Deane: A 2019 baseball season forecast

From SABR member Bill Deane at WordPress on March 19, 2019:

This is my 48th year of fearlessly forecasting baseball’s pennant races. Like most prognosticators, my record is spotty at best. I had a good year in 2017, correctly picking five of the six division winners. Last year was more middling: I got three of the six, with my other three picks finishing second. I forecast the Dodgers to win it all; they made it to the World Series (but Dave Roberts’s habit of replacing his best pitchers with his worst pitchers sabotaged their chances). Overall, I picked 15 of the 30 teams in the correct position – nothing to get too excited about, but considerably better than the six expected by random chance. And my one detailed prediction was “The Yankees’ dynamic duo of Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, who combined for 111 homers last year, will have fewer than 80 this year.” They had 65.

So, I guess I’ve earned the right to try it again. Thus, following is how the 2019 pennant races figure to go, according to my crystal baseball.

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Originally published: March 21, 2019. Last Updated: March 21, 2019.