Goldstein: Debut seasons are better than before

From Craig Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus on August 21, 2019:

If you’ve looked around the last few seasons and thought, “boy there sure are a lot of guys who come up and just mash in their debut season,” well, you’re not alone. The rate at which guys go from “minor leaguer” to “star” seems to be increasing, shifting the major leagues into a golden era of dynamic, young talent.

This phenomenon has been explored to some degree by our own Zach Crizer, but I wanted to approach this concept from a different angle. Crizer measured the quality of each player’s first 200 and 400 plate appearances. Instead, I’d like to look at the volume of players* who we might see as debuting “successfully,” with success set at the relatively low bar of 1 WARP.  Admittedly 1 WARP is not a high standard for a full-season performance, but the low bar is to make sure we can capture partial seasons as well

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Originally published: August 21, 2019. Last Updated: August 21, 2019.