Deane: 2014 Hall of Fame election forecast

From SABR member Bill Deane at Baseball Past and Present on December 16, 2013:

In 2013, for only the second time since 1971, the baseball writers failed to select anyone for enshrinement into the Hall of Fame.  Most observers think this was an aberration, and that there may be as many as five people elected to the Hall in 2014, with plenty more to follow.  After all, Craig Biggio and Jack Morris were each just 7% short of making it last time, Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza were not far behind, and newcomers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Frank Thomas should be shoo-ins.

Yet, according to my crystal baseball, 2013 was the start of a clear trend on the writers’ ballot, and only one of these stars will make it to Cooperstown in ’14.

This is my 33rd year predicting Hall of Fame elections.  I think the acid test of prognostication performance lies in guessing the fate of men who finish within 10% either way of being elected (i.e., who receive between 65-85% of the vote).  Among such candidates, I have gone 50-12 (.806) in correctly predicting who would or would not make it over the years.  I was one of the few who correctly, publicly forecast the 2013 shutout.

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Originally published: December 16, 2013. Last Updated: December 16, 2013.