Mains: Glimmers of hope in Kansas City

From SABR member Rob Mains at Baseball Prospectus on November 14, 2018:

The baseball season is divided into two unequal halves: Before the All-Star break (in 2018, 59.4 percent of games played) and after (the other, duh, 40.6 percent). The two teams with the best record in the second half of 2018 were the 42-23 Athletics and the 41-24 Brewers as they sprinted into the postseason.

Research has shown that full-year statistics are more meaningful than first- or second-half numbers. But that doesn’t stop people from looking at players and teams that reversed course at the All-Star break. Sometimes it’s predictive. Sometimes it’s not. But it’s interesting.

One of the worst teams in 2018 was the PECOTA punching bag Royals. (Full disclosure: PECOTA projected the Royals to win 66 games, eight more than they actually did. So, yeah.) It was unquestionably a bad team. Our former editor-in-chief, Ben Lindbergh, tried to compose a winning team from the Royals and Orioles combined last summer, and came up wanting.

Read the full article here:

Originally published: November 14, 2018. Last Updated: November 14, 2018.