Jaffe: What to expect on the Hall of Fame ballot over the next five years

From SABR member Jay Jaffe at SI.com on January 10, 2014:

On Wednesday, I wrapped up the 2014 Hall of Fame voting, and on Thursday I previewed the 2015 ballot. For the finale of this year’s JAWS series, I decided to try something I’ve never done before, taking a look at the next several years of voting. In doing so, I’ve kept in mind both which holdover candidates are clearly on the road to election and which ballot newcomers will likely cut the line and be elected right away, just as Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas did this year.

This is admittedly an exercise requiring a fair bit of imagination and speculation, though it is grounded in my research into the candidates and the history of the voting. Underlying it is my own rough spreadsheet simulation, in which I’ve attempted to apportion a similar number of votes across the top candidates from year to year while expecting candidates to follow patterns consistent with the modern history of BBWAA voting. 

In doing so, I have assumed that despite the best efforts of the organization to recommend changes to the process, the Hall of Fame will keep things as they are: 10 votes per ballot, 75 percent needed for election, a five percent minimum to avoid falling off the ballot, no paring of the voter rolls to remove some of the deadwood (except for this guy), and no clear direction on players connected to performance-enhancing drugs.

Read the full article here: http://mlb.si.com/2014/01/10/jaws-and-the-2014-hall-of-fame-ballot-what-to-expect-over-the-next-five-years/

Originally published: January 10, 2014. Last Updated: January 10, 2014.