Neyer: Danny Goodwin and the risks of the draft pick

From SABR member Rob Neyer at The National Pastime Museum on June 2, 2017:

Rany Jazayerli conducted a comprehensive study and found that once you get past the very first pick, the draft becomes essentially a crapshoot. And especially once you’re past the first 10 or so picks.

Except here’s the thing: Even those overall No. 1 picks are crapshoots. They’re just not quite as crapshooty, if only because every once in a while an Alex Rodriguez or Ken Griffey Jr. or Bryce Harper comes along. That’s what the numbers say.

But if you want to know about the capriciousness of the draft—and yes, even the very first pick in the draft—you need look no further than Danny Goodwin.

If you haven’t heard of Danny Goodwin, don’t beat yourself up; Goodwin finished his Major League career back in 1982, having spent most of his eight-year professional career in the minors, and showing real promise in just two of his brief Major League trials.

If you have heard of Danny Goodwin, it’s probably because he remains somewhat famous, at least in some circles, as the only player in history to get drafted No. 1 overall—twice.

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Originally published: June 2, 2017. Last Updated: June 2, 2017.