Dewan: How many more no-hitters will be thrown this year?

From SABR member John Dewan at ACTA Sports on May 29, 2014:

Last Sunday, Josh Beckett submitted the first no-hitter of the 2014 season as the Dodgers beat the Phillies 6-0. Beckett has had a difficult transition back to the National League. Last season, he had an ERA over 5.00 in eight starts and missed the rest of the season with a compressed nerve that required surgery. Early indications are that he has regained that old form now that he’s healthy. His no-hitter lowered his ERA this season to 2.43, ninth lowest in the NL among qualified starters.

If recent seasons are any indication, Beckett’s no-hitter may be the first of many this season. In 2011 and 2012, there were an incredible 10 no-hitters in baseball. Last year there were three, for a total of 13 in the last three years. However, just looking at recent seasons does not provide the best basis of comparison, especially since runs scored in baseball have been declining over the last half decade.

To estimate how many no-hitters we might see the rest of this season, let’s look at the 25 seasons most similar to 2014 in runs scored per team per game

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Originally published: May 29, 2014. Last Updated: May 29, 2014.