Dewan: How meaningful are the first 10 games?
From SABR member John Dewan at ACTA Sports on April 17, 2012:
It’s rather remarkable that such a small sample size can show a trend, but sure enough, based on the last ten years of data, the first ten games of the season do just that. Since 2002, 44 teams have started the season with 3 or fewer wins in their first ten games. Only 4 of them (9%) have gone on to win 90 games for the year. On the flip side, 46 teams have started the season with 7 or more wins and 21 of them (46%) have gone on to win 90.
Nevertheless, there are exceptions and last season had more than its fair share. Three of the four instances in the last ten years where a team wound up with 90 wins despite a horrible start occurred last year. Both the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays started the season at with a 2-8 record, and both went on to win 90+ games. The Tigers started 3-7 and wound up with 95 wins. Of the five teams that started with 3 or fewer wins in their first 10 games, three of them went on to win 90 or more.
Among the fast starters, only two of the teams that started with 7 or more wins in their first 10 went on to win 90 or more.
Read the full article here: http://www.statoftheweek.com
Originally published: April 17, 2012. Last Updated: April 17, 2012.