From SABR member Bill Deane at WordPress on December 2, 2018:
For most baseball fans, autumn means the playoffs, awards, and winter meetings. For me, it means it’s time for my annual Hall of Fame election forecast. I’ve been predicting the elections for 37 years now, and despite some rough roads recently, hold an 80% success rate (60-15) in guessing who would or would not make it among candidates receiving between 65-85% of the vote.
A review of the voting process: Members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) do the voting. Late each fall, ballots are distributed to beat-writers who have been BBWAA members for ten years or more, and are either active or retired no more than ten years. The ballots, which are to be returned by the end of the year, list candidates in alphabetical order, instructing voters to choose up to ten players. Eligible candidates include men who played in at least ten seasons in the majors, the last of which was not less than five nor more than 15 years prior to the election. Any candidate being named on at least 75% of the ballots is elected to the Hall; anyone receiving less than 5% of the vote is dropped from further consideration. The BBWAA honors an average of about two players per year (more lately). The 2019 results will be announced on January 22.
Read the full article here: https://dizzydeane.wordpress.com/2018/12/02/the-2019-hall-of-fame-election-forecast/
Originally published: December 6, 2018. Last Updated: December 6, 2018.