From SABR member Phil Birnbaum on May 25, 2017:
Pete Palmer has a new article on skill and luck in baseball, in which he crams a whole lot of results into five pages.
It’s called “Calculating Skill and Luck in Major League Baseball,” and appears in the new issue of SABR’s “Baseball Research Journal.” It’s downloadable only by SABR members at the moment, but will be made publicly available when the next issue comes out this fall.
For most of the results, Pete uses what I used to call the “Tango method,” which I should call the “Palmer method,” because I think Pete was actually the first to use it in the context of sabermetrics, in the 2005 book “Baseball Hacks.” (The mathematical method is very old; Wikipedia says it’s the “Bienaymé formula,” discovered in 1853. But its use in sabermetrics is recent, as far as I can tell.)
Read the full article here: http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2017/05/pete-palmer-on-luck-vs-skill.html
Originally published: May 25, 2017. Last Updated: May 25, 2017.