Judge: Introducing PECOTA 2020

From Jonathan Judge at Baseball Prospectus on February 6, 2020:

PECOTA Week 2020 brings us a different PECOTA than what we’re used to. This is not merely a fresh coat of paint.

Let’s get the most conspicuous difference out of the way, which is a matter of presentation: This year, we are releasing the different parts of PECOTA in stages. We are releasing individual hitter and pitcher projections today, a cutting-edge new fantasy baseball product Friday, and PECOTA’s projected team standings on Monday.


There are also significant changes to PECOTA under the hood. Since PECOTA was created circa 2003 by Nate Silver, it has undergone various iterations. Those improvements have accelerated over the last few years, as older methods started to make less sense and newer approaches offered more opportunity. This year, we think the break is finally clear: PECOTA has a completely new engine, built from the ground up, to estimate player skill and project anticipated performance.

Read the full article here: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/56917/introducing-pecota-2020/

Originally published: February 7, 2020. Last Updated: February 7, 2020.