The Henry Aaron Home Run Analysis

Now that Henry Aaron has closed out his illustrious career and there is no home run hitter of note around to challenge his record, it is a good time to sum up his contributions in the context of an over-all home run review.

As practically every baseball fan knows, Aaron closed out with 755 roundtrippers. He hit 385 on the road, and 370 at home, both of which are new career records he has taken over from Babe Ruth.  The key to his over-all performance was consistency over a long period.  He hit 341 homers in his twenties (trailing only Jimmie Foxx, Eddie Mathews, and Mickey Mantle); he hit 372 in his thirties (trailing only Ruth and ahead of Mays); and he hit 42 in his forties (trailing only Stan Musial and Ted Williams). Note that except for Aaron, the cast changes in each decade. He hit 10 or more for 23 consecutive years, easily a record.

Aaron’s chief home run victim was Don Drysdale of the Dodgers who was reached for 17 roundtrippers. The number off one hurler is not a record as Ruth hit 18 of Rube Walberg, Mays 18 off Warren Spahn, and Foxx 18 each off Red Ruffing and Al Crowder.

Henry hit extra inning homers 13 times, but trailed several in that department. Mays hit 22 after the 9th inning, Ruth and Frank Robinson 16, Foxx and Mantle 14, and Ted Williams also hit 13.

With his 755 home runs, Aaron knocked in 1240 runs, a new record. This averages out to 1.64 runs per homer, compared to 1.69 for Ruth. As might be expected, Aaron hit the most home runs with the bases empty, 399, compared to 365 for Mays and 350 for Ruth.  When it came to belting with Braves and Brewers on base, Henry could not quite get out of the shadow cast by the Bambino. The Babe edged him in 2-run homers 249 to 243, and in 3-run blasts 99 to 97, and they were locked in fourth place with 16 grand slams. Ruth’s slugging mate Lou Gehrig was out in front with 23.

A review of the career records of the top 50 or so home run hitters reveals that roundtripper run production by Ruth and Aaron was pretty typical of their different eras. Great power hitters of the 1920s and 1930s usually hit more than 50% of their fourbaggers with one or more runners on base. Sluggers of the last 25 years usually hit less than 50% of their homers with bases occupied. The main reason for that disparity is because there were more base runners and fewer homers hit in the l920s and 1930s. The reverse has been true in the last generation.

There are exceptions in both eras and I suppose clutch hitting on an individual basis might be one of the factors. Batting third or fourth also would make a difference over a career in the number of runs batted in with homers. And then certain teams have a higher on-base average.

In regard to the exceptions, it might come as a surprise that Rogers Hornsby, a central figure in the heavy-hitting era, connected slightly less than 50% of the time with men on. Bob Johnson of the Athletics, a good RBI man on a weak team, was another. Gabby Hartnett and Dolph Camilli are two more from that era.

Since Ted Williams retired in 1960, there have been very few sluggers who could connect 50% of the time with anyone on base.  Yogi Berra and Vic Wertz, who hit their last homers in 1963, did it, and Wertz was particularly productive. The pitchers decade of the 1 960s was quite rough on run production. Two batters who got through that period in pretty good shape were Harmon Killebrew and Boog Powell, neither of whom hit much for average but connected with men on base. Killebrew was the most consistent of all sluggers in hitting 2-run homers. I don’t know if it was Tony Oliva or Rod Carew who was getting on base for the Twins, but Harmon hit 223 or 39% of his 573 homers with one man on.

Two other modern players who deserve mention as productive home run hitters are Johnny Bench and Tony Perez. Both connect slightly more than 50% of the time with men on. As is well known, the Reds have had a strong batting attack with players like Pete Rose and Joe Morgan getting on base quite frequently. Bench is producing 1.74 runs on homers, which is tops among active sluggers and is almost a throwback to the old days.

At the end of this article is a breakdown of the home runs hit by the top career leaders through the 1976 season. As it is not very meaningful to compare totals when you have a spread of 500 home runs-from 755 for Aaron to 256 for Bench-it would be best to summarize on a percentage basis the top and bottom figures. For example, it might be interesting to know that among the players considered, Ted Williams connected most frequently with men on-whether it was 1, 2, or 3.  Conversely, only 44.5% of his 521 homers came with the bases empty.  At the other end of the run-producing spectrum is Jimmy Wynn, who is connecting 58% of the time with no one on base. But Wynn is only the modern reflection of a “bases empty” syndrome which includes such names as Reggie Jackson, Norm Cash, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Frank Robinson, Orlando Cepeda, and Al Kaline.

Kaline hit the fewest grand slams, only 3 out of 399, while Gehrig was hitting 23 out of 493, or 5%. Rudy York was next with 12 out of 277 (4.3%). On 3-run homers, York and Jimmie Foxx topped the list with 18% while Norm Cash was down to 8%. On 2-run homers, Killebrew leads with 39%, followed by Del Ennis, Tony Perez, and Ted Williams. Orlando Cepeda hit only 27% of his homers with one man on.

On over-all run production with home runs, Vic Wertz averaged 1.80 RBIs per homer, York 1.78, and Gehrig 1.77. At the other end, Ted Kluszewski averaged 1.55, Wynn, Cash, and Kaline 1.56. Henry Aaron is in the mid-range with 1.64. Here is the full list.

 

	Total Homers	Bases Empty	One On	Two On	Grand Slam	RBIs on Homers	RBIs/ Homer
Henry Aaron	755	399	243	97	16	1240	1.64
Babe Ruth	714	350	249	99	16	1209	1.69
Willie Mays	660	365	219	68	8	1039	1.57
Frank Robinson	586	325	184	70	7	931	1.59
Harmon Killebrew	573	275	223	64	11	957	1.67
Mickey Mantle	536	297	162	68	9	861	1.60
Jimmie Foxx	534	254	167	96	17	944	1.76
Ted Williams	521	233	197	74	17	917	1.76
Ed Mathews	512	271	182	51	8	820	1.60
Ernie Banks	512	262	160	78	12	864	1.69
Melvin Ott	511	235	187	82	7	883	1.73
Lou Gehrig	493	231	166	73	23	874	1.77
Stan Musial	475	230	181	55	9	793	1.67
Willie McCovey	465	252	138	59	16	769	1.65
Billy Williams	426	216	162	40	8	692	1.62
Duke Snider	407	219	140	43	5	648	1.59
Al Kaline	399	220	136	40	3	624	1.56
Willie Stargell	388	196	125	57	10	657	1.69
Frank Howard	382	202	133	42	5	614	1.61
Orlando Cepeda	379	209	103	48	9	595	1.57
Norman Cash	377	213	123	33	8	590	1.56
Rocky Colavito	374	192	116	59	7	629	1.68
Gil Hodges	370	196	105	55	14	627	1.69
Ralph Kiner	369	188	121	47	13	623	1.69
Joe DiMaggio	361	170	119	59	13	635	1.76
Johnny Mize	359	172	125	56	6	614	1.72
Yogi Berra	358	169	129	51	9	616	1.72
Richie Allen	346	181	118	39	8	558	1.61
Ron Santo	342	180	112	44	6	560	1.64
Boog Powell	339	160	130	42	7	574	1.69
Carl Yastrzemski	338	186	107	39	6	541	1.60
Joe Adcock	336	182	106	38	10	558	1.66
Hank Greenberg	331	160	109	51	11	575	1.74
Roy Sievers	318	163	99	46	10	539	1.69
Al Simmons	307	144	109	44	10	534	1.74
Rogers Hornsby	301	152	92	45	12	519	1.72
Chuck Klein	300	140	108	45	7	519	1.73
Jimmy Wynn	290	168	85	33	4	453	1.56
Bob Johnson	288	148	93	39	8	483	1.68
DelEnnis	288	130	111	41	6	499	1.74
Hank Sauer	288	154	91	39	4	469	1.63
FrankThomas	286	160	92	30	4	450	1.57
Ken Boyer	282	159	92	24	7	443	1.57
Reggie Jackson	281	160	83	34	4	444	1.58
Ted Kluzsewski	279	156	95	25	3	433	1.55
Rudy York	277	133	81	51	12	496	1.78
TonyPerez	277	137	106	30	4	455	1.64
Roger Mans	275	148	90	32	5	444	1.61
Lee May	273	150	83	33	7	443	1.62
Brooks Robinson	267	154	74	33	6	425	1.59
VicWertz	266	120	88	48	10	480	1.80
Bobby Thomson	264	142	88	26	8	428	1.62
Willie Horton	262	135	77	44	6	445	1.70
Bob Allison	256	147	76	28	5	403	1.57
Johnny Bench	256	124	81	45	6	445	1.74
Vada Pinson	256	148	70	30	8	410	1.60