Joe Mauer: A First-Ballot Hall of Famer Without Question

As I sprinted across Oracle Park with my son during the San Francisco Giants home opener on April 7, 2023, an usher and I struck up a conversation.1 Understanding that I was from the Twin Cities and a fan of the Minnesota Twins, he asked me point blank, “Will Joe Mauer end up in the Hall of Fame?” I stumbled around an answer for a minute or two, but eventually we came to a consensus: Mauer would get elected after some time and this in turn would chart the path for Buster Posey’s eventual election. Following our consensus, we parted ways, and my son and I continued our hectic journey across the ballpark.

Such debates about Mauer’s eventual election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown were settled by the announcement on January 23, 2024, that he would become just the third catcher to be elected on the first ballot, joining Johnny Bench and Ivan Rodriguez. Mauer’s quick election created a new question: What did the voters see that convinced them Mauer should be a first-ballot Hall of Famer?2

Answering this question became my objective. Coming of age as a Twins fan in the early to mid-2000s, I will always have a soft spot in my heart for Joe Mauer. His career was synonymous with the formation of my love for the Twins and was the rebirth of Twins baseball fandom for countless others.3 In my line of work as a baseball historian, I made it my job to analyze Mauer’s career and understand this first-ballot view. The narrative that follows provides a clear answer: Removing the lens of longevity, Joe Mauer is one of the 10 best catchers to ever play major-league baseball and is deserving of the first-ballot distinction. While longevity is among the rationales for election to the Hall of Fame, it is not the sole arbiter. The prime of Mauer’s career ranks among those of Bench, Yogi Berra, and any other Hall of Fame backstop. The statistics support Mauer as a first-ballot inductee.

Drafted out of high school with the first overall pick in the 2001 amateur draft, Mauer finished his career with 55.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). The total WAR of the other six catchers who were selected at number one is 15.7, and 11.5 of that total belongs to Adley Rutschman, who made his major-league debut in 2022.4 This gulf of WAR between Mauer and his fellow top-pick backstops is significant; he’s the greatest catcher ever drafted with the first pick, a cohort that dates to the initial draft in 1965. Compared to all catchers, regardless of draft position, Mauer is 10th all time in WAR. Except for Joe Torre—who was voted in as a manager—every catcher ranked ahead of him is in the Hall of Fame, as are Ted Simmons, Mickey Cochrane, and Buck Ewing, the three catchers immediately behind him.5 Of the 21 catchers in the Hall of Fame, 12 have a WAR above 48.

The issue of Mauer’s career being Hall of Fame caliber can be put to bed with a simple review of WAR; the underlying statistics bring this notion home. Mauer’s statistical menagerie redefined the concept of offensive production for catchers in the mid-to-late 2000s. His career slash line of .306/.388/.439 is one of the most balanced lines among backstops in the history of the game. He was the first AL catcher to win a batting title (.347 in 2006) and the first to lead the National and American Leagues in OPS at 1.031 in his MVP season of 2009.6 Mauer was a multidimensional offensive threat. There are only three catchers in major-league history with more than 2,000 hits and an .825 OPS. They are Yogi Berra, Mike Piazza, and Joe Mauer.7 He’s the only one with at least 2,000 hits, a .300 average, and a .380 on-base average.8

As a basic measure of “who were the best to ever play the game,” Wins Above Replacement does well, and it has filtered into the mainstream of player analysis. Still, WAR comes with its flaws, which can be put into perspective by analyzing Mauer’s career.

While career longevity does not guarantee a player meets standards for election to the Hall of Fame, when it comes to first-ballot status, catchers have largely been judged using this criterion. Prior to Mauer’s election, 20 catchers had been enshrined at Cooperstown. Except for Cochrane and two Negro Leaguers, each of them played at least 16 seasons, mostly behind the plate.9 Historically, the definition of a Hall of Fame catcher has been someone who played forever, almost exclusively behind the plate.10 Mauer’s first-ballot election changes this narrative.

This narrative emerges with clarity through a condensed view of WAR. This approach to WAR turns the focus on the prime of a player’s career. Through analysis of statistics like WAR7 (top seven WAR seasons), WAR5c (best five consecutive WAR seasons), WAR3 (top three WAR seasons), and JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score System, the average of WAR and WAR7), Mauer ranks among the 10 best catchers in the history of the National and American Leagues.11 While Mauer’s WAR of 55.2 reflects his entire career, half of which was not spent behind the plate, his “condensed” WAR statistics more readily highlight his Hall of Fame credibility as a catcher.12

 

Mauer’s prime, 2006–13, represents one of the greatest stretches of play from a catcher in baseball history. During those eight seasons, Mauer won three Gold Gloves and five Silver Sluggers, was named to six All-Star teams, and received MVP votes in five of the eight seasons, winning in a landslide in 2009 with 27 of a possible 28 first-place votes.

Of the four Hall of Fame catchers ahead of Mauer in WAR3 (Bench, Piazza, Gary Carter, Carlton Fisk), only Bench garnered the first-ballot distinction.13

The writers who vote in Hall of Fame elections have never defined what a “first-ballot Hall of Famer” should be, and it’s worth noting that the meaning of the distinction has evolved. The first Hall of Fame election was in 1936, more than a half century into major-league baseball history. There was a massive backlog of deserving players when voting started, and it took decades to clear. Such titans as Mel Ott, Jimmie Foxx, and Joe DiMaggio weren’t elected on the first ballot.

This created a mystique around the idea of a “first-ballot Hall of Famer,” and most writers wouldn’t vote for a player in his first year of eligibility unless they thought he was on par with the original “first ballot” class of 1936: Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Christy Mathewson, and Walter Johnson. After the 1936 election, the next players who made it in on the first ballot were Jackie Robinson and Bob Feller—in 1962.

That mystique began to fade as the backlog finally cleared and new generations of writers earned a vote, but it hasn’t disappeared. It still means something to go in on the first try.

In The Politics of Glory, Bill James gave us the gift of similarity scores. Stated simply, a similarity score allows us to answer the question, “What other player is most similar to this player?” You can compare similarity scores for a career or by age; the age distinction allows us to view who Mauer was most like during his prime. Moving beyond WAR, similarity scores use the wonders of statistical analysis to advance player comparison beyond the eye test and into the realm of sabermetrics.14

 

We start at a score of 1,000, which would be a carbon copy of the player in question at that stage of his career. Any score above 950 is classified as unusually similar, 900+ is seen as truly similar, and 850+ is essentially similar. While longevity does not benefit Mauer’s career, this condensed collection of seasons places him in the Hall. The review of the season and career statistics can continue ad nauseam; similarity scores identify how much of Mauer’s career was like that of other Hall of Fame catchers.

All these players, minus Shanty Hogan and Posey, who isn’t yet eligible, are in the Hall of Fame.15 Being “unusually similar” to Campanella is not an aberration, nor is the “truly similar” comparison to Cochrane. In six of the nine seasons highlighted above, Mauer was at least “truly similar” to Hall of Fame catchers Campanella, Cochrane, and Bill Dickey.

As we know, this is not the complete story with Mauer. Beyond age 30, Mauer’s primary position shifted to first base, and the comparisons shift as well.16 From age 31 to his retirement at 35, Mauer was at least “truly similar” to three players: Michael Young in all five of those seasons, Dustin Pedroia in three of them, and Hall of Famer Craig Biggio in one.17

What we are left with following Mauer’s first-ballot election is a rejuvenation of the election process. The writers were correct in this election; Mauer now stands with Bench and Rodriguez as the only catchers in history to receive this honor. What Mauer’s election does to the view we have of Bench and Rodriguez is the wrong direction to look. It is not about eroding our analysis of their careers. The definition of a Hall of Fame catcher continues its evolution with this Hall of Fame class. Mauer’s election represents a shift in the other direction, expanding our view of what a first-ballot Hall of Fame career looks like.

SAM SUNDERMEYER lives with his wife Ann, and sons Ford, Winston, and Ernest in St. Louis Park, Minnesota. Sam has a BS in recreation from Minnesota State University, Mankato, and an MA in history from Norwich University. Sam teaches American history at Eagle Ridge Academy in Minnetonka, Minnesota.

 

Notes

1 Time of game was 2:23 that day. My then 4-year-old wanted to see every aspect of Oracle Park, which proved to be difficult under MLB’s new pace of play initiative.

2 Mauer received 293 out of a possible 385 votes, 76.1%.

3 For those not familiar, a quick synopsis. 1997: Twins owner Carl Pohlad entertains selling the team to a North Carolina group that would move the team. The deal falls through after a stadium referendum is defeated in North Carolina. 2000: The Twins complete their eighth consecutive losing season, drawing only 1,000,760 fans to the Metrodome, down from a high of 3 million-plus in 1988. 2001: Twins draft Joe Mauer with the first overall pick. Following the season (85 wins, first winning season since 1992), Pohlad offers to sell the Twins to MLB for $150 million, offering the team up for contraction. 2002: Harry Crump, Hennepin County District Judge, issues an injunction, ordering the Twins to play the season in the Metrodome due to the stipulations of their lease. The Twins win 94 games and the AL Central Division title and advance to the ALCS. Division titles follow in 2003 and 2004 (attendance increases to 1.9 million as well). Bit of a roller coaster for everyone involved.

4 Catchers drafted 1–1 in the MLB Draft (Career WAR): 1966, Mets: Steve Chilcott (0.0, never played in MLB); 1970, Pirates: Mike Ivie (7.2), mostly played 1B in the majors; 1971, White Sox & 1975, Angels: Danny Goodwin (-1.7); 2001, Twins: Joe Mauer (55.2); 2019, Orioles: Adley Rutschman (11.5); 2021, Pirates: Henry Davis (-1.6). Rutschman’s and Davis’s totals are through May 21, 2024. Their careers are in their infancy, but the overall track record for 1–1 catchers is not good.

5 A subject for a whole other article. Torre is in the Hall of Fame for his managerial success (six pennants, four World Series titles) but a 17-year career with 2,342 hits, .297 batting average, OPS+ of 129 could not cut it in the eyes of the writers.

6 “Joe Mauer,” Baseball Reference, https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml.

7 Bench (.817 OPS), Fisk (.797 OPS), Gibson (808 hits), Torre (.817 OPS) miss the cut.

8 “Joe Mauer,” National Baseball Hall of Fame, https://baseballhall.org/hall-of-famers/mauer-joe.

9 Percentage of games at catcher (career): Bench: 80, Carter: 89, Rodriguez: 95, Fisk: 89, Berra: 80, Mauer: 49.5.

10 Six of the 20 hit more than 300 home runs in their career.

11 Jay Jaffe, “Jaffe War Score System,” Baseball Reference, November 19, 2012, https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/jaws.shtml.

12 Jay Jaffe, “JAWS and the 2024 Hall of Fame Ballot,” FanGraphs, December 1, 2023, Jay Jaffe, “JAWS and the 2024 Hall of Fame Ballot,” FanGraphs, December 1, 2023, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/.

13 Fisk was elected in his second year of eligibility, Piazza in his fourth, and Carter in his sixth.

14 Bill James, The Politics of Glory (New York: Macmillan, 1994), 88–107.

15 Shanty Hogan played for 13 seasons, led the National and American Leagues with 12 intentional walks in 1928 and had an OPS+ of 119 in 1935 as Babe Ruth’s teammate with the Boston Braves. Great name, not a Hall of Famer.

16 After suffering a severe concussion behind the plate in 2013, Mauer’s career was never the same. Regardless of the position change, Mauer hit just .267/.353/.380 from 2014–16, rebounding to hit .305/.384/.417 in his penultimate season of 2017. Jay Jaffe breaks this down masterfully in his case for Mauer and the Hall of Fame: Jay Jaffe, “JAWS and the 2024 Hall of Fame Ballot,” FanGraphs, December 1, 2023, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2024-hall-of-fame-ballot-joe-mauer/.

17 Young was eliminated from the HOF ballot in his first year of eligibility with 2.1% of the vote. Pedroia will be on the ballot for the first time in 2024. Biggio, like Mauer, came up as a catcher and was an All-Star at the position, but moved to second base for his age-26 season, and later moved to center field.