From Jason Collette at Baseball Prospectus on October 19, 2011:
BP: Your $1 purchase of Doug Fister may have been one of the best draft day buys given how huge he was down the stretch for the Tigers and fantasy owners. What was the process behind spending $1 on a pitcher coming off a season with a sub 5.0 K/9 and a 4+ ERA?
LS: Based on his track record, and at age 27, I thought he’d do roughly the same in 2011 as he had done in 2010. He spent some time on the DL in 2010, so I bumped up his IP from 170 to 190 in my projections and his wins from 6 to 8. I also projected a 4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 105 K’s. Based on my formula, that’s worth $7. Therefore, getting him for $1 was a good deal.
He actually pitched very well in Seattle, except for not getting wins. When he was traded to Detroit, I expected more wins, but I feared the ERA and WHIP would rise out of Safeco. I’m glad I never traded him, because I had excess starting pitching and would have considered moving him, among a few others.
Jeff Francoeur for $6 and Ellsbury for $29 were my two other really good buys.
BP: You have a reputation as a wheeler and dealer and that you are willing to trade at any point in the season, including five minutes after a draft. What was the best deal you made within the season, and what was the best deal you didn’t make either because you declined it or the other owner did?
LS: In terms of value received for value given up, my best deal was getting Frank Francisco for Nick Blackburn. For me, Francisco pitched 22 innings with a 2.82 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and seven saves. For Dean Peterson, Blackburn pitched 43 innings with a 5.65 ERA, 2.07 WHIP, and one win.
But I also like my trades of Mark Reynolds and Derrek Lee (on the DL at the time) for Feliz and J.P. Arencibia for Robert Andino and Brayan Pena. At the time, I was first in home runs by something like 25-30 and first in RBI’s by a ton. So by giving up Reynolds, Lee (who I thought might not even play again this year), and Arencibia, I was trading power I wouldn’t ever need for a closer, Feliz, and a chance at improving my batting average. Average was a close category where I could have gained or lost a few points, so getting rid of the horrendous averages of Reynolds and Arencibia was “addition by subtraction.”
As mentioned before, not trading Fister turned out to be a good move.
Read the full article here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15332
Originally published: October 19, 2011. Last Updated: October 19, 2011.