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From SABR member Aaron Gleeman at Baseball Prospectus on February 8, 2019: Who is the best player in baseball for each age group? PECOTA projections came out yesterday, so let’s use the projected WARP totals for this season as our main guide while also leaving a little room for subjectivity if/when it seems necessary. Best […]

From Jonathan Judge at Baseball Prospectus on February 6, 2020: PECOTA Week 2020 brings us a different PECOTA than what we’re used to. This is not merely a fresh coat of paint. Let’s get the most conspicuous difference out of the way, which is a matter of presentation: This year, we are releasing the different […]

From SABR member Rob Mains at Baseball Prospectus on February 7, 2017: You shouldn’t bet on baseball. OK, now that we’ve got that out of the way let’s talk about Wall Street, which some of you probably think of the same way as betting on baseball. One of the sayings you hear about Wall Street […]

From SABR member Rob Mains at Baseball Prospectus on March 19, 2020: Flip a coin ten times and you’ll probably come up with a combination of heads and tails. Probably. But not always. On rare occasions, you might get heads ten times in a row. The odds of it are 1 in 1,024. Your chances […]

From Patrick Dubuque at Baseball Prospectus on February 12, 2018: You’re familiar with the Santayana quote, I’m sure: “Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” You know why it happens, though, right? Because learning from history sucks. You generally don’t sit down and critique your victories, unless you’re writing a reflective […]

From SABR member Rob Mains at Baseball Prospectus on September 28, 2017: This turned out to be pretty good season for prediction systems in general and our PECOTA in particular. PECOTA thought that Boston, Cleveland, and Houston would win the American League divisions, with Los Angeles and Chicago taking the National League West and Central, […]

From SABR member Aaron Gleeman at Baseball Prospectus on February 21, 2017: “Breakout” can mean different things to different people. It can mean a prospect or untested young big leaguer establishing himself as a valuable regular. It can mean a relative unknown becoming an impact player. It can mean a well-known star making the leap […]

From SABR member Aaron Gleeman at Baseball Prospectus on February 7, 2017: I have a vivid memory from my little league days of sitting in the dugout after practice and listening intently as a teammate read Baseball America’s rankings of the best players in the country by age. The best player on our team, who […]

From SABR member Ben Lindbergh at Baseball Prospectus on February 4, 2014: The PECOTA projections are here, which means that many of you will spend the day exploring the weighted-means spreadsheet and the Depth Charts in search of surprises and confirmations that it’s okay to crush on the players whose performance you’ve been awaiting all […]

From SABR member Colin Wyers at Baseball Prospectus on February 11, 2013: Welcome to the initial launch of this year’s PECOTA forecasts. We hope you find them enlightening, useful, and predictive. Let’s start with the business aspects of things. In order to access the PECOTA forecasts, you need to be a subscriber to Baseball Prospectus. […]