Vigderman: What could MLB look like with 82 games and 14 playoff teams?

From Alex Vigderman at ACTA Sports on May 18, 2020:

There are still many details to be hammered out before we have a baseball season, but it seems likely that we will have a season, even if it looks a little different than usual. An 82-game season with 14 playoff teams is the current proposed structure, one that changes what we should expect come playoff time. What could we reasonably expect in terms of teams making or missing the postseason with this format?

One way to look at this is through simulation. We simulated alternate versions of the 2019 season by drawing random games from the actual 2019 game-by-game results. Season durations of 132 and 32 games were also tested, just to provide context for the effect of a shortened season.

Because it would have been quite tough to simulate a perfect schedule, some teams in each simulation ended up with more or fewer games than the target number. To balance that out a bit, there were 200 simulated seasons of each length and only the 100 with the smallest ranges of games played among teams were used.

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Originally published: May 19, 2020. Last Updated: May 19, 2020.