From Jordan Wallach at Beyond the Box Score on May 8, 2015:
[Editor’s Note: Jordan Wallach will be joining BtBS as a contributor. Jordan worked on this case with the other authors named below. This manuscript was created before the 2015 season began. It has, however, been slightly edited by the BtBS staff for presentation here. We are happy to present it.]
2015 Diamond Dollars Case Competition:
Developing a Trade Machine to Determine the Optimal Cole Hamels Trade
Jordan Wallach, Avner Kreps, Vihan Lakshman, Do-Hyoung Park, Alec Powell
This year, the competition’s prompt was to develop two trade scenarios for Cole Hamels, optimizing the value added to both the Phillies and their trade partner. (Note: We were told to ignore Hamels’ personal preferences – geographic and team – as well as any no-trade or limited trade clauses in his current contract.)
Right off the bat, we broke the case down into three parts:
- How do we project the performance of Cole Hamels and traded prospects over the coming seasons?
- How do we quantify a team’s improvement upon the addition of Hamels?
- Can we develop a metric to evaluate the value of a trade to both the Phillies and their trade partner?
Originally published: May 8, 2015. Last Updated: May 8, 2015.