2026 SABR Analytics: Watch highlights from Players We Love in 2026 Panel
At the SABR Analytics Conference on Saturday, February 28, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona, the Players We Love in 2026 Panel focused on
Panelists included: Dave Adler of Baseball HQ; writer/podcaster Derek Carty; Jason Collette of Rotowire; Eno Sarris of The Athletic; and moderator Derek VanRiper of The Athletic.
Here are some highlights from the panel:
Favorite American League hitter this year
Adler: “I’m really looking forward to seeing what [New York Yankees infielder] Ben Rice does this year. It’s not going to be a surprise. He did pretty well last year, with 26 home runs. He really came onto the scene. But there are signs that he’s going to do even better this year. He’s only 27 years old, but he raised his contact rate, he really cut down on the strikeouts during the year, particularly in the second half. Batting average went up quite a bit. Importantly for his power, his exit velocity went up. He ended up with an average of 93.3 mph, which was ninth in Major League Baseball. And the associated things, his hard-hit contact rate went up quite a bit, and he did better against lefties. So I’m really looking for a breakout from Ben Rice this year.”
American League pitchers we love this year
Carty: “The guy I’m looking at is José Soriano [of the Los Angeles Angels]. I recently released a new version of my projection system, THE BAT X, that uses Statcast data for pitchers. I built my own stuff, essentially a model using velocity, movement, spin, tunneling, all kinds of stuff like that. It really likes José Soriano. He doesn’t strike me as a guy who has traditionally great stuff. He throws hard, but he’s not blowing guys away. He’s not generating tons of swings and misses, but when you look at the whole profile and all of the different outcomes he gets from his pitches, he profiles really, really well. You look at his FanGraphs page, he has an 8 K/9 [ratio], a 4 BB/9, it kind of looks like a mediocre profile. But then you look at his groundball rate, and it’s like 65% — the highest rate in baseball — while still generating swings and misses at a reasonable level. This just puts him on a level that very few guys are.”
Collette: “Jack Leiter [of the Texas Rangers]. What really impressed me last year is how he made adjustments in-season, especially towards the second half. Really leveraging more, cutting back on the sinker, going more with the fastball usage, and changing the way he was approaching guys. By the end of the season, posting average to above-average whiff rates on all his pitches, and that’s the kind of growth you want to see from somebody. When they get that first level of adversity, and then have to make that adjustment, I was just super impressed with that adjustment he made and expect some big things from him this year.”
Relievers we love this year
Carty: “I like Fernando Cruz [of the New York Yankees]. If he were to only throw a splitter, not taking into account predictability and sequencing effects, just the pure quality of the pitch is a 2.03 ERA. Which is just insanely, insanely good, and he throws it 60% of the time. So he has this pitch that’s one of the best in baseball, and he throws it a lot. If I run the model back to 2020, there have only been three better splitters that have profiled better than Fernando Cruz’s. … He’s 35 years old. He’s not a household name. Not really going to be in the mix for saves for the Yankees, but I think he’s going to be a very valuable part of that bullpen and maybe one of the better relievers in the AL. THE BAT X is projecting a 12.4 K/9 and a 3.40 ERA out of him on the whole, so I think Cruz is one of the more unsung relievers in baseball right now.”
On players who “break” the projection model
Sarris: “The players that break, or don’t work inside your model, are intriguing as well. You have to investigate them. I think from an organizational standpoint, it would behoove you if you say, “These are our KPIs, and these are the things that we believe in, and there are also these other guys that are really interesting, and we can’t let them go.” There’s that one guy in the room saying, “We have to just take him!” Even if the model says he’s wrong, we have to leave open the fact that we could be wrong.”
On projection models during the era of the Automatic Balls and Strikes system (ABS)
Sarris: “Because this isn’t going to be a full ABS, I think a good framing catcher can still steal you a couple of strikes at the top of the zone. They’re not going to be able to challenge every single one, but it’s clear to me that the top of the strike zone is where the battle will be. If you can hit the corners, there are actually some new strikes that will be there, but across the top and in the middle of the strike zone, you’re going to lose some strikes as a pitcher. I think a lot of this stuff is going to be important for the entire league, and maybe not as important for any one player in the end.”
Transcription assistance from Dazhane Moseley.
For more coverage of the 2026 SABR Analytics Conference, visit SABR.org/analytics.
Originally published: May 1, 2026. Last Updated: March 4, 2026.