October 3, 2024: Mets shock Brewers, win NL Wild Card Series on Pete Alonso’s home run

Going into the 2024 postseason, the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers had met 172 times in the regular season since 1998, each team winning 86 games and losing 86 games. The wild-card Mets and National League Central Division champion Brewers continued this trend by splitting the first two games of their 2024 NL Wild Card Series, setting up a decisive third game on October 3.

In the 2024 regular season, the Brewers bullpen had the NL’s lowest ERA at 3.11,1 but the Mets’ five-run fifth against two Milwaukee relievers made the difference in New York’s 8-4 victory in Game One. A night later, the Brewers evened the series when eighth-inning home runs by Jackson Chourio and Garrett Mitchell off Mets set-up man Phil Maton turned a one-run deficit into a 5-3 win.

Oddsmakers favored the 93-win Brewers to advance over the 89-win Mets.2 One possible reason was that in the regular season the Brewers were 5-1 against the Mets. Another was that the game – like the two previous NLWCS games – was at American Family Field in Milwaukee.

Milwaukee started Tobias Myers, who after seven years in the minors discovered success in the majors in 2024. In his rookie season, the 26-year-old righty was 9-6 in 25 starts with a 3.00 ERA.

None of his starts were against the Mets, but he had pitched against New York five days earlier, on September 28. After the Brewers pitched an opener in the first inning, Myers came in for the second and contributed a four-inning effort to earn the decision in a 6-0 win. He allowed just one hit, a double by Starling Marte, while striking out five Mets swinging.

Against Myers on the mound for the wild-card tiebreaker was left-hander Jose Quintana, a 13-year major-league veteran. He finished the 2024 regular season with a 10-10 record and a 3.75 ERA in 31 starts. Two of his starts were against the Brewers. He lost both, including the September 28 game when Myers was the winning pitcher.

At 6:08 P.M. on October 3, Game Three began. Francisco Lindor – headed for a NL MVP runner-up finish to Los Angeles Dodgers’ superstar Shohei Ohtani – opened the game with a double, but Myers retired the next three batters to strand him at first. Pete Alonso’s fly out to deep center was the Mets’ third out.

The next scoring opportunity happened in the bottom of the second when the Brewers’ Gary Sánchez led off by doubling to deep left field. Quintana silenced the threat by striking out two batters and getting the final out on a pop fly to second base.

The pitchers dominated the next two innings. In the third, each team had one runner reach base on a single. In the fourth, just one player reached first, Milwaukee’s Willy Adames singling.

The pitching duel continued in the fifth. The Mets’ Jesse Winker, a former Brewer, made it to first on a hit by pitch, and 20-year-old Milwaukee rookie left fielder Chourio on a base on balls.

In the sixth, the Brewers replaced Myers with Trevor Megill, the older brother of Mets pitcher Tylor Megill. Trevor Megill set the Mets down one-two-three. Quintana matched him in the bottom of the inning.

For the top of the seventh, the Brewers made another pitching switch, inserting Nick Mears on the mound. He mirrored Trevor Megill, facing just three batters, including a strikeout of Alonso to begin the inning.

It was still a scoreless game when the Mets replaced Quintana with José Buttó in the bottom of the seventh. Jake Bauers greeted the Venezuelan right-hander by hitting a homer to deep right on a full-count pitch, and Sal Frelick hit Buttó’s next pitch over the fence in deep right. Suddenly, the Brewers had a two-run lead.

After the next Brewer, Joey Ortiz, lined out, Edwin Diaz entered the game. Despite walking two and Brice Turang stealing two bases, no other runner scored. The inning ended with the Brewers ahead, 2-0.

Freddy Peralta, who had allowed three runs in four innings as Milwaukee’s Game One starter, replaced Mears. Neither team changed the score in the eighth, each sending only three batters to the plate. The game moved to the ninth inning, with the Brewers three outs from advancing to the NL Division Series.

At the start of the ninth inning, as Lindor stood in the batter’s box awaiting the first pitch, the Mets’ Win Expectancy – their chances of winning the game – was just 8 percent, according to Baseball-Reference.

The Brewers’ star closer, Devin Williams, faced Lindor. Going into the 2024 season, mlb.com had ranked Williams as the game’s best reliever.3 Stress fractures in the 30-year-old right-hander’s back delayed his season debut until July 28, but he had been effective since then: a 1-0 record with 14 saves and a 1.25 ERA in 22 appearances.

Sports Illustrated’s Matt Martel wrote this about Williams’s “Airbender” pitch: “the changeup spins like a slider, moves like a screwball and is about as unhittable as a Mariano Rivera cutter.”4

Williams walked Lindor in an eight-pitch battle. Mark Vientos struck out swinging on his fourth pitch. Brandon Nimmo, on a two-strike count, singled to right, advancing Lindor to third.

Alonso, whose 34 homers in 2024 put him in the NL’s Top 5 for the sixth time in his six big-league seasons, stepped into the batter’s box. The 6-foot-3, 29-year-old, right-handed-swinging first baseman had faced Williams once before, on June 6, 2023, at the Mets’ Citi Field. It was the bottom of the ninth with one out. On a 1-and-0 count, he grounded out to shortstop. The Brewers won the game, 2-1.

Alonso took a changeup in the middle of the plate. Home-plate umpire Vic Carapazza called it a strike.

Alonso passed on the next three pitches, two high four-seam fastballs, the second even higher than the first, and a second changeup, low, inside, and out of the strike zone.

The fifth pitch, another changeup, was at the same height as the first pitch and still in the strike zone, but farther away. Alonso lined it to right field, near the notch by the visitors’ bullpen. It cleared the fence and landed 367 feet from home plate.5 The Mets had a 3-2 lead.

It was Alonso’s second career postseason homer, and it had taken a rare path: Only 12 of his 226 career regular-season home runs had gone to the opposite field.6

The homer was also the first one hit off a Williams changeup the entire 2024 season. During the regular season, he had thrown that pitch 176 times. Further, it would not have been a homer in 17 of the 30 big-league ballparks, including Citi Field.

In an article published after the game, Bradford Doolittle of ESPN wrote, “Williams said the pitch, one of his signature changeups, on the outer part of the plate, wasn’t terrible. Just the results were.”7

After Alonso’s four-bagger, the Mets added an insurance run. With one out, Williams hit Winker with a pitch on a 1-and-2 count. Winker stole second, his only theft as a Met. Marte’s single scored Winker for a 4-2 lead. Joe Ross replaced Williams. Tyrone Taylor flied out.

In the bottom of the ninth, David Peterson relieved Díaz. Frelick singled. Ortiz struck out swinging. Turang grounded to Lindor, who stepped on second and threw to Alonso to complete the game-ending double play. The Mets had won their first postseason series since winning the NL Division Series and NL Championship Series in 2015.

The historical significance of Alonso’s blast, the defining moment of his career to that point, extended beyond advancing the Mets to the NL Division Series against the Philadelphia Phillies.8 According to Sarah Langs of MLB.com, “It was the 10th go-ahead home run in the ninth inning or later of a winner-take-all game in postseason history. Incredibly, it was the first of those to come with the player’s team trailing.”9

Acknowledgments

This article was fact-checked by Bruce Slutsky and copy-edited by Len Levin.

Photo credit: Pete Alonso, Trading Card Database.

Sources

In addition to the specific sources cited in the Notes, the author consulted Baseball-Reference.com, Retrosheet.org, The Ultimate Mets Database for player, team, and season data, and a video replay of the game.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIL/MIL202410030.shtml

https://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/2024/B10030MIL2024.htm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDDG2Piskzs

Notes

1 “MLB Stats – Team Bullpen ERA,” Covers.com, https://www.covers.com/sport/baseball/mlb/statistics/team-bullpenera/2024. Accessed January 2025.

2 CBS Sports Staff, “Mets vs. Brewers Prediction, Odds, Line, Time: 2024 MLB Wild Card Series Game 3 Picks, Bets by Proven Model,” cbssports.com, October 3, 2024, https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mets-vs-brewers-prediction-odds-line-time-2024-mlb-wild-card-series-game-3-picks-bets-by-proven-model/.

3 “Top 10 Relievers Right Now,” MLB.com, https://www.mlb.com/stories/mlb-network-top-10-right-now-relievers. Accessed January 2025.

4 Matt Martel, “How One Pitch Helped Devin Williams Become MLB’s Best Reliever,” Sports Illustrated, September 26, 2020, https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/09/26/devin-williams-brewers-changeup.

5 “Mets vs. Brewers – 10/3/2024,” baseballsavant.mlb.com, https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=10/3/2024&gamePk=775337&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=liveAB&sportId=1&liveAb=64#775337. Accessed January 2025.

6 None of his previous opposite field homers were in Milwaukee.

7 Bradford Doolittle, “Brewers’ Devin Williams on Blown Save: ‘No One Feels Worse,’” ESPN, October 4, 2024, https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/41598814/brewers-devin-williams-blown-save-feels-worse. Williams had only one blown save in the 2024 regular season in 22 appearances.

8 The Mets defeated the Phillies, three games to one, to advance to the NL Championship Series, where they lost to the eventual World Series champion Dodgers, four games to two.

9 Sarah Langs, “Here Are 7 Things You Need to Know About Mets’ Wild Comeback Win,” MLB.com, October 4, 2024, https://www.mlb.com/news/mets-brewers-2024-nl-wild-card-game-3-facts-and-figures.