Parker: The AL MVP race? Still over
From SABR member Bill Parker at The Platoon Advantage on September 19, 2012:
Look, I know that Miguel Cabrera is an awesome baseball player, and I know he had a huge game last night, and that he’s currently two homers back of Josh Hamilton from being in a position to win the first Triple Crown since 1967 (as I write this, he appears to be about five points up over Trout in the batting race, and six RsBI over Hamilton). That’d be a pretty amazing accomplishment, and I know that it’s gotta be tempting to go around touting his MVP credentials.
Here’s the thing, though, guys: there’s no AL MVP discussion this year. That was canceled. I’m sorry, I thought you’d heard. It’s Mike Trout. They made the announcement, like, two months ago. I don’t know what rumors you’ve heard or whatever, but nope, that hasn’t changed. It’s still off.
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If you think Cabrera deserves the MVP, and think you can argue that the systems and I are way off on any one of those factors (not just that we can’t be 100% certain about the exact numbers, but that it’s seriously off for some reason), please do. Otherwise, that’s what we’ve got: they’ve been essentially equal with bats in their hands, and Trout has been much, much better in every other aspect. The baserunning, basestealing and defense alone adds up to about a 36-run advantage for Trout; I think the GIDPs could add another ten or more, but I’m frankly undecided about how to handle that, so I won’t (I don’t think it’s necessary). 36 runs is a huge number; WAR says, for example, that Prince Fielder, who has been really, really good, has been worth about that much over the course of the entire season vis-a-vis a random replacement-level player. So, basically: Mike Trout has been one whole Prince Fielder better than Miguel Cabrera.
Read the full article here: http://platoonadvantage.com/2012-articles/september/al-mvp-race-still-over.html
Related link: FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron on Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera and measuring value
Originally published: September 19, 2012. Last Updated: September 19, 2012.