Wyers: The overlooked uncertainty of offensive stats

From SABR member Colin Wyers at Baseball Prospectus on August 28, 2013:

When I started working on a series about revising WARP, I didn’t expect to have much to say on the subject of offense. Measuring offense is probably the least controversial part of modern sabermetrics. So why start here? I have a few reasons:

  • It’s a good place to start, foundationally. The topic of run estimation covers a lot of tools that are useful in more up-for-debate areas.
  • The goal of this series is to be inquisitive; we shouldn’t just assume anything is right. We ought to test.
  • We tend to take the relatively low amount of measurement error on offense for granted, and so neglect the measurement error we do have.

So, we’ll math. But before we math, let’s talk a bit about how sabermetricians measure offense, as opposed to what I like to call “RBI logic.”

Read the full article here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21656

Originally published: August 28, 2013. Last Updated: August 28, 2013.