Wyers: Launching the 2013 PECOTA projections

From SABR member Colin Wyers at Baseball Prospectus on February 11, 2013:

Welcome to the initial launch of this year’s PECOTA forecasts. We hope you find them enlightening, useful, and predictive.

Let’s start with the business aspects of things. In order to access the PECOTA forecasts, you need to be a subscriber to Baseball Prospectus. Monthly subscribers will have access to certain PECOTA features but will not have access to downloads like the PECOTA spreadsheets.  The best value we offer is a yearly subscription, which not only gives you access to the full PECOTA product offering, but also unrestricted access to our extensive prospect coverage, R.J. Anderson’s Transaction Analysis, in-depth analysis from the likes of Ben Lindbergh, Sam Miller, and more, and the latest in baseball research from the likes of Russell Carleton and myself. If you feel you can pass on that, we offer our lower-priced Fantasy subscription, which give you full access to the PECOTA products and all fantasy-focused articles on the site.

We’ll also take this opportunity to remind you that the forecasts are a privilege of your subscription, and for your personal use. If you want to tell your friends not to worry about Roy Halladay because his forecast looks much better than his 2012, go for it. But please do not distribute copies of the PECOTA spreadsheet (or the Depth Charts, or the output of the Player Forecast Manager).

Now, to the fun stuff. As always, we’ll remind you that we’re weathermen, not soothsayers—we provide probabilities and best guesses, not tea leaves and the throwing of bones. We absolutely promise that we hold no ill will toward your team just because its forecasts aren’t as rosy as your hopes; we certainly will take no action against your favorite players to force them to perform more in lines with their projections if they seem to be exceeding them.

Our playing time estimates are based on the input of our staff, headed up by Jason Martinez of MLBDepthCharts. Keep in mind that most pitchers and catchers still haven’t reported to camp, and some key free agents, like Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse, haven’t even signed yet. So we will be updating these playing time estimates frequently as teams make roster moves and we see how rosters shape up in spring training. These aren’t etched in stone.

Read the full article here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19602

Originally published: February 11, 2013. Last Updated: February 11, 2013.