‘Winner’s curse’ unlikely to strike Texas Rangers

From Stephanie Findlay at the Toronto Star on December 20, 2011, with quotes from SABR president Vince Gennaro, Chris Lund of The Hardball Times and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus:

According to statisticians, it’s unlikely the Texas Rangers will experience buyer’s remorse if they successfully sign Yu Darvish.

“Early on, these guys might have gotten burned because they didn’t really know how the Japanese worked out,” said John Kagel, an auction theorist at Ohio State University, “but in this case they probably have pretty decent information.”

The fear is that Darvish will be a bust, as Hideki Irabu and Kei Igawa were for the Yankees. Even Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka has underperformed after a promising first couple of seasons in North America.

“In my laboratory you see people suffer from the winner’s curse when they’re not experienced,” said Kagel. “But after a while they learn too — and they’re not rocket scientists.”


Read the full article here: http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/mlb/bluejays/article/1105078–winner-s-curse-unlikely-to-strike-rangers

Originally published: December 20, 2011. Last Updated: December 20, 2011.