Dewan: Can spring training statistics predict breakout power seasons?

From SABR member John Dewan at ACTA Sports on March 25, 2014:

Over the last 10 or so seasons, this has been the time of the year when we’ve listed a group of players we expect to see a power breakout in the upcoming regular season. That list is based on a study of players from 1996-2001 that saw players who saw an increase in their spring slugging percentage of at least 100 points over their career slugging percentages entering the season then increase their slugging percentage in the regular season relative to their previous career levels.


Based on our qualifications, 71.7 percent of players who enjoyed those spring power surges went on to increased power in the regular season. Moreover, a similar study of that trend on the team level showed similar results.

In recent seasons, we’ve started to see some feedback from independent studies suggesting that trend may no longer hold true. We were curious to investigate, so we ran the same study with the same qualifications on the data from the most recent five seasons, 2009-2013.

Read the full article here:

Originally published: March 25, 2014. Last Updated: March 25, 2014.