Simon: What’s the outlook for 2017 overachieving and underachieving pitchers?

From SABR member Mark Simon at ACTA Sports on April 3, 2018:

We’re a few days into the 2018 season, and one of the questions on your mind is probably “How will my team’s starting pitchers perform?”

That’s a question that can be looked at in some interesting ways.

At Sports Info Solutions, our defense-independent pitching statistics (DIPS) are able to provide expected results on every ball in play against a pitcher by comparing the ball’s trajectory, direction and velocity to other similar batted balls and assigning value based on those results. We can then compare those to his actual numbers to determine if a pitcher underachieved or overachieved.

In other words, these numbers can tell us if a pitcher may have worked in hard luck, worked in an unfriendly ballpark, or been the victim of some really poor defense. Or perhaps he pitched in good luck, got a few ballpark-friendly outs, or took advantage of some good defense.

Here’s a look at six pitchers, three overachievers and three underachievers from 2017, with their projection for the 2018 season.

Read the full article here:

Originally published: April 3, 2018. Last Updated: April 3, 2018.