Last At-Bat Heroics

In their very first major-league game at home, the 1901 Detroit Tigers accomplished the largest ninth-inning comeback in major league history. (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)

 

On May 23, 2024, the Colorado Rockies were visiting the Oakland A’s for the final game of a three-game series. Both teams were having difficult seasons. The Rockies were 16–32 while the A’s were sporting a 20–31 record and both teams were in the cellar of their respective divisions. The A’s had struggled offensively, with the third lowest runs scored in the league to date. There was little to indicate that something extraordinary was going to happen during this contest.

The Rockies put a pair of runs on the board in both the first and sixth innings, so the A’s came to bat in the bottom of the seventh trailing by four. Oakland scored one in the seventh, two in the eighth, and another run in the ninth to tie the score and send the game to extra innings. Both teams put up a run in the 10th, but pitchers Mason Miller and Brandon Bielak allowed four Colorado runners to cross the plate in the 11th. In the home half, a double, single, and homer tied the score, which soon brought Tyler Soderstrom to the dish with the bases loaded and two outs. Then Rockies reliever Pete Lambert walked Soderstrom on four pitches to force in the winning run of the contest. Oakland had scored five runs in the bottom of the 11th to win.

I was watching this game on television. A dollar-a-game bet that the A’s would exceed 58 wins on the season (they finished with 69) kept me interested in the outcome of every contest during the campaign, but life called out, “Go do something else,” after the Rockies scored four in the 11th. I’m glad I ignored that call and got to witness the events in the bottom of the inning, but I wondered: how rare is it for a team to come back from down four runs so late in the game? It felt rare but I wanted to quantify it. This article is the answer to that query.

Before rarity can be determined, the event must be defined. Initially, we are only going to look at what happened in the tenth, 11th, and 12th innings, in Organized Baseball games from 1901 through the 2024 season. How often does the home team win in one of those innings when trailing by four runs or more, which means the visiting team will have had to score at least four runs in the top of the tenth, 11th, or 12th inning? Later in this paper, we also examine these types of comebacks that take place in the ninth inning.

The extra inning data searches were done using Stathead on Baseball Reference. I am indebted to Tom Thress at Retrosheet for providing the data about ninth inning comebacks.

 

 

RESULTS FOR EXTRA INNINGS

Table 1, which lists all extra inning comebacks of five runs or more, shows that there are more instances in the 10th inning (five) than later innings combined (four).1 That’s simply a function of additional opportunities, because every extra-inning game goes 10 innings, but fewer games go 11 innings, and fewer still go 12 innings (and so on). The first 10th inning case matching our criteria happened in 1930, and the last occurred in 2011. Two of the instances happened in the offensively-oriented 1930s.

There were 10 different teams involved in the five 10th inning comebacks, with the Philadelphia Phillies doing it first in 1930. The last team to do it was the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2011. Expanding the team analysis to include 11th and 12th inning comebacks yields interesting results. The only team to accomplish this type of comeback twice was the Philadelphia Phillies, who did it in 1930 and 1966. The team that allowed both of those comebacks was the Pittsburgh Pirates. There are nine comebacks total in Table 1. The Pirates were involved in one-third of the games. The third instance for Pittsburgh was their successful comeback in 1991.

Although we are not going to discuss each of these games in detail, there are features that are worth noting about some of the contests. For example, in addition to scoring five runs in the 10th inning to win the 1930 comeback, the Phillies also scored five runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to force the game into extra innings (another rarity). That’s only time since 1901 that Philadelphia won a home game with five runs in both the ninth and 10th innings.2

In the latest 10th inning comeback in 2011, the Los Angeles Dodgers were visiting the Diamondbacks on the penultimate day of the season. The game was a pitcher’s duel, with the score 1–1 owing to a single run crossing the plate for each team in the seventh inning. But offense exploded in the 10th inning. Four hits by the Dodgers, combined with two errors by the Diamondbacks allowed five runs to score in the top half of the inning.

It didn’t look good for the home team, especially after the first two Arizona batters in the home half were retired on ground balls. At that point, the Diamondbacks’ win expectancy was 0.04 percent (1 in 2,500).3 But two singles and a walk loaded the bases, and an error and a second walk scored two runs. Then, with the bases loaded and Arizona trailing by three, infielder Ryan Roberts sent the first pitch he saw over the left-field wall for a walk-off grand slam.

Regarding 11th inning comebacks, just two other teams besides the Athletics have scored five runs to win when trailing by four in the bottom of the 11th inning. The Phillies accomplished the feat on May 6, 1966. After the Pirates scored three runs in the seventh to tie the score the game went into extra innings. Roger Craig was pitching the top of the 11th for the Phillies. Willie Stargell led off with a double, and his pinch runner scored on a single. Donn Clendenon reached on an error, and a three-run homer by Bill Mazeroski put the Pirates ahead by four.

In the home half of the 11th, Woodie Fryman allowed consecutive singles before being relieved by Roy Face. Two more singles by Tony Taylor and Cookie Rojas scored two runs and brought Bob Uecker to the plate with men on first and second. Uecker failed to advance the runners with a bunt, but another single by Jackie Brandt scored a run. That brought 1960 MVP Award winner Dick Groat to the plate with two outs and men on second and third, and his single (the sixth of the inning for the Phillies) drove in the final two runs for a Philadelphia walk-off victory.

Twenty-five years later the Pirates again participated an 11th inning walk-off involving a big comeback, but this time the Pirates were the home team, and they overcame a five-run deficit. On April 21, 1991, when the Cubs were visiting Three Rivers Stadium, the Pirates tied the game with a run in the bottom of the ninth to send the contest into extra innings.

Neither team scored in the 10th, but a grand slam by Andre Dawson in the top of the 11th put the Cubs ahead 12–7. In the home half, pitcher Heathcliff Slocum walked the lead-off hitter and allowed consecutive singles, which brought Jay Bell to the plate with the bases loaded. Bell hit a double off Slocum’s replacement, Mike Bielecki, and Andy Van Slyke’s sacrifice fly got the Pirates within two runs with one out. Bielecki walked Bobby Bonilla to put runners on the corners with Barry Bonds coming to the plate. Bonds’ single brought the Pirates to within a run, and another walk loaded the bases. Don Slaught’s double drove in two runs that won the game and completed the five-run comeback.

These two games, plus the Rockies-Athletics contest that opened this article, are the only times a team has overcome a deficit of four runs or more in the 11th inning. Big comebacks in the 12th inning or later are even less frequent. It has only happened one other time, on July 5, 1969, in San Diego as the Houston Astros visited the Padres for a four-game series. What makes this event even more surprising is that San Diego was in the first season of its existence, and was playing just the 83rd game in franchise history. The Astros franchise hadn’t been around much longer, playing in just the eighth season of its history.

The game was knotted at three runs each after nine innings. Jim Wynn put the Astros ahead by a run with a homer in the top of the 10th, but a two out single in the home half by Van Kelly forced the contest to continue. Neither team scored in the 11th, but a two-run double by Johnny Edwards, a sacrifice bunt by Denis Menke, and a triple by Doug Rader put four runs on the board for the Astros in the 12th. An epidemic of singles, similar to what happened three years earlier in Philadelphia, broke out in the bottom of the inning. A single and a double put runners on second and third with one out. Two more singles sent two runs home before a wild pitch got the Padres within a run. Another pair of singles tied the ballgame, and Walt Hriniak’s walk-off single won the game for the Padres. San Diego hit six singles and a double in the inning to complete the comeback.

WHAT ABOUT THE NINTH INNING?

The frequency of four-plus run comebacks in extra innings have been determined, but let’s reverse course and examine the frequency of ninth inning comebacks of four runs or more. The ninth inning situation is different from an extra inning game because the visiting team doesn’t have to score all its runs in one inning to set up the potential comeback, and the lead can be obtained over the course of the game rather than in one inning. This means that there will be more opportunities for the big comeback to occur in the ninth inning compared to extra-inning games.

It also means that we have to be specific about the ninth inning situation that is under exploration. In order to be consistent with the previous analysis, we are only going to examine games in which the home team trailed by four or more runs entering the home half of the ninth and earned a walk-off victory to win the game before extra innings began. The data provided by Tom Thress show that this type of ninth-inning comeback happened 177 times in the American or National Leagues from 1901 to 2024.4

 

Graph 1. Walk-Off Wins in the Ninth Inning: Team Trailed by Four or More Runs and Scored Five or More Runs

 

Graph 1 shows when these 177 comebacks occurred and the number of occurrences per season.

A close examination of Graph 1 yields some interesting observations. Over the entire time period there are 32 seasons without a big comeback which means that roughly one-quarter of years don’t have one. However, the distribution of years without a comeback is not uniform. Comebacks have been more common since 1970 than they were before then. There have been just five seasons without a big ninth inning comeback since 1970 and the only season without a comeback after 2000 was the pandemic-shortened campaign of 2020.

There were 27 seasons without a big comeback before 1970. The longest interval without one occurred from 1964 to 1969. This isn’t too surprising given the domination of pitching during that time period. Similarly, from 1901 to 1909 there were just two years with a big comeback. Again, this is to be expected given the dead ball that was used at the time.

When offense (including home runs) increased after 1920, so did the number of big comebacks. There were 31 comebacks in the 18 years from 1921 to 1938 and only two years, 1924 and 1933, without one. Teams mounted a big comeback 11 times during the 1940s and 13 times during the 1950s. The 1960s had just four big ninth inning comebacks but the total increased to 19 during the 1970s. There was at least one comeback each year during the 1980s except for the strike-shortened 1981 season with a total of 14 during the decade. Seventeen teams made a big comeback during the 1990s.

Overall, there have been 37 years with one big comeback and 32 seasons with two. There were three comebacks per season during 19 campaigns, but there were just three years with four big comebacks: 1941, 1979, and 1988. The year with the most big comebacks was 2007; seven teams had a big comeback during that season. There doesn’t appear to be any particular reason why those four years had more comebacks, but it’s interesting that five of the seven comebacks in 2007 occurred in just over three weeks given that there are many years when it never happens. On May 13 Boston scored six in the home ninth to win. Four days later, the Mets trailed 5–1 against the Cubs and got five to win in the ninth. Cleveland accomplished the feat on June 1 against Detroit and Toronto scored six in the bottom of the ninth to win on June 5. San Diego finished the series of big comeback wins with five in the ninth against the Dodgers on June 7.

We’ve examined the frequency of big ninth inning comebacks, and since they have happened more often than extra innings comebacks, let’s examine the largest ninth inning comebacks. What’s the largest deficit that the home team overcame in the bottom of the ninth for a walk-off win? Four of those games stand out.

The two largest ninth inning comebacks are also the earliest, having both occurred in 1901, the first year the American League attained major-league status. The Detroit Tigers played their first major-league game at home on April 25, 1901, against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers led 13–4 when Detroit came to bat in the bottom of the ninth. Detroit scored 10 runs in the home ninth to win the game. Something very similar happened about a month later. On May 23 Cleveland (without any nickname in 1901 according to Ed Coen) was hosting the Washington Senators.5 The Senators led the contest 13–5 after they put up two runs in the top of the ninth. Cleveland responded with nine in the bottom of the ninth to win the contest. It’s a fascinating coincidence that the two biggest comebacks both finished 14–13, and happened within a month of each other.

The Boston Red Sox overcame a seven-run deficit on June 18, 1961. The Washington Senators were visiting Fenway Park and led 7–5 after eight innings, but the Senators scored five more runs in the top of the ninth to increase the lead to seven. Carl Mathias, the starting pitcher for the Senators, got Vic Wertz to ground out before allowing a single and getting the second out of the inning with a strikeout. The Red Sox win expectancy at that point was 0.02 percent (1 in 5,000) and Mathias was one out away from a complete game victory with a seven-run lead.

But he couldn’t get out of the inning, allowing two singles, a walk, a run scored, before leaving the bases loaded for reliever Dave Sisler. The relief pitcher, who began his career as a starting pitcher but was finishing it as a reliever, was the son of the St. Louis Browns Hall of Famer George Sisler. Sisler walked the first two batters he faced, which cut Washington’s advantage to four runs and brought Jim Pagliaroni to the plate with the bases still juiced. Pagliaroni sent a pitch over the left-field wall for a grand slam that tied the game. Sisler walked Wertz to put the potential winning run on base before he was relieved. Two more singles drove in the winning run for the Red Sox to complete the comeback.

It was a forgettable outing for Sisler. He walked three of the four batters he faced, and allowed a grand slam to the fourth. It’s an interesting coincidence that Pagliaroni was involved in two of the big comebacks described in this article. Following his grand slam in 1961 (one of just two in his 11-year career), Pagliaroni was traded to Pittsburgh in 1962 and was with the Pirates in 1966 when they allowed the Phillies to overcome a four-run deficit in the bottom of the 11th.

The most recent of these big ninth inning comebacks happened in 1986. On August 29 of that year, the Tigers were visiting Anaheim and led 12–5 entering the home half of the ninth. The Angels had scored two runs, and had men on second and third when Willie Hernández came on in relief. Hernández, who had won the American League Cy Young and MVP Awards two years earlier and was on the All-Star team the previous month, gave up run-scoring singles to George Hendrick and Bobby Grich that got California within three runs with two men on. Gary Pettis grounded out for the second out of the inning but Hernández walked Ruppert Jones to load the bases. Dick Schofield completed the comeback with a walk-off grand slam home run. California scored eight runs in the bottom of the ninth when trailing by seven. You have to wonder how many fans who attended the game were still there to see it.

This article has explored walk-off wins when the home team trailed by four runs or more runs going into their final at-bat in the ninth inning or later. The results show that it doesn’t happen very often. There have been just nine cases in the 10th, 11th, and 12th innings. It’s happened more frequently in the ninth inning with 177 occurrences during 92 separate years since 1901. The overarching conclusion? Consider yourself lucky if you’ve witnessed one of these comeback wins.

DOUGLAS JORDAN is a professor emeritus at Sonoma State University in Northern California. In addition to the Baseball Research Journal he has published articles in Nine and The Sport Journal. His book, “3,000: Baseball’s Elite Clubs for Hits and Strikeouts,” was published by McFarland in 2024. He enjoys hiking and chess when he is not watching or writing about baseball. You can contact him at jordand@sonoma.edu.

 

Acknowledgments

Many thanks to three anonymous reviewers. Their comments significantly improved the final result.

 

Notes

1. Baseball Reference, Stathead, Search for single games, from 1901 to 2025, Team Won, Game ended in a walk-off (100 percent complete s. 1969), in the regular season, with >= 5 runs scored in the 10th inning with >= 4 runs allowed in the 10th inning, sorted by descending Season, accessed July 5, 2025, https://stathead.com/tiny/PErpU. Similar searches for the 11th and 12th innings gave the other Table 1 results. Similar searches for innings 13 to 20 came up empty.

2. Baseball Reference, Stathead, Search for single games, from 1901 to 2024, Team Won, For PHI, in the regular season, playing at home, with >= 5 runs scored in the 9th inning, sorted by descending Season, accessed July 5, 2025, https://stathead.com/tiny/NgJfw.

3. Baseball Reference, Frivolities, Big Comebacks, accessed July 5, 2025, https://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/comeback-wins.shtml.

4. You can e-mail me at jordand@sonoma.edu if you want a copy of the Tom Thress file that contains the 269 individual games described in this section of the paper. Or you can wait for a book I am writing about those comebacks to come out, hopefully in 2026.

5. Ed Coen, “Setting the Record Straight on Major League Team Nicknames,” SABR Baseball Research Journal, Fall 2019, accessed July 4, 2025, https://sabr.org/journal/article/setting-the-record-straight-on-major-league-team-nicknames/.