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From SABR member Aaron Gleeman at Baseball Prospectus on June 20, 2018: PECOTA is designed to produce a wide range of projections for each player, from the 10th percentile all the way to the 90th percentile, with the weighted mean typically drawing the most attention as the “official” one-stop-shopping projection. For instance, Jose Altuve is […]

From SABR member Aaron Gleeman at Baseball Prospectus on March 1, 2018: Last year around this time, I compared PECOTA’s projected team records with Bovada’s over/under team win totals. For nearly half of all teams—14 of 30, to be exact—PECOTA and Bovada were within 2.5 wins of each other, which I defined as being in […]

From SABR member Colin Wyers at Baseball Prospectus on February 8, 2012: PECOTA has arrived. BP’s projection system, at its core, follows the same basic principles as it has before. We begin with our baseline projections, which start with a weighted average of past performance, with decreasing emphasis placed on seasons further removed from the […]

From SABR member Rob Mains at Baseball Prospectus on February 11, 2020: The provenance of the quote “I don’t care what people say about me as long as they spell my name right” is murky. George M. Cohan is said to have said something like it. So is P.T. Barnum. Maybe it was Will Rogers, […]

From SABR member Steven Goldman at Baseball Prospectus on February 7, 2020: PECOTA is not HAL. It has no personality. It is no threat to murder an astronaut. When we ask it for a prediction, there is no long, pregnant silence emanating from its cycloptic red eye before it replies, with an ominously flat affect, […]

From Mike Gianella and SABR member Rob McQuown at Baseball Prospectus on January 29, 2015: Welcome to PECOTA day, sponsored by DraftKings. Premium subscribers can now download the 2015 Weighted Means Spreadsheet under the Fantasy tab at the top of this page, or by clicking “manage your profile.” Player pages have been updated with these […]

From SABR member Rob Mains at Baseball Prospectus on February 7, 2019: Baseball Prospectus first published PECOTA projections for players and teams in 2003. In the ensuing 16 seasons, through last year, we projected that the Pirates would win 1,202 games. The Pirates, since 2003, have, in fact, won 1,201 games. Good job, PECOTA! That […]

From SABR member Ben Lindbergh and Colin Wyers at Baseball Prospectus on February 21, 2013: When the PECOTA spreadsheet appears, one of the first things people do is pick out the players projected to make the greatest gains or suffer the largest declines. Then the questions start: Why does PECOTA like/dislike so-and-so so much? Is […]