Short-Term Pitching Brilliance: Comparing Sandy Koufax to Other Short-Term-Peak Players

Sandy Koufax made the National League All-Star team each year from 1961 to 1966. (SABR-Rucker Archive)

 

Who can truly be compared to the great Sandy Koufax? This article offers a historical comparison between Koufax and other “short-term-peak” pitchers. Ron Guidry and Johan Santana will be the comparisons, with concluding thoughts on a current pitcher, Jacob deGrom. These pitchers had distinct phases in their careers and mirrored each other in some fashion. Each had a period of learning and rising, high-level performance, and ultimately a decline.

Sandy Koufax’s contributions to our game are nothing less than spectacular. While his detailed statistics are reviewed elsewhere, we note that his climb to prestige began in 1961, when he gained All-Star status and placed in National League MVP voting. He had continued success through 1966, earning three Cy Young Awards and helping to win a second World Series championship during those years. He was a two-time World Series MVP and had a career ERA of 2.76. With over 2,396 career strikeouts, the seven-time All-Star and Hall of Famer’s accolades are the stuff of legend, especially when one keeps in mind how these honors were earned in just six seasons.

The Ramp Up

When Koufax made his debut in 1955, he walked nearly as many batters as he struck out. His first two games were out of the bullpen until he earned his first start in July of 1955. In 1955 he started five of his 12 games, two of them shutouts. During this time, he pitched sporadically, suffering from lack of control and not getting much opportunity to improve. His middling performances continued throughout the late 1950s and into 1960. Over his first six seasons, his won-lost record was 36-40, with an ERA of 4.10. As 1961 began, so did a new dawn in Koufax’s career.

Ron Guidry was another dominating southpaw, who rose to prominence in the 1970s with the Yankees, and who had a career trajectory comparable to Koufax’s. Guidry played 14 years to Koufax’s 12, and started life out of the bullpen in the same way that Koufax did. In his early years in the minors, he struck out plenty of batters, but he also gave up a lot of walks. Guidry earned his major-league debut in 1975. He spent time during his first two years rotating between the minors and majors, not seeing much action. A key start against Seattle in 1977 in which he pitched 8⅓ shutout innings helped to cement him into the regular rotation. That year he made 25 starts and 6 relief appearances, going 16-7 with a sub-3.00 ERA.

Our third lefty, Johan Santana, is from more recent times, the 1990s and 2000s. This comparison often stirs up the most conversation and opinions. Although he and Koufax came from very different eras, they are often considered as two of the greatest left-handed pitchers in baseball history. Santana enjoyed a great run of about eight years in the 2000s of his 12 total years playing. He showed consistency earlier in his career when compared to Koufax and Guidry. A two-time Cy Young Award winner and four time All-Star, Santana shared a similar rise to stardom. He had fantastic years of peak performance and finally an injury-plagued ending, save for a few late-career gems. His minor-league starts were nothing short of atrocious, as he meandered around rookie ball and low A, with an ERA of 7.36 at one stop and 9.45 at another. Ultimately landing with the Minnesota Twins after a trade, Santana made his major-league debut in 2000. He struggled, to say the least, with an ERA of 6.49 in 86 innings, and an elbow injury in 2001. However, something happened in the 2002 season, a weapon was developed and elevated Santana to stardom. The changeup.

Lights Out!

As the 1961 season got underway, so did Sandy Koufax. That year he racked up 18 wins and led the National League with 269 strikeouts. His magical 1963 season is one for the ages. Riding a sub-2.00 ERA, 306 strikeouts, and his second no-hitter (He threw his first in 1962), he was voted the NL MVP. With a record of 25-5, 11 shutouts, and a sweep in the World Series, in which he was voted the Series MVP, Koufax had arrived. He became best known for an overwhelming fastball and a destructive curveball, and he knew how to change up his mix to keep batters off balance. His curveball was one of the most unhittable pitches in all of baseball. Not free from injury, he developed traumatic arthritis in his left elbow by the end of the 1963 season, which would slowly impact his effectiveness and health. At that time there was no Tommy John surgery or other advanced method to alleviate the injury or pain, so Koufax would submerge his throwing elbow in an ice bath after games. Other remedies included heat treatments with a type of chili powder and an anti-inflammatory pill that is no longer approved for humans. His options were limited, and he lived with excruciating pain. He still pitched some gems, including 15 complete games. He threw seven shutouts in 1964, including another no-hitter.

The pain and success continued side by side into 1965, where Koufax pitched a perfect game late in the season, his fourth no-hitter. That campaign culminated with another World Series win and another World Series MVP. The magic ended in 1966 as the injections became more frequent. Koufax also developed bone spurs in his arm. The Dodgers won another pennant but were swept by the Baltimore Orioles. Koufax retired weeks later at the age of 30.

Guidry enjoyed great peak years as well. His contribution to the game was marked by precision and control. His slider was his bread-and-butter pitch, along with a menacing breaking ball, hitting the corners with remarkable accuracy. In 1977 Guidry pitched a complete game in the AL Championship Series against Kansas City and successfully faced the Dodgers for his first World Series win. Guidry performed well, even earning accolades from his cantankerous manager, Billy Martin. The 1978 season was a fantastic one for Guidry, exemplified by dominating the Angels with an incredible 18 strikeouts during a June 1978 game. The hurler earned team records during that year for lowest ERA for a lefty (1.74), most strikeouts (248), highest win percentage (.893), and most shutouts (9). He won the Cy Young Award, along with another World Series ring, as the Yankees again dispatched the Dodgers. His success continued into 1979, although the Yankees were not back to the big game until 1981.

Santana honed his weapons during the 2002 season in Triple A, posting an ERA of 3.14 in 11 appearances, including 9 starts. As he moved back up to the majors, his stats got better, and his changeup more lethal. By 2003 Santana was in the starting rotation; he had a 2.51 ERA in his last 11 starts and struck out 70 batters in 68 innings. His true rise to prominence came in 2004, when he posted a sub-2.00 ERA with 75 strikeouts over 55 innings in his last seven starts before the All-Star break. With the confidence of his finely tuned changeup, Santana won his first Cy Young Award and led the American League in ERA (2.61), ERA+ (182), WHIP (0.921), and strikeouts per nine innings (10.5). He repeated this stellar performance in 2005 and 2006, leading again in many of those categories. Add to that another exceptional performance as 2007 unfolded, and Santana seemed unstoppable. But the unwanted attention of a potential trade with the Twins out of pennant contention brought drama to the Twin Cities. Santana was the talk of the offseason. By January of 2008 he had a new home with the New York Mets. He managed a good first season with the Mets, picking up a heavy workload. As the 2009 season unfolded, his uncharacteristically low strikeout totals and high number of hits suggested something was wrong. By the end of August, Santana underwent surgery to remove bone chips in his throwing elbow.

Sunset, Impact, and Legacy

Koufax retired after the 1966 season. His retirement was abrupt, although it has been reported that he was considering it for some time.1 Koufax is regarded as one of the top pitchers in baseball. His accolades were tremendous, earning himself election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 1972. He remains a fan favorite to this day.

Guidry was getting older along with the rest of the Yankees as the 1980s rolled on. As his fastball slowed, he shifted his focus to inducing weak contact from hitters. Guidry made his first appearance on the disabled list in 1984 but managed a short resurgence during the 1985 season. He led the AL with a win percentage of .786 and 22 wins, but as time went on so did the reduction in his workload. By 1989 he had retired. He continued to work on and off in baseball until 2015. Guidry’s impact was shown in his leadership, consistency, and admirable work ethic, which served as an example to his teammates. He often outthought and outmaneuvered hitters, especially in later years when his velocity fell off. He espoused the mental side of the game and earned five Gold Glove Awards for his fielding excellence.

Santana came back for the 2010 season with high hopes, but it was clear that he was not quite the same. The low strikeouts and lower velocity on his fastball were beginning to show. He struggled through the season until he left a start in September after a five-inning outing, followed by the bad news that he needed season-ending shoulder surgery. The injury lingered and he missed the entire 2011 season as well. The Mets and Santana looked forward to 2012, which he started well, with an ERA of just over 2.00 by the end of April. Then he shocked everyone, and with a little help from the third-base umpire’s call, Santana threw the first no-hitter in Mets history. The exuberance did not last as he was clobbered in his next start, ran up a high ERA, and ultimately landed on the disabled list by August. Another shoulder injury in 2013 caused him to miss that season. He did not pitch in 2014 after suffering a torn Achilles tendon. Still trying to make a comeback in 2015, another injury caused Santana to end that season, and thus his career. Santana’s impact on baseball is not as profound as Koufax’s, but he was dependable and remains a fan favorite for the Mets and Twins. He has become an inspiration to young players, especially to those coming from Latin America, particularly his native Venezuela.

A Modern Comparison or “The Asterisk”

One of the questions that is often asked in baseball is: What if? What if Sandy Koufax had the benefit of modern remedies to lengthen his playing career? As noted, some of the treatments used in his day were crude and primitive. In a time before Tommy John surgery, the stalwart Koufax endured agonizing pain and disfigurement in his throwing arm. As we make one final comparison, we leave this essay with an asterisk as we do not know the final chapter of our last comparison.

Jacob deGrom’s trajectory is much like those of Koufax, Guidry, and Santana, with clear ramp-up, high performance, and apparent decline at a young age. Although in 2024 we were not sure if deGrom’s sunset was final, his injuries in the ’20s suggest we may have seen the best and last of deGrom. His rise included switching from the field to the mound in college, where he became a top prospect. After being signed to the Mets, he had Tommy John surgery while still in the minors. He won back-to-back Cy Young Awards in 2018 and 2019 with the Mets, and a had low ERA that rivaled Koufax, Guidry, and Santana in their primes. The four-time All-Star made a World Series appearance, although the Mets were not victorious. With his pitch mix including a lightning four-seamer and slider, deGrom served up a buffet of unhittable fare. As age and time have marched on, he has had a litany of injuries. Many questioned the high price he fetched in his move in 2023 to the Texas Rangers, who paid so much for an aging and injury-prone former All-Star. Early in the 2023 season these arguments gained traction. deGrom was shut down in early June, when it was reported that he would have surgery to repair his UCL for the second time in his career. In 2024 the verdict was still out as to whether deGrom would make a full recovery and return to pitching.

SCOTT MARTIRE was born and raised in the Philadelphia suburbs and has been a member of SABR since 2022. He holds the Level One SABR Analytics Certification. This is Scott’s first article for SABR and he looks forward to writing many more. He has particular interest in the business side of baseball and the catcher position. With a background in education, finance, and real estate, Scott currently works in lumber and building materials sales. He enjoys skiing, music, reading about history, and being outdoors.

 

SOURCES

The author consulted Baseball-Reference.com as well as the BioProject biographies of Sandy Koufax and Ron Guidry, and the following:

Rymer, Zachary D. “Retelling Johan Santana’s MLB Journey from Untouchable to Unfixable,” BleacherReport.com, March 29, 2013. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1585844-retelling-johan-santanas-mlb-journey-from-untouchable-to-unfixable.

Stetson University, gohatters.com: https://gohatters.com/sports/baseball/roster/jacob-degrom/3594.

Jacob DeGrom injuries, FoxSports.com, https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/jacob-degrom-player-injuries.

 

NOTES

1 Marc Z. Aaron, “Sandy Koufax,” SABR BioProject, https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/sandy-koufax/.