Tourtellotte: Manager ejections in the new replay era

From SABR member Shane Tourtellotte at The Hardball Times on December 10, 2014:

The great experiment has ended.

Not that the expanded replay review system begun in the 2014 season is going away. Despite a certain drag on pace of play and other hiccups here and there, replay is a definite success, and MLB has confirmed it’s returning next year. The experiment is over in that it’s become an established part of baseball.

Still, with a full year in the books, it’s time to take stock of the effect the new replay system has had on the major league game. Other writers have done some of that work here already, and I have my own contribution. It concerns a prediction I made here in April, before the replay system had gotten underway.

So let’s go back in time to embarrass me.

In Part Three of my “You’re Outta Here!” series on manager ejections, I speculated on how the replay system would affect the frequency of managers getting themselves thrown out of games. For those disinclined to follow links, here’s the nut of my prediction:

Ejections are going to fall, and substantially, but the bottom will not drop out. The decrease will be less than 50 percent, possibly as little as 25 percent. I’ll predict an ejection rate in 2014 of 1.25 percent, against a 1.75 percent rate in 2013.

So what actually happened? In 2013, there were 85 manager ejections, for a rate as stated of 1.75 percent. In 2014, with expanded replay ostensibly taking away the reason for many of the manager-umpire rhubarbs, there were 90 ejections, for a rate of 1.85 percent. I predicted a serious fall, and instead the rate crept up.

Read the full article here:

Originally published: December 16, 2014. Last Updated: December 16, 2014.