WAA vs. WAR: Which is the Better Measure for Overall Performance in MLB, Wins Above Average or Wins Above Replacement?

By Campbell Gibson

This article was published in the Fall 2019 Baseball Research Journal.

The data presented in this paper show that the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) concept seriously distorts the evaluation of player performance in Major League Baseball by systematically understating the value of players with relatively short careers and overstating the value of players with relatively long careers. Among the many statistical analyses of baseball that have been published during the last four decades, the single most important in my opinion is The Hidden Game of Baseball (1984) by . . .

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