SABR 52: Research Presentations
Learn more about our SABR 52 research presentations on this page. Click here to learn more about the poster presentations on display at SABR 52.
Visit SABR.org/convention for more information on the 2024 SABR convention. All baseball fans are welcome to attend SABR 52.
Thursday, August 8
2:00 p.m.-2:25 p.m. (Great Lakes B/C)
RP01: Building a WPA Ballpark: Baseball and the New Deal, 1934-1942
Anthony Salazar
When Franklin D. Roosevelt took the oath of office as the new President of the United States in 1932, the country continued to reel from the throes of the Great Depression. Hoping to combat the helplessness Americans felt, the FDR Administration launched a series of programs that served to get the nation back on its feet. The Works Progress Administration (WPA) was the largest New Deal agency employing millions of people from all walks of life, where citizens were hired to paint murals and write stories, build bridges and roads, construct tunnels, and build ballparks in rural and suburban communities. From approximately 1934 to 1940, over 80 ballparks were built by WPA workers in communities in every corner of the United States. Salazar presents a series of mini-biographies providing a historical and social context on the construction of these ballparks and what they meant to their communities, where a handful of the structures remain today, the 90th anniversary of the first construction.
Anthony Salazar <salazar8017@gmail.com> is the chair of SABR’s Latino Baseball Committee, and has written and presented on various topics in Latino baseball history, including research for documentary companies looking to promote Latino baseball. Salazar has been an active leader in the Pacific Northwest Chapter and is a former SABR Board member.</salazar8017@gmail.com>
2:00 p.m.-2:25 p.m. (Great Lakes A)
RP02: The Pitcher’s Cycle: Definition and Achievers (1893-2023)
Herm Krabbenhoft
One of baseball’s highly-regarded feats is the cycle. Throughout AL/NL history from 1876-2023, there have been 344 documented regular-season cycles. Not even one pitcher has achieved the feat and, because of the designated hitter, few will get a chance again. Thus, the “baseball” cycle has become a de facto “Batter’s Cycle” (BC). What about a “Pitcher’s Cycle” (PC)? Krabbenhoft devises a Pitcher’s Cycle, identifies all players who achieved a PC from 1893 — when the current 60’6” distance between the pitcher’s rubber and home plate was instituted — through 2023. He will discuss those who have completed either type of cycle – or both! He defines a Pitcher’s Cycle and why we’ve seen more of them in recent years than the past, with a focus on players who have completed both over the course of their careers.
Herm Krabbenhoft <bqr9343@aol.com>, a retired organic chemist, has been a SABR member since 1981. Among the various baseball research topics he has pioneered are: Ultimate Grand Slam Homers, Consecutive Games On Base Safely (CGOBS) Streaks, Quasi-Cycles, Imperfect Perfectos, Minor League Day-In/Day-Out Double-Duty Diamondeers, Downtown Golden Sombreros. Herm is the author of Leadoff Batters of Major League Baseball (McFarland, 2001). Krabbenhoft has received a SABR Baseball Research Award three times (1992, 1996, 2013). He is a lifetime Detroit Tigers fan; the Tigers’ Zeb Eaton hit a pinch grand slam against the Yankees on the day Herm was born.</bqr9343@aol.com>
2:30 p.m.-2:55 p.m. (Great Lakes B/C)
RP03: Bonnie Serrell Goes to Mexico
Barry Mednick
In April 1945, 25-year-old Negro League all-star Bonnie Serrell suddenly bolted to Mexico. Why? What happened when he got there? Mednick interviewed Serrell and discussed the cultural transition that Serrell and other Black players experienced as well as Jorge Pascual’s attempt to develop a third major league. Serrell was an above-average hitter with decent power and speed. He excelled in the field, and Buck O’Neil nicknamed Serrell “The Vacuum Cleaner” because “he left no dust on the infield.” Mednick talks about how Serrell had mixed feelings and second thoughts about the move, but in the end, Serrell made a great impression and enjoyed his time south of the border, affectionately dubbed “El Grillo” (The Cricket) by his Mexican fans.
Barry Mednick <bmednick@adelphia.net> joined SABR in 1983 and has attended more than 30 conventions. He performs quality control for a high-tech company in Orange County, California. He shares his life with his wife Leslee and daughter Leslie.</bmednick@adelphia.net>
2:30 p.m.-2:55 p.m. (Great Lakes A)
RP04: The Mayor Was A Salesman: Charles Bronfman and the Montreal Expos, 1969 to 1990
Maxwell Kates
The year was 1968. Having witnessed the impact of the Canadian centennial celebration, Expo 67, and Trudeaumania, 37-year-old Charles Rosner Bronfman aspired to become one of ten investors in mayor Jean Drapeau’s latest grand project: a major league baseball team for Montreal and Canada. Yet, in his 22 years with the Expos, the team reached the playoffs only once, a National League East Division title in 1981. Kates uses primary and secondary source material along with statistical analysis to chronicle the obstacles Bronfman overcame to assume ownership of the Expos and to narrate their progression as a National League franchise. In particular, he addresses why, even as the “Team of the 80s,” the Expos failed to win a championship.
Maxwell Kates <maxwelliankates@hotmail.com> is a chartered accountant who lives and works in Toronto. He has worked in commercial radio in St. Catharines, Ontario, and more recently, he wrote a monthly column for the Houston-based Pecan Park Eagle. Maxwell’s articles and essays have appeared in four issues of The National Pastime, and in 2018, he and Bill Nowlin co-edited Time for Expansion Baseball. His speaking engagements include SABR meetings and conventions in Seattle, Montreal, Houston, and Baltimore, along with three reports at the Canadian Baseball History Conference. His presentation on Charles Bronfman and the Montreal Expos is based on an essay originally published in Our Game, Too, a SABR anthology about the history of baseball in Canada.</maxwelliankates@hotmail.com>
3:00 p.m.-3:25 p.m. (Great Lakes B/C)
RP05: Josh Gibson Achieves Great Home Run Feats, 1930-1946
Alan Cohen
Josh Gibson first set foot in a big-league park as a 19-year-old in 1930, as a member of the Homestead Grays. Over the course of the next 16 years, he hit at least one home run in 17 of the big-league ballparks in which he played, including a very noteworthy homer in the Bronx. Gibson hit homers in more than 90 ballparks, large and small. His first Yankee Stadium homers came on September 27. The second of those shots was said to have gone completely out of the ballpark. The fact is that nobody had ever hit a home run to the distant left-center field bleachers before Gibson, and few after. Cohen also discusses how, although Gibson’s home run feats at big-league parks were impressive, his legend was cemented wherever he played.
Alan Cohen <adc0317@comcast.net> has been a member of SABR since 2011. He chairs the SABR BioProject fact-checking committee, is an officer in the Connecticut Smoky Joe Wood Chapter, and is a datacaster (MiLB stringer) with the Hartford Yard Goats, Double-A affiliate of the Colorado Rockies. He volunteers with the Retrosheet Negro Leagues project and with SABR’s Negro League Committee. His biographies, game stories, and essays have appeared in more than 70 baseball-related publications. He has four children, nine grandchildren, and one great-grandchild, and resides in Connecticut with wife Frances, their cats Zoe and Ava, and their dog Buddy.</adc0317@comcast.net>
3:00 p.m.-3:25 p.m. (Great Lakes A)
RP06: Ten-Cent Beer Night: A Date Which Will Live in Infamy
Vince Guerrieri
The summer of 2024 marks the 50th anniversary of Ten-Cent Beer Night in Cleveland. Although a popular promotion within major league and minor league baseball, it went wrong in 1974, with a larger-than-expected crowd that was not there to watch the game. After a full night of shenanigans, the game ended in forfeit with the Indians on the verge of a comeback. Guerrieri shows the context of both teams, who were terrible and had met a week earlier in a series that included a fight that set the stage for the game, along with the game’s aftermath.
Vince Guerrieri <vaguerrieri@gmail.com> is an award-winning journalist whose writing also appears regularly in various regional and national magazines and online publications. A native of Youngstown and graduate of Bowling Green State University, he is the author of three books on Ohio sports history. He is the secretary-treasurer for the Jack Graney SABR chapter in Cleveland.</vaguerrieri@gmail.com>
3:30 p.m.-3:55 p.m. (Great Lakes B/C)
RP07: When the Wealthiest Arm in Baseball Belonged to Satchel Paige
Matt Jacob
During the era when professional baseball was segregated, Negro League players typically earned salaries that were well below those of their major-league peers. Yet there was one anomaly during this prolonged period of inequity. Growing evidence suggests that in the early 1940s, Satchel Paige was the highest-paid pitcher in all of professional baseball — Black or white. Jacob sifts through extensive source material, revealing information contradicting past research. The asterisk on Paige’s high income is that his baseball earnings came through a variety of gigs instead of a single contract. Abe Saperstein, founder of the Harlem Globetrotters basketball team, played a key role by serving as Paige’s business agent, often negotiating the compensation received by the Black superstar for barnstorming games. Paige’s talent, his undaunted nature, and his assertive agent combined to achieve his high earnings.
Matt Jacob <mattlivesindc@gmail.com> is a member of the Bob Davids Chapter of SABR. He is a public health consultant and the author of two books. The second of those two books is Globetrotter: How Abe Saperstein Shook Up the World of Sports, which will be published in October 2024 by Rowman & Littlefield. This biography explores the life of Saperstein, who founded the Harlem Globetrotters basketball team and helped to hasten the integration of baseball’s major leagues. Matt collects baseball press passes and other sports memorabilia from the 20th century. He lives in Arlington, Virginia.</mattlivesindc@gmail.com>
3:30 p.m.-3:55 p.m. (Great Lakes A)
RP08: Baseball and the Communist Press
Joseph Marren
In an age when Black people could not even be buried in the same cemeteries as whites in some places, sports was one way to prove that Black athletes could compete equally with white athletes. While it’s true that baseball was among the leaders in integration, everything in baseball still depended on what city a team was in and that team’s management. Baseball lore and Hollywood hagiography built the story that Brooklyn Dodgers President Branch Rickey was the architect behind the modern integration of baseball. Yet that isn’t completely true. Marren offers some revision to the role Rickey played and discusses the reporting done by the Daily Worker, the newspaper of the American Communist Party, specifically in the 1930s and 1940s. His focus begins with Daily Worker sports editor Lester Rodney, who was hired just before the sports page was introduced in 1936, particularly Rodney’s stories and columns, as well as other Daily Worker content and advertisements.
Joe Marren <marrenjj@buffalostate.edu> is an emeritus professor in the Communication Department at SUNY Buffalo State University. He is a 1986 summa cum laude graduate of Buffalo State and majored in journalism and history and minored in anthropology. His master’s degree is in history from St. Bonaventure University. Marren teaches journalism theory and praxis courses in the Communication Department. Since 2018 he has also taught religious studies classes in the Philosophy Department. Prior to his academic career, he was a newspaper reporter for seven years and an editor for another 11 at various community newspapers in Western New York, winning several state and national awards.</marrenjj@buffalostate.edu>
Friday, August 9
11:00 a.m.-11:25 a.m. (Great Lakes B/C)
RP09: Where Did the 24 Minutes Go?
David W. Smith
The average MLB game was 24 minutes shorter in 2023 than in 2022, coming in at 2:40. This is the fastest time since 1985 and the first year the average has been under three hours since 2015. The implementation of the pitch clock received most of the media attention as an explanation for the shorter game length, but it is not the only factor that brought about the decrease. There were also rule changes relating to pickoff attempts, limitations on batters calling timeout, and stricter enforcement of time between innings, during mound visits, replay challenges, and substitutions. Smith examines these other factors in addition to the effect of the pitch clock. Analyzing data obtained from mlb.com, where freely available files give the exact timing of every event in every 2023 game, including each pitch, down to 1/100 of a second, he discusses the impact of different events on game times.
David W. Smith <dwsmith@retrosheet.org> joined SABR in 1977 and has multiple papers in the Baseball Research Journal. He has made research presentations at 25 national SABR conventions and many more at regional meetings. In 2001 at SABR 31, he won the USA Today Sports Weekly Award (now the Doug Pappas Award) and in 2016 he won the Doug Pappas Award. In 2005 he received SABR’s highest honor, the Bob Davids Award, and in 2012 he was honored with the Henry Chadwick Award. He is the founder and first President of Retrosheet and is an Emeritus Professor of Biology after 40 years of service at the University of Delaware.</dwsmith@retrosheet.org>
11:00 a.m.-11:25 a.m. (Great Lakes A)
RP10: Town to Travel: A History of Youth Baseball
John W. Miller
Miller surveys the history of youth baseball from the 19h century to modern private clubs (often euphemistically called “travel” clubs), with a focus on costs and economics. Miller illuminates the multi-billion-dollar youth baseball sector, surveying the history of youth clubs in the 19th century, American Legion and Little League, and baseball schools. He includes fresh 19th-century archival research, along with his experience of four years as the head coach of a private (“travel”) team in the Pittsburgh suburbs.
John W. Miller <jmjournalist@gmail.com> is a Pittsburgh-based writer and baseball coach. He is a contributing writer at America Magazine, staff writer at Trade Data Monitor, and former global correspondent for the Wall Street Journal. He has worked as a scout for the Orioles, served as Little League commissioner for Belgium, and is an assistant baseball coach at Allderdice High School in Pittsburgh. His first book, The Last Manager, a biography of Earl Weaver, will be out in spring 2025.</jmjournalist@gmail.com>
11:30 a.m.-11:55 a.m. (Great Lakes B/C)
RP11: Ron Guidry When Billy Martin Managed vs. When Someone Else Managed
Rick Solomon
Do managers have an effect on the success of pitchers? A straightforward way to investigate this question is by comparing the hurler’s record under a specified manager with his record under others. Solomon uses this method to examine the intersection of Ron Guidry and Billy Martin. In Martin’s on-and-off tenure at the helm of the Yankees, he ran the club during all three of Guidry’s 20-win seasons (well, 94 games in 1978, all of 1983, and nine-tenths of 1985). In addition to Retrosheet game reports, Solomon examines the words of Guidry’s pitching coaches and catchers, and perhaps “Louisiana Lightning” himself.
A member of SABR and the Northwest Chapter since 2002, Rick Solomon <ricksolomon192@gmail.com> served as Northwest Chapter president for four years. Rick practiced personal injury law for 40 years mostly in the Seattle area. A three-time president of the Puget Sound Civil War Roundtable and member of the Board of Directors of the Buffalo Soldier Museum in Tacoma, Washington, Rick received a B.A. in History from Lafayette College and his J.D. from Case Western Reserve University. He lives in Seattle with his girlfriend Tia and their two cats, Peyton Manning and Buster Posey. He is working on a historical fiction novel in which Jerry Garcia and Yogi Berra have adventures together.</ricksolomon192@gmail.com>
11:30 a.m.-11:55 a.m. (Great Lakes A)
RP12: Harry Simmons: “So You Think You Know Baseball!”
David Simmons
At SABR 51, we learned about Harry Simmons, who single-handedly (and by hand!) built the AL and NL schedules for three decades. This year, we will hear about another aspect of Simmons’s remarkable career in baseball – his dozen years writing the weekly Saturday Evening Post series “So You Think You Know Baseball!” Each article posited a game scenario and asked readers to consider how the umpires would call the play; the correct answer appeared near the back of the magazine. Its first appearance in June 1949 elicited thousands of reader disagreements with the still-controversial “fourth out rule.” In addition to its entertainment value, the column contributed significantly to efforts, beginning in 1950, to clarify and revise the Rules of the Game.
David Simmons <davezxc@yahoo.com> is a retired engineer who currently lives in Toronto, Canada. He was fortunate to be the son of Harry Simmons, who was a baseball executive, historian, and author. He attended many World Series games and All-Star Games with his father during the 1950s and 1960s. He donated his father’s extensive collection of papers, books, and baseball memorabilia to the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame in 1998. In the past he has been a fan of the Boston Red Sox and Montreal Expos, and he currently roots for the Toronto Blue Jays.</davezxc@yahoo.com>
2:00 p.m.-2:25 p.m. (Great Lakes B/C)
RP13: Peak Minors: 1949
Chuck Hildebrandt
As much as major league baseball has changed in the last century and a half, the transformations in the minors may be even greater. From independent competitors to farm systems, the minors have undergone a significant evolution. Hildebrandt argues that the minor leagues reached their pinnacle in 1949; there were more teams and more leagues under the umbrella of Organized Baseball immediately after World War II than at any time before or since. However, the minor leagues’ place in the American mind quickly faded over the next decade. In describing both the rise and the fall of minor league baseball, Hildebrandt observes the reflection of a rapidly changing country in a rapidly changing world.
Chuck Hildebrandt <chuck.sabr@gmail.com> is a previous winner of both the Doug Pappas Award for best oral research presentation (“‘Little League Home Runs’ in MLB History”, 2015; “Does Changing Leagues Affect Player Performance, and How?”, 2017) and SABR Convention Poster Presentation Award (“Long-Tenured Teammates on Big League Teams”, 2023). Chuck has authored four articles for the Baseball Research Journal and The National Pastime. Chuck also founded the Baseball and the Media Committee in 2013 and currently serves as its chair emeritus. A Detroit native who is a proud Tigers fan despite too many recent rebuilds, Chuck lives with his lovely wife Terrie in Chicago, where he still plays in two rec softball leagues against the advice of his orthopedic surgeon.</chuck.sabr@gmail.com>
2:00 p.m.-2:25 p.m. (Great Lakes A)
RP14: A Hit Model from the MLB 2023 Season: Are the Things They Call Groundballs Still Outs?
Don Slavik
The greatly increased utilization of the infield shift prior to 2023, coupled with the public release of Baseball Savant data on launch speed, launch angle, and spray angle, provides an extensive dataset for baseball analysts and modelers. This data became all the more useful when MLB decided to rein in the extent of shifting in 2023. While Slavik had already tested a 2023 prediction model for describing the effects of making that change, his previous calculations did not include the launch angle variable and were limited to a small sample of elite left-handed hitters. In this presentation, he extends his earlier work with launch angle data and applies it to a larger set of hitters.
Donald Slavik <don.slavik@icloud.com> is currently an Aerospace Consultant and an MLB grounds crew member. He has authored a wide range of technical papers on material behavior and component life prediction before retiring as a GE Aerospace Engineer in 2022. He has recently used his statistics/modeling background to author his first baseball technical paper for publication in the Baseball Research Journal (Spring 2024). Don earned a Ph.D. from the University of Virginia. He has master’s and bachelor’s degrees from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.</don.slavik@icloud.com>
2:30 p.m.-2:55 p.m. (Great Lakes B/C)
RP15: The Northern League and the Rebirth of Independent Baseball
John J. Burbridge Jr.
For 50-plus years, the farm system model created by Branch Rickey defined the structure of the minor leagues. But in the early 1990s, MLB forced Minor League Baseball to accept decreases in their support of personnel and financing. Miles Wolff, publisher of Baseball America and one of the losing minor league representatives, saw this change as an opportunity to develop an independent minor league. By 1993, the six-team Northern League — including a St. Paul franchise owned by Mike Veeck and Bill Murray — was in operation. Although the Northern League eventually folded, Wolff’s concept flourished. Burbridge chronicles Wolff’s vital role in the independent league movement, which has become a well-established network of seven leagues and 75 independent teams.
Dr. John J. Burbridge Jr. <jjburbridgejr@gmail.com> is currently Professor Emeritus at Elon University where he was both a dean and professor. While at Elon he introduced and taught Baseball and Statistics. He has authored several SABR publications and presented at SABR Conventions, NINE, and the Seymour meetings. He is a lifelong New York Giants baseball fan. The greatest Giants-Dodgers game he attended was a 1-0 Giants’ victory in Jersey City in 1956. Yes, the Dodgers did play in Jersey City in 1956 and 1957.</jjburbridgejr@gmail.com>
2:30 p.m.-2:55 p.m. (Great Lakes A)
RP16: Assessment of the Last At-Bat in Situations Where the Winning Run Scores Before the Batter Reaches First Base
Yeon Woo Oh and Kum Kang Lee
Oh and Lee ask a deceptively simple question: In a walk-off situation, when does the game end? They identify what appear to be ambiguities in the Official Rules, which can affect not only the game outcome but also the results attributed to players in the official scorer’s reports. Resolving the ambiguities they discuss may also differ depending on the setting in which the game is played; do American baseball leagues and the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) come up with the same outcome? And what about high schools and colleges, which are sanctioned by their own ruling bodies? The authors use case study comparisons to address a subject you may have never even thought about.
Yeon Woo Oh and Kum Kang Lee <kumkang.lee.89@gmail.com> are columnists of YAGONGSO, a Korean baseball expert community. Oh, known as “Doc,” has contributed to organizing the history of Korean baseball in many ways, including the KBO Boxscore Project. Oh earned a BA in mathematical sciences from Seoul National University and an MD from Yonsei University. He is working on an MA in biostatistics at Yonsei University. Lee is an umpire of the Greater St. Louis Association of Umpires, researching baseball rules and comparative baseball culture. Lee is working on a series of articles to explain difficult baseball rules from the perspective of umpires. Lee graduated from Seoul National University with a BA in political science and an MA in international relations.</kumkang.lee.89@gmail.com>
3:00 p.m.-3:25 p.m. (Great Lakes B/C)
RP17: Charles Comiskey in St. Paul and the Road to the American League
John Bauer
Before there were White Sox (or Stockings), before there was an American League, Charles Comiskey owned a professional baseball team. In this presentation, Bauer traces Comiskey’s path as team owner in the Western League between 1895 and 1900. Aided by his longtime friend Ban Johnson, who had been a Cincinnati journalist while Comiskey played first base with the Reds, Comiskey bought the Sioux City club in the Western League and immediately moved it to St. Paul. It was in Minnesota’s capital city that Comiskey honed his skills at building and running a baseball club, while also pressing to locate a ballpark for his club to play in. The lessons he learned in St. Paul soon made Comiskey a leading voice in the major leagues.
John Bauer <jwbauer72@gmail.com> resides with his wife and two children (although one is now at college) in Bedford, New Hampshire. By day, he is senior vice president and general counsel of an insurance group headquartered in Manchester, New Hampshire, with specialties in corporate and regulatory law. By night, he spends many spring and summer evenings staying up too late to watch the San Francisco Giants, and he is a year-round avid reader of baseball, history, and baseball history. He is a past and ongoing contributor to various SABR projects.</jwbauer72@gmail.com>
3:00 p.m.-3:25 p.m. (Great Lakes A)
RP18: The Position, the Whole Position, and Nothing but the Position
Neal Traven
Flipping the script from last year’s study of nine-position players, Traven now examines major leaguers who played one and only one position in their careers. Unlike other all-time marks, the record for games played solely at one position can decrease as well as increase. For instance, Bill Mazeroski held the 2B-only record until he filled in at 3B in June 1971, at which point the 2B-only record immediately fell by nearly 200 games (Bobby Doerr). These records differ widely across positions, as do their patterns over time. Some positions saw significant specialization as early as the 1890s, while others have never seen much specialization at all. Note: In this presentation, the phrases “defensive record” and “Manny Ramírez” will be uttered in the same sentence.
Neal Traven <beisbol@alumni.pitt.edu> has been SABR Secretary, Statistical Analysis Co-Chair, creator of the peer-review system for review and judging of convention presentations, and a SABR member since 1984. In 2023, he won the Bob Davids Award. A retired epidemiologist, the graduate of Dartmouth and Pitt has written or co-written numerous peer-reviewed research papers. His lifelist includes 47 US states and 51 MLB ballparks. He and wife Elizabeth Gray reside in West Seattle, enjoying the spectacular view of Puget Sound from their newly renovated home.</beisbol@alumni.pitt.edu>
3:30 p.m.-3:55 p.m. (Great Lakes B/C)
RP19: Smokers and Saints: The Florida State League and Tampa Bay’s Long Forgotten First Professional Baseball Teams, 1919-1926
Mark Panuthos
By now, the narrative of Florida’s designation as MLB’s spring training destination is well-worn. MLB franchises, lured by the state’s warm weather and favorable accommodations, spend the month of March there training for the regular season. But this narrative obscures both MLB’s earlier spring training legacy in New South cities and that spring training represented as much an attempt to control “barnstorming” exhibition games as it did an opportunity for conditioning and preparation. In the Tampa Bay area, this narrative further masks an intense rivalry between the cities of Tampa and St. Petersburg and the professional league and teams that early spring training forays helped to launch. Panuthos focuses on both the league and the competition between the Tampa Smokers and St. Petersburg Saints. He casts light on important questions regarding the origins of baseball in Tampa Bay. Who did the major league teams play once they got to Florida? How did such small localities as Florida cities were in the 1920s maintain such long and loyal relationships with major league franchises given limited resources? He discusses the three Hall of Famers that Tampa produced, and how it was St. Petersburg rather than Tampa that ultimately landed an MLB franchise.
Mark Panuthos <bronxzoosouth@yahoo.com> is currently the Head of Upper School at Admiral Farragut Academy in St. Petersburg, Florida, and an adjunct professor of history at St. Petersburg College. He has previously submitted articles for SABR, Cigar City Magazine, and Bronx Baseball Daily.</bronxzoosouth@yahoo.com>
3:30 p.m.-3:55 p.m. (Great Lakes A)
RP20: A Geek’s Peek at Streaks
Ed Denta
Current online data on MLB team winning and losing streaks is somewhat limited, consisting mostly of listings of the longest streaks in each league and/or team. To expand content, Denta provides a comprehensive examination of streaks from a practical, analytic perspective. Using basic probability theory and an easy-to-understand sliding decision sequence, he develops and explains a set of mathematical expressions, verified by simulations, that predict the frequency and length of winning and losing streaks. A byproduct of the meticulous research for this paper is a user-interactive database that provides graphical, seasonal timelines of every MLB team’s winning and losing streaks since 1901. His ultimate goal is to convert the user-interactive database into a hands-on tool for fans to visualize and explore baseball’s all-time winning and losing streaks.
Ed Denta <eddenta@tampabay.rr.com> is a retired electrical/systems engineer and a lifelong baseball fanatic and trivia buff. During his professional working career, Ed got out from behind the desk to fuel his passion for the sport by umpiring high school baseball on Florida’s Gulf Coast for 18 years. In retirement, he combines his analytical background with his fervor of sports history and statistics to research and author sports-related documents and products. He is an active member of SABR’s Roush-Lopez Tampa Bay Chapter.</eddenta@tampabay.rr.com>
Saturday, August 10
9:00 a.m.-9:25 a.m. (Great Lakes B/C)
RP21: Arête and Agon in the Life and Legacy of Major League Umpire Bill Kinnamon: The Man for Whom the Game Always Mattered Most
George DeMarco Jr.
DeMarco describes and interprets the life and times of the late William “Bill” Kinnamon, an American League umpire from 1960-1969, and a teacher of umpires whose influence on baseball continues to resound into the 21st century. From the time a crippling injury ended his on-field career in June 1969 until his death in 2011, Kinnamon was an extraordinarily talented and dedicated teacher of umpires. As an instructor under Bill McGowan, and then at the Al Somers Umpire School in Daytona Beach throughout the 1950s-60s; Chief Instructor for baseball’s original Umpire Development Program; and subsequently as the owner-operator of his own schools in Florida and California, Kinnamon’s influence on baseball at all levels lives on in the “students of his students,” as well as in the current generation of MLB umpires, umpire instructors and supervisors. The modern-day embodiment of ancient Greek virtues Arête (valor, humility, excellence) and Agon (competition, struggle, agony), Kinnamon profoundly impacted the lives of his students, many of whom went on to umpire in the major leagues. Kinnamon not only guided many men to the major leagues, but also to become influential teachers of umpires themselves — including Joe Brinkman, Jim Evans, and the late Harry Wendelstedt, who was Bill’s student at the Somers School in 1962.
Dr. George M. DeMarco Jr. <demarco1@udayton.edu> is Professor Emeritus of Physical Education-Sport Studies at the University of Dayton and a former professional umpire. His physical education and sport-related research has appeared in more than 25 peer-reviewed publications, including primary sourced data-based research articles, book chapters, position papers, scholarly reviews, and electronic media. He has also made more than 125 presentations at international, national, regional, state, institutional, local conferences, symposia, workshops, and meetings, including at the North American Society for Sport History, American Alliance for Health, Physical Education, Recreation, Dance, and the SABR Dayton Chapter.</demarco1@udayton.edu>
9:00 a.m.-9:25 a.m. (Great Lakes A)
RP22: The “Baseball Card .300” Hitter: An Endangered Species
Matthew J. Prigge
Much had been made of the recent and ongoing decline in major league batting averages — both in their league-wide totals and in the dwindling number of seasons in which players reach the once-esteemed .300 mark. But what of the “Baseball Card .300” hitter? That is, an active and qualified player who holds a lifetime .300 average or better, a player whose baseball card for a given year will display a .300+ mark in the bottom right corner of their statistics? Entering the 2024 season, just three qualified players hold a career .300 average, an all-time low among AL/NL hitters. And only one of those — Jose Altuve — is assured of maintaining his career .300 average into 2025. This breed of hitter, which as recently as 2002 included 28 qualified players, is on the brink of extinction. Prigge charts the history of the Baseball Card .300 hitter, from its peak in 1930 to its thin years in the late 1970s and ‘80s, and its resurgence in the 1990s. He also looks forward at what appears to be a grim future for the Baseball Card .300 hitter.
Matthew J. Prigge <mjprigge@gmail.com> is a member of the Ken Keltner Chapter and a librarian at Marquette University in Milwaukee. He wrote the weekly “Brew Crew Confidential” column for Milwaukee’s Shepherd Express newspaper between 2016 and 2017 and published Opening Day in Milwaukee: The Brewers’ Season-Starters, 1970-2022 in 2023. He presented on the 1995 replacement player spring training at SABR 51 in Chicago last year.</mjprigge@gmail.com>
9:30 a.m.-9:55 a.m. (Great Lakes B/C)
RP23: Mike Donlin, 1907: Will He or Won’t He?
Steve Steinberg
Mike Donlin was one of the biggest stars of baseball when he walked away from the game and his New York Giants after the 1908 season to join his famous wife on Broadway for enormous payouts. After finishing second in batting & slugging averages, he skipped the 1909 and 1910 seasons. But he also missed 1907, almost two years before he focused on acting, after a few months of “Will He or Won’t He” play for the Giants dominated the press. What he did instead that summer revealed much about the man — his strengths and weaknesses and his passion for life and wife. Steinberg reveals forgotten aspects of life in America, a summer in the life of one of the greatest forgotten stars of the game. He explores a summer in the center of the baseball universe (not New York City!), integrated baseball involving Black pitcher Rube Foster and, surprisingly, segregationist Cap Anson. The story is a window onto a vibrant semi-pro baseball scene with arguably the greatest semi-pro team ever. Finally, it even includes a look at a then-famous cure for alcoholism, from a company that had clinics throughout the country and western Europe.
Steve Steinberg <ssteinberg@trinorth.com> has collaborated with Lyle Spatz on four books, including their latest on the life of Mike Donlin. Their three previous books have won national awards, including the 2011 SABR Seymour Medal for 1921. Steve has also written a biography of Urban Shocker and edited The World Series in the Deadball Era, with the support of SABR’s Deadball Era Committee. He has presented at numerous SABR conventions and published in both The National Pastime and the Baseball Research Journal.</ssteinberg@trinorth.com>
9:30 a.m.-9:55 a.m. (Great Lakes A)
RP24: Using Simulation Technology to Enhance Baseball Analytical Knowledge in Higher Education Sport Management Courses
Zack Binkley
Simulation technology has become a tremendous tool in education. Binkley discusses how to use simulators and video games to enhance the knowledge of baseball analytics in various higher education sport management courses. He evaluates the evolution of baseball simulators and video games, and how simulators are used in higher education, through a meta-analysis. Pedagogical strategies on how these mediums can be added to courses to enhance the overall knowledge of baseball analytics in sports management students will be explored. Binkley highlights case studies from sports analytics courses at Lewis University, Loyola University Chicago, and the University of Michigan. He features ways the general public can become more educated on analytics in baseball through simulator technology and video game mediums, illustrating how simulators and video games can help the public understand analytics in baseball.
Dr. Zachary Binkley <zbinkley@umich.edu> is a clinical assistant professor of Sport Management at the University of Michigan School of Kinesiology. He is also the director of innovative teaching and learning for the school. He previously taught at Loyola University Chicago and served as the founding director of the Exercise and Movement Science Program at Lewis University. He earned a PhD in education from Northcentral University, a master’s degree in exercise science from California University of Pennsylvania, and a bachelor’s degree in fitness and sport from Millikin University.</zbinkley@umich.edu>
10:00 a.m.-10:25 a.m. (Great Lakes B/C)
RP25: The Giants, the A’s, and Silicon Valley
Steve Treder
When the National League approved the relocation of the New York Giants to San Francisco for the 1958 season, the Bay Area metropolitan region’s economic base was its status as a major seaport. The primary locally-produced exports weren’t technological, but agricultural. In the late 1960s, when the Kansas City Athletics moved into Oakland — across the bay from San Francisco, and with an economy even more concentrated around oceangoing shipping — the region had not yet sufficiently grown to support two major-league franchises. Consequently, for many years both teams struggled with attendance, and each very nearly was relocated elsewhere. Not until the late 1980s was the area’s economic foundation ample for two franchises to thrive simultaneously. The region’s growth was driven by a dramatically transformed economy. The spectacularly fast and huge development of a brand-new “high technology” industry led to San Jose and Santa Clara County supplanting San Francisco and becoming the world’s mightiest economic engine, known globally as Silicon Valley. Treder illuminates the dynamics behind the new courses that the San Francisco Giants and the Oakland A’s were forced to chart to optimize attractiveness to Silicon Valley money and power.
Steve Treder <stevet@wmgnet.com> is the author of the Seymour Medal-winning biography Forty Years a Giant: The Life of Horace Stoneham. He wrote a weekly column on baseball history for The Hardball Times for more than 10 years. He has presented his work many times at the Cooperstown Symposium, the NINE Conference, and the SABR National Convention. When he grows up, he intends to play center field for the San Francisco Giants.</stevet@wmgnet.com>
10:00 a.m.-10:25 a.m. (Great Lakes A)
RP26: Is It Authentic?
Michael Kane
Perhaps you have in your collection, or are thinking of purchasing, what might be an artifact that could be a part of baseball history. It might be something from a long-gone stadium, a bat, or a uniform. However, there is little or no documentation about the piece. No authentication letter from a major auction house, no bill of sale, and no back story from the original owner. With so many scams in the hobby, how do you know if it is authentic? Kane recaps the hope, despair, and joy he experienced during a two-year journey to authenticate a wooden scoreboard number that he received as a birthday present during the pandemic. It is also a story about total strangers who provided their time, guidance, and support throughout his journey. Kane talks about the key role SABR played in his journey and how this odyssey led to a new friendship with a former major league baseball player who played in three All-Star Games. He concludes with some lessons learned that will provide collectors with insights on how to authenticate items that they own or are thinking of purchasing.
Michael Kane <michael_kane1@mac.com> has been a SABR member since 2018. He contributes posts to SABR’s Baseball Cards website. He is a high-tech sales and marketing executive with an undergraduate degree from Penn State and an MBA from Suffolk University. For the last 25 years he has been working on compiling a complete set of 1961 Topps baseball cards. He still has 40 cards to go.</michael_kane1@mac.com>
10:30 a.m.-10:55 a.m. (Great Lakes B/C)
RP27: The One Millionth Run
Mark Armour
On May 4, 1975, and for many years afterwards, Bob Watson of the Houston Astros was celebrated for scoring baseball’s one millionth run. As so much of baseball’s historical record has been modified over the years, Armour has often wondered about Watson’s signature feat. How did we determine the historical run total? How close were we in our 1975 reckoning? Or, for that matter, how confident should we be in our current run totals? Armour explains how the millionth run promotion (which prominently featured Stan Musial) came together, how the run total was determined, the daily countdown, the hijinks that took place on that May afternoon, and the effort that went into anointing Watson. He rechecks MLB’s math according to what they knew then. How strong were their math skills? He also explains how and why our run tally might have changed in the past 49 years. Was the milestone really reached on May 4, and, if not, when was it reached? Finally, he presents a brand-new model to make an educated guess as to who actually scored baseball’s one millionth run.
Mark Armour <markarmour04@gmail.com> is a veteran researcher on such varied subjects as: the player’s union, integration, artificial turf, cheating, team building, analysis, baseball cards, and platooning. He was the founder and longtime director of the BioProject and the co-founder of the Baseball Cards Committee.</markarmour04@gmail.com>
10:30 a.m.-10:55 a.m. (Great Lakes A)
RP28: Why Jim Kaat Would Have Been the 1966 AL Cy Young Award Winner (Had It Existed)
Steve Krevisky
1966 was the last year that only one Cy Young Award was given to a major-league pitcher, and it went to Sandy Koufax. Krevisky shows that, had there been an American League Cy Young Award, Jim Kaat of the Minnesota Twins should have won it hands down. Kaat won 25 games for the Twins and was the best pitcher in the AL that year in many other categories. Also, Kaat finished fifth (the highest ranked pitcher) in the AL MVP voting. Krevisky analyzes the pitching statistics from 1966 for this recent electee to the Hall of Fame, going deeply into the games that Kaat pitched, and why he had a career year, at age 27.
Steve Krevisky <skrevisky@mxcc.edu> is a Professor of Mathematics at Middlesex Community College in Middletown, Connecticut. He enjoys using baseball statistics in the math classes that he teaches. He has made numerous presentations at regional and national SABR meetings. Steve is the chapter President of the CT SABR Smoky Joe Wood Chapter that has several meetings during the year. He also has made presentations at international math and statistics conferences. Steve is a seven-time winner in the team trivia contests at the SABR national convention.</skrevisky@mxcc.edu>
1:00 p.m.-1:25 p.m. (Great Lakes B/C)
RP29: Gender Work: The Evolution of WAGs from Support System to Celebrity Influencer
Allison Levin
Historically, Major League Baseball players’ wives and girlfriends (WAGs) occupied rather thankless jobs centered on the emotional labor of supporting their husbands, the team, and their husbands’ career goals. Specific work, typically defined as gender work, or the physical, behavioral, and self-presentational process of performing the expectations of gender norms, became central to the expectations of a WAG. Even when celebrities married ballplayers, such as Marilyn Monroe or Kate Upton, they put the players’ needs before their own. In recent years, WAGs have begun to use the celebrity of their husband to build a name for themselves by demonstrating on social media the emotional labor and gender work they perform daily. Levin explores the phenomenon of the baseball WAG and how the gender work and emotional labor have not changed — the needs of the players always come first — but the women performing these roles have.
Allison Levin <allison.levin@gmail.com> is a Professor of Sports Communications and member of SABR’s Board of Directors. Her research is rooted in the modern trends in baseball. She is a lifelong St. Louis Cardinals fan, though her favorite player is Clayton Kershaw.</allison.levin@gmail.com>
1:00 p.m.-1:25 p.m. (Great Lakes A)
RP30: Cardinal Dreams: The Legacy of Charlie Peete and a Life Cut Short
Danny Spewak
Seven decades ago, a promising St. Louis Cardinals rookie named Charlie Peete became the first active major-leaguer to lose his life in a commercial plane crash, when his flight to Caracas crashed into the mountains of Venezuela in November 1956. Although Peete played only 23 games in the majors, the reigning Triple-A batting champion was expected to compete for the Cardinals’ starting center field job in 1957 and could have become the first Black position player in franchise history to start a full season in the everyday lineup. Yet, all these years later, Peete’s name is shrouded in mystery and obscurity. As one of the first Black players in Cardinals history during the franchise’s early years of integration, Peete helped lay the groundwork for the talented and diverse Cardinal teams of the 1960s that appeared in three World Series. Spewak aims to raise greater awareness about Peete’s contributions to the sport and his role in the integration of professional baseball during a critical time in American history.
Danny Spewak <dnspewak@gmail.com> is a journalist with more than a decade of experience as a television news reporter in Minneapolis, Buffalo (New York), and Columbia (Missouri). A native of St. Louis and graduate of the University of Missouri, Spewak is the author of two nonfiction books on sports history, both published by Rowman & Littlefield. His first book, From the Gridiron to the Battlefield: Minnesota’s March to a College Football Title and into World War II, was a finalist for the Emilie Buchwald Award for Minnesota Nonfiction. Spewak’s second book, Cardinal Dreams: The Legacy of Charlie Peete and a Life Cut Short, was published in March 2024.</dnspewak@gmail.com>
1:30 p.m.-1:55 p.m. (Great Lakes B/C)
RP31: John McGraw’s Florida Land Investment Fiasco
Dan Levitt
In the mid-1920s America was in the midst of a Florida land boom. In 1925, New York Giants manager John McGraw was convinced by several promoters to put his name behind a massive land development venture near Sarasota, Florida. Dubbed Pennant Park, the development totaled nearly 1,500 acres to be built out with high-end homes and a business district. Luxurious programmed amenities included polo, a yacht club, golf, trap shooting, and a spring training quality ballpark. McGraw became so enmeshed in the development that there were reports he was going to step down as manager and hand the reins to Frankie Frisch, reports made more credible by Frisch’s weak denial. Levitt discusses how McGraw was double-teamed by his naivete and the collapse of the land boom. McGraw was never really the same after the Pennant Park debacle. He became excessively bitter toward many of his players; he no longer exerted complete control over the Giants front office; and opposing players mocked him for the development’s failure. The story of Pennant Park is a fascinating piece of both baseball history and Americana.
Dan Levitt <dan@daniel-levitt.com> is the author of several award-winning baseball books and numerous essays. He is the Treasurer of SABR and co-chair of SABR’s Business of Baseball Committee. Dan is a recipient of SABR’s Bob Davids Award and the Henry Chadwick Award. His latest book, Intentional Balk: Baseball’s Thin Line Between Innovation and Cheating (coauthored with Mark Armour), was awarded the Seymour Medal.</dan@daniel-levitt.com>
1:30 p.m.-1:55 p.m. (Great Lakes A)
RP32: Rose-Colored Glasses and Foggy Lenses: Looking at Hall of Fame Voting by the BBWAA
Alan Holst
Holst explores the relationship of awards, statistics, and analytics to Hall of Fame voting. He focuses on BBWAA voting, both for time limitations and to avoid blamestorming of the Veterans Committee. The history, performance, and appropriate role for those committees deserve their own presentation. He addresses three important questions: Which milestones or types of milestones seem to have been most important to voters? What causes reputations to rise or fall from when a player was active to when he appears on the ballot, or during his time on the ballot? Finally, what are the historical trends in voting standards? Holst offers a quantifiable outline, comparing various milestones against analytics and how they stand up against HOF predictors. He also considers the impact of “moral standards” such as PEDs in recent years, spitballs and booze in the 1920s, and cocaine in the 1980s. While voting will always be a matter of opinion, what can be done to make those opinions as informed as possible?
Alan Holst <alanholst@hotmail.com> is a retired Foreign Service Officer who served in Japan, Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, the Philippines, Mexico, Bolivia, and Washington, DC during his career with the State Department. He taught English in Japan and the US, was celebrity liaison for the Los Angeles International Film Festival, and for the Halsey Hall Chapter was co-coordinator of the 1988 SABR National Convention and producer and host of the television program Baseball Roundtable. Alan lived on the Red Lake Reservation as a child and is a graduate of UCLA’s film school. He lives with his wife in Oregon and has three adult children.</alanholst@hotmail.com>
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