Dewan: Adrian Beltre and the 3,000-hit club

From SABR member John Dewan at ACTA Sports on August 3, 2017:

On Sunday, during the fourth inning of a 10-6 loss to the Baltimore Orioles, Adrian Beltre hit a double down the third-base line to become just the 31st player to reach 3,000 career hits. He is the only player from the Dominican Republic and the fifth player not born in the United States to reach such an amazing feat.

Bill James created a method called “The Favorite Toy” that estimates a player’s chance to both meet career milestones and to break records. It uses the number of additional seasons a player is likely to play, the level of performance he needs in each of those seasons to meet a given milestone, and the rate at which the player has been moving towards the milestone thus far.

At the beginning of this season, per the Bill James Handbook 2017, here were the players who were most likely to reach 3,000 hits.

Read the full article here:

Originally published: August 3, 2017. Last Updated: August 3, 2017.