The Babe as a Pitcher

Everybody knows Babe Ruth started out as a pitcher and was quite successful, but how successful? Would he have made the Hall of Fame if he had not shifted to the outfield?

I use a method called player wins, which is calculated from batting, pitching, and fielding stats. These are converted to runs above average and converted to wins above average using 10 runs per win. An average player gets a rating of zero. These are different from pitching wins and losses, although you can get a rough estimate of player wins by taking pitching wins minus losses all over two. For example, in 1917 Ruth had a 24-13 record, which would calculate to (24-13)/2 or 5.5 player wins. His actual rating was 4.9, lower mainly because he had a strong batting team behind him that got credit for some of the pitching wins.

Looking at Ruth’s record, you could make a good case that he had the best start of any pitcher through his first four years of at least 100 innings pitched per year in the modern era (from 1893, when the pitching distance was moved to its current value.) Before then, pitchers tended to pitch many more innings and had shorter careers. After not pitching for nine years, Ruth managed two complete-game victories (in 1930 and 1933), with an earned-run average better than the league average.

Year	Team	LG	W-L	G	IP	ERA	WAR
1914	Bos	AL	2-1	4	23	3.91	-0.3
1915	Bos	AL	18-8	32	218	2.44	2.8
1916	Bos	AL	23-12	44	324	1.75	5.7
1917	Bos	AL	24-13	41	326	2.01	4.9
1918	Bos	AL	13-7	20	166	2.22	3.1
1919	Bos	AL	9-5	17	133	2.97	1.3
1920	NY	AL	1-0	1	4	4.5	-0.1
1921	NY	AL	2-0	2	9	9	-0.6
1930	NY	AL	1-0	1	9	3	0.3
1933	NY	AL	1-0	1	9	5	0
10yrs			94-46	163	1221	2.28	17.1

 

Ruth was in the process of converting to the outfield in 1918, so I doubled his wins that year in the four-year table, 6.2 instead of 3.1, which made his four-year total 19.6. This table shows all pitchers who had at least 11 wins in their first four years. I also added earlier pitchers who had 20 or more.

 

Name	1st	Team	League	WAR 1-4	WAR total	Age
Babe Ruth	1915	Bos	AL	19.6	17.1	20
Wes Ferrell	1929	Cle	AL	18.2	31.1	21
Bob Lemon	1947	Cle	AL	17.1	34.2	27
Bob Feller	1937	Cle	AL	16.3	31.6	19
Joe Wood	1909	Bos	AL	15.6	21.3	20
Lon Warneke	1932	Chi	NL	15.6	22.6	23
Tom Seaver	1967	NY	NL	15.2	49.5	23
Rich Gossage	1975	Chi	AL	14.9	29.7	24
Dizzy Dean	1932	StL	NL	14.8	22.3	22
Adam Wainwright	2007	StL	NL	14.6	21	26
Christy Mathewson	1901	NY	NL	14.5	56.3	21
Ron Guidry	1977	NY	AL	14.2	20.5	27
Dwight Gooden	1984	NY	NL	14.1	18.4	20
Mel Parnell	1948	Bos	AL	13.8	15.5	26
Johan Santana	2000	Min	AL	13.6	27.9	23
Roger Clemens	1984	Bos	AL	13.4	73.6	22
Kevin Appier	1990	KC	AL	12.9	20.3	23
Johnny Antonelli	1953	Mil	NL	12.5	15.4	23
Frank Tanana	1974	Cal	AL	12.2	12.8	21
Mike Mussina	1992	Bal	AL	12.2	36.5	24
Gary Peters	1963	Chi	AL	12.1	12.7	26
Teddy Higuera	1985	Mil	AL	12.1	10.8	28
Curt Davis	1934	Phi	NL	12	18.2	31
Vic Willis	1898	Bos	NL	11.9	20	22
Claude Hendrix	1912	Pit	NL	11.9	14.3	22
Don Drysdale	1957	Bro	NL	11.9	32.4	21
Ed Reulbach	1905	Chi	NL	11.8	17.3	23
Bob Gibson	1961	StL	NL	11.7	45	26
Grover Alexander	1911	Phi	NL	11.6	62.9	25
Remy Kremer	1924	Pit	NL	11.4	10.6	31
Tex Hughson	1942	Bos	AL	11.4	10.4	26
Mordecai Brown	1903	StL	NL	11.3	32.7	27
Jeff Pfeffer	1914	Bro	NL	11.2	12.2	26
Dazzy Vance	1922	Bro	NL	11.2	29.2	31
Ned Garver	1948	StL	AL	11.2	15.2	23
Carlos Zambrano	2002	Chi	NL	11.2	19.3	21
Mike Garcia	1949	Cle	AL	11.1	15.7	26
Noodles Hahn	1899	Cin	NL	11	17	20
Frank Sullivan	1954	Bos	AL	11	8.2	24
pre-1893
Charley Radbourn	1881	Pro	NL	23.6	31.6	27
Silver King	1887	StL	AA	23.5	22.9	19
Bob Caruthers	1885	StL	AA	23.1	30	21
John Clarkson	1885	Chi	NL	21.2	42.5	23

 

Looking at the data, the average career totals for these pitchers was about double their initial value, which would mean that 40 wins for a career would be a reasonable projection for Ruth.

The top pitchers based on wins are shown below. Roger Clemens is the only one with 40 or more wins not in the Hall of Fame. As you can see there are plenty of members with a career total in the range of Ruth’s four-year record.

Top ranked pitchers

1. Walter Johnson 89.9 in
2. Cy Young 77.0 in
3. Roger Clemens 73.6
4. Greg Maddux 64.2 in
5. Grover Alexander 62.9 in
6. Mariano Rivera 61.9 in
7. Lefty Grove 59.1 in
8. Christy Mathewson 56.3 in
9. Kid Nichols 56.2 in
10. Warren Spahn 51.4 in
11. Pedro Martinez 49.5 in
12. Tom Seaver 49.5 in
13. Randy Johnson 49.1 in
14. Bob Gibson 45.0 in
15. John Clarkson 42.5 in
16. Tom Glavine 40.8 in
17. Carl Hubbell 40.2 in
18. Clayton Kershaw 39.9 active (2019)
19. John Smoltz 38.0 in
20. Ed Walsh 37.6 in
21. Whitey Ford 37.2 in
22. Hal Newhouser 37.2 in
23. Hoyt Wilhelm 37.1 in
24. Amos Rusie 36.7 in
25. Mike Mussina 36.5 in
26. Jim Palmer 35.0 in
27. Steve Carlton 34.0 in
28. Bob Lemon 34.0 in
29. Kevin Brown 33.7
30. Bob Caruthers 33.6
31. Ted Lyons 33.5 in
32. Gaylord Perry 32.9 in
33. Mordecai Brown 32.7 in
34. Don Drysdale 32.4 in
35. Curt Schilling 32.1
36. Zach Greinke 32.0 active (2019)
37. Bert Blyleven 31.8 in
38. Carl Mays 31.7
39. Bob Feller 31.6 in
40. Charley Radbourn 31.5 in
41. Red Ruffing 31.4 in
42. Billy Wagner 31.3
43. Roy Halladay 31.3 in
44. Wes Ferrell 31.2
45. Dennis Eckersley 30.5 in
46. Fergie Jenkins 30.4 in
47. Eddie Plank 30.3 in
48. Robin Roberts 30.3 in
49. Tony Mullane 30.0

Other Hall of Famers

• Rich Gossage 29.7
• Trevor Hoffman 29.2
• Dazzy Vance 29.2
• Phil Niekro 29.1
• Clark Griffith 28.3
• Juan Marichal 27.7
• Stan Coveleski 26.0
• Eppa Rixey 24.2
• Al Spalding 23.9
• Red Faber 23.4
• Addie Joss 23.0
• Rollie Fingers 22.7
• Dizzy Dean 22.3
• Sandy Koufax 22.3
• Nolan Ryan 22.2
• Rube Waddell 22.2
• Lefty Gomez 20.1
• Vic Willis 20.0
• Early Wynn 19.5
• Joe McGinnity 18.9
• Mickey Welch 18.9
• Bruce Sutter 18.5
• Burleigh Grimes 18.3
• Don Sutton 17.5
• Jim Bunning 16.4
• Waite Hoyt 15.7
• Chief Bender 14.8
• Jack Chesbro 11.0
• Jim Galvin 9.8
• Catfish Hunter 9.8
• Jack Morris 9.3
• Jesse Haines 7.3
• Herb Pennock 7.3
• Rube Marquard 0.5

Thus there is no doubt in my mind that Ruth would have been elected to the Hall of Fame as a pitcher if he had not moved to the outfield. In fact, it would not be hard to imagine that he could have ended up in the top 10 for his career.

PETE PALMER is the co-author with John Thorn of The Hidden Game of Baseball and co-editor with Gary Gillette of the Barnes and Noble ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia (five editions). Pete worked as a consultant to Sports Information Center, the official statisticians for the American League from 1976 to 1987. Pete introduced on-base average as an official statistic for the American League in 1979 and invented on-base plus slugging (OPS), now universally used as a good measure of batting strength. He won the SABR Bob Davids Award in 1989 and was selected by the SABR in 2010 as a charter member of the Henry Chadwick Award. Pete was given a lifetime achievement award by SABR in 2018. Pete also edited with John Thorn seven editions of Total Baseball. He previously edited four editions of the Barnes Official Encyclopedia of Baseball (1974-79). A member of SABR since 1973, Pete was also the editor of Who’s Who in Baseball, which celebrated its 101st and last year in 2016.