From John Erardi at Cincinnati.com on December 2, 2011, with mention of SABR member Bill Deane:
Bill Deane, the preeminent expert on Baseball Hall of Fame voting patterns, predicts that former Reds great Barry Larkin will be elected to Cooperstown in 2012 with 79 percent of the vote.
The Hall of Fame ballots were mailed this week to the 600+ voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America, and are due back in by New Year’s Day.
Results of the vote will be announced Jan. 9. Seventy-five percent is needed for election; Larkin received 62.1 percent last year in his second year on the ballot.
If elected, Larkin would be the first Red to make the Baseball Hall of Fame since July 2000 (Tony Perez, Sparky Anderson and 19th century second baseman Bid McPhee), and likely would be the last one to make it for at least another 15-20 years — and that’s if Joey Votto keeps bashing the ball like he has for at least another decade.
Deane’s record in predicting who makes it in which year is 47-12 (.797), meaning he’s been right about 8 out of every 10 times over the last 30 years.
Originally published: December 5, 2011. Last Updated: December 5, 2011.