Dubuque: What PECOTA got wrong

From Patrick Dubuque at Baseball Prospectus on February 12, 2018:

You’re familiar with the Santayana quote, I’m sure: “Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” You know why it happens, though, right? Because learning from history sucks. You generally don’t sit down and critique your victories, unless you’re writing a reflective journal for the first year of a grad school teaching program. (And in that case, you’re probably not recounting many victories; teaching is hard.) No, when you’re right, the most you’re likely to do is pat yourself on the back for your wisdom and foresight, then move forward with the assurance that you’ll never make a mistake ever again.

So, despite the price it demands in time and pride, it’s a good time to look back on some of our misses. This year’s PECOTA projections are now out for subscribers, and we’ve had a week or so to digest its secrets: the teams it loves (the Rays, like always) and hates (the Orioles and Royals, like always, but also new fun teams, like the Angels!). The familiar arguments are already peeking out from the February soil. But as we prepare for a new season, it’s instructive to look at who PECOTA missed out on, and see if there are any patterns for what happened.

Read the full article here: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/37716/cold-takes-pecota-got-wrong/

Originally published: February 12, 2018. Last Updated: February 12, 2018.