assumed that the home field advantage in the World Series is based mainly on the fact that if the Series goes the full seven games, the team starting the series on its home field also gets to play game seven on its home field. Surprisingly, however, playing game seven at home is not a significant advantage in the World Series. Of the 31 Series that have gone the full seven games, the home team has won only 16 while losing 15 (52%). We have to look elsewhere in order to explain why teams that begin the World Series at home have won the Series 58% of the time.

It appears that the home field advantage in the World Series is due almost entirely to the momentum gained by playing the first two games of the Series at home. Teams beginning the World Series at home have won game one 47 of 76 times (62%) and game two 44 of 76 times (58%). Even after losing game one, the home team has come back to win 17 of 29 times (59%) in game two.

Altogether, the home team has swept the first two games 27 times, split the first two games 37 times, and been swept at home only 12 times. Not surprisingly, when the home team won the first two games, they went on to win the Series 20 out of 27 times (76%). Also not surprisingly, when the home team lost the first two games, they went on to lose the Series 9 out of 12 times (75%).

Even when the home team split the first two games, they went on to win the World Series 21 out of 37 times (57%). However, when a split occurred, it made a difference which game the home team won. Home teams that won game one but lost game two went on to win only 9 out of 20 Series (45%). In contrast, home teams that lost game one but won game two went on to win 12 out of 17 Series (71%). In fact, these teams were almost as successful as those that swept the first two games at home.

The conclusion that emerges from this analysis is that in the World Series, momentum matters. Winning the first two games at home, or even losing game one but winning game two, usually provides the home team with enough momentum to carry it to victory in the Series. So there is a significant advantage to beginning the World Series on your home field. Whether the All-Star game is an appropriate means of determining which team enjoys that advantage is another question.

ALAN I. ABRAMOWITZ is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University He received his BA from the University of Rochester in 1969 and his Ph.D. from Stanford University in 1976.