Fitzpatrick: How college group discovered the best Cole Hamels trade at SABR Analytics

From Frank Fitzpatrick at on April 2, 2015:

Maybe now we know why, despite an offseason rife with speculation, the Phillies haven’t yet traded Cole Hamels.

After all, it took five Arizona State grad students using two computer models and countless statistical metrics more than 60 hours over five days to devise what a panel of baseball experts judged the best possible deal for the Phillies ace.

Their winning proposal, selected from among all those formulated by 21 teams of collegians, had Boston sending Philadelphia pitchers Henry Owens and Eduardo Rodriquez, plus outfielder Manuel Margot.

“[The Phillies would] add two quality arms and a promising outfielder, all of which are Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects,” said Cody Callahan, 22, who captained the winners.

“However, the most significant reason we chose this trade is because of the value it will bring the Red Sox. . . . The Red Sox have the most to gain by adding Hamels.”

The competitors in the Diamond Dollars Case Competition at March’s Society for American Baseball Research Analytics Conference in Phoenix were asked to come up with as close to an ideal Hamels trade as possible.

The ASU group’s second best option – and for virtually the same reasons as the Boston deal – involved sending Hamels to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for outfielder Kyle Schwarber and pitchers Pierce Johnson and Duane Underwood.

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Originally published: April 3, 2015. Last Updated: April 3, 2015.