Where Did The Leadoff Monsters Go?

From SABR member Christina Kahrl at ESPN.com on May 21:

Scoring is down a fifth of a run per team from 2010, a “year of the pitcher.” It’s down four-tenths of a run from 2009, six-tenths of a run if you want to reach back to 2006. We’ve also heard about how power is a big part of this “problem,” as MLB-wide isolated power is down 20-25 points from 2006. But we’re not talking about something else that seems to have gone missing: leadoff hitters who are quality table-setters.

We’ll get into the data up front and then start seeing if we can parse what it might mean. First, there’s the simple fact that OBPs for leadoff hitters are down. Last year’s MLB-wide leadoff man OBP of .329 was the lowest we’ve seen in a full season since 1982, when it was also .329. It hadn’t been lower than .329 since 1978, when the leadoff OBP was .323. From 1993-2010, the American League’s leadoff OBP of .330 was its worst, the NL’s .328 its second-worst. Keep in mind, leadoff OBP didn’t disappear in a puff of PED ban enforcement. As the first chart reflects, leadoff OBPs weren’t just stable after 2006, they went up. The AL’s 2009 leadoff OBP of .355 was its highest since 1996. On-base percentage for leadoff men was back up where it had been in the offensive onslaught of the late ’90s… until last year.

So, a low-water mark was set in 2010, the worst leadoff OBP in 32 seasons … until this spring’s action. In 2011, leadoff hitters have managed to get on base at a .325 clip. It’s especially bad in the American League, where leadoff men were eking out a .312 OBP through Thursday’s action.

Read the full article here: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/11261/where-did-the-leadoff-monsters-go

Originally published: May 23, 2011. Last Updated: May 23, 2011.

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