Blengino: Year-to-year predictability of pitcher ball-in-play data

From SABR member Tony Blengino at FanGraphs on November 19, 2015:

The introduction of batted-ball data, first to the clubs and then to the public, certainly has caused a revolution in player evaluation. While the entirety of HITf/x and now Statcast data isn’t likely to be available to the masses anytime soon, the portions that are, including fairly complete PITCHf/x data, have changed the way fans, analysts, club personnel, and, yes, even players look at the game.

As I have often written on these pages, this data needs to be placed into context to be fully understood. There are ongoing issues with data capture, and the simple fact that not all hard or softly hit baseballs are created equal adds levels of nuance that must be understood before meaningful conclusions can be drawn. Another concern expressed by many is the uncertain predictive value of the batted-ball data, particularly with regard to pitchers. Today, let’s take a look at how this data correlates from year to year, from the pitcher’s perspective.

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Originally published: November 19, 2015. Last Updated: November 19, 2015.