Miller: Scott Boras has baseball’s most accurate projection system

From Sam Miller at Baseball Prospectus on April 27, 2015:

On Sunday, Darren Rovell tweeted a handful of pages from the free agent binder that Scott Boras put together for a 25-year-old Alex Rodriguez. As most of us around here tend to be projections junkies, surely you’ll find this page particularly interesting.

Fascinating that Scott Boras had his own advanced projection system, three years before Nate Silver debuted PECOTA here at BP. More impressive, Boras’ system not only projects a few years into the future, but 16 years into the future. Most impressive of all: Look at those numbers! Why, Rodriguez would not only break the all-time home run record, but the doubles record, too! And RBIs. And runs. And be within range of the Hit King, too.

I figured I’d reverse engineer this projection system and see if I could figure out what it was based on.

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Originally published: April 27, 2015. Last Updated: April 27, 2015.