Shi: Using survival analysis to predict Chase Utley’s 200th HBP

From Shanna Shi at The Hardball Times on September 12, 2018:

At the beginning of the season, the Los Angeles Dodgers were coming off a Game Seven loss in the World Series, and Chase Utley was coming off a year in which he suffered his 199th career hit-by-pitch.

The Dodgers broadcast booth was making a big deal of Utley’s looming 200th hit-by-pitch. Beat writers were making a big deal of it. Even MLB, via Cut4, was making a big deal out of it. To be fair, it was kind of a big deal: as of the start of the season, Chase Utley was eighth all-time on the career hit-by-pitch list, and the only active player currently in the top 10. So I started wondering, in the midst of a 1:30 a.m.  insomniac episode: can I predict when number 200 will come?

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Originally published: September 14, 2018. Last Updated: September 14, 2018.