Dewan: Who are this year’s potential breakout players?

From SABR member John Dewan at ACTA Sports on April 3, 2012:

Spring Training statistics have been the subject of many debates in baseball circles. On one hand, teams are making roster decisions based on how players have performed this spring. On the other hand, hitters are working into shape and working on their swings while pitchers are building up strength and refining new pitches. Especially early in March, raw minor league prospects play as much as major league veterans, so the quality of competition is hardly consistent.

However, our past research has shown that in certain cases Spring Training stats can predict breakout seasons. We found that players who beat their career slugging percentage by more than 200 points in Spring Training have over a 60 percent chance at beating their career slugging percentage. The most recent example was Jose Bautista, who topped our 2010 list with a phenomenal spring and followed up with 97 homers over two seasons. Melky Cabrera and Alex Gordon were two names on last year’s list who had career years in 2011.

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Originally published: April 5, 2012. Last Updated: April 5, 2012.