Did the 2002 A’s Win More Games Than Their Stats Might Predict?

From Cyril Morong at Cybermetrics on November 4, 2011:

Did the 2002 A’s of “Moneyball” fame win more games than their stats might predict? Maybe. I plugged their OPS differential into the following equation for winning percentage:

Pct = .5 + 1.26*OPSDifferential

The A’s had an OPS of .771 while their pitchers allowed an OPS of .699. So their differential was .072. The equation predicts a pct of .591 or about 95.7 wins. They actually won 103. So they won about 7.3 more games than expected. The standard error of the regression that generated the above equation was 5.04, so the A’s were 1.44 standard deviations above their expectation. Not huge, but not small either.

They did have a 32-14 record in 1-run games for a pct. of .696. They had a .612 pct. in all other games. If they had that for all games, they would have won 99.16 games, alot closer to what their OPS differential predicts.

Read the full article here: http://cybermetric.blogspot.com/2011/11/did-2002-as-of-moneyball-fame-win-more.html

Originally published: November 9, 2011. Last Updated: November 9, 2011.

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